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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy Forecasts May Be Underestimating Democrats
Why Forecasts May Be Underestimating Democrats
https://politicalwire.com/2018/10/20/why-forecasts-may-be-underestimating-democrats/
October 20, 2018 at 2:44 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard
"SNIP.......
Nate Silver: The fundraising numbers are so good for Democrats and so bad for Republicans that its hard to know quite what to make of them. From a modeling standpoint, were extrapolating from years in which fundraising was relatively even, or from when one party had a modest edge, into an environment where Democrats suddenly have a 2-1 advantage in fundraising in competitive races. Moreover, this edge comes despite the fact that a large number of these competitive races feature Republican incumbents (incumbents usually have an easier time raising money than challengers) and that most of them are in red terrain.
If Democrats beat their projections on Nov. 6 say, they win 63 House seats, equalling the number that Republicans won in 2010, an unlikely-but-not-impossible scenario we may look back on these fundraising numbers as the canary in the coal mine.
That data, plus Democrats very strong performances in special elections, could look like tangible signs of a Democratic turnout surge that pollsters and pundits perhaps wont have paid enough attention to. Right now, in fact, the polls are not showing a Democratic turnout advantage.
......SNIP"
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)Noticed a couple weeks back,his statements suggested the Polls are not counting something and he mentioned the same scenerio about the Mid-Terms.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)Always hedging his bet so he can say "I was right" no matter what happens
Va Lefty
(6,252 posts)bronxiteforever
(9,287 posts)CreekDog
(46,192 posts)because statistical predictions are not *knowledge".
just because you're willing to say you're sure what will or won't happen doesn't make you correct.
Gothmog
(145,231 posts)My son and I both got calls today from a Beto phone banker. I had a Democratic block walker hit my house last week.
I get robo calls but this was a nice phone banking call.