I think the NY Times Siena polls are horrible but

[standingtall]

look at intention of voting in the poll that has the repuke up by 2

Already voted 30% Democrats 51% republicans 45%




https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-azsen-3.html

[FBaggins]

1. Actually... Sienna has a great reputation

The NYTimes? Not as much... but it depends who they get to do the work for them

[standingtall]

3. The Tennessee poll they did with Blackburn up 14

only had a 1 point advantage for Bredesen among voters between 18 to 29. Even in a red state like Tennessee I can't buy that. The Democrats lead among that demographic group should be much larger.

[FBaggins]

5. One poll that you don't like is a looong way from a pollster being "horrible"

Virtually every reported poll is at the 95% confidence interval... which means that even with a ~4% MOE, 1/20 polls can be expected to end up outside of that range. I've seen more Siena polls in Senate/House races this cycle than any other... we can expect a few of them to be well off (though we're clearly behind in TN).

had a 1 point advantage for Bredesen among voters between 18 to 29

They had to call almost 25,000 people just to get ~600 to answer their questions. Only 38 of those were 18-29 - which implies a 16% margin of error.

[LonePirate]

2. All of their polls seem to have a Republican bias baked into them.

Either they are underestimating Dem turnout in November or we’re in for a closer than expected result in two weeks.

[FBaggins]

6. Their historical bias is very slightly in the other direction

Unfortunately, I think what you're seeing is that most of their senate polls (the ones getting the most attention) are in the most competitive races... and we've lost some ground there in the last couple weeks.

But the one they just published for the FL-27th was very encouraging compared to the most recent Mason-Dixon poll (the gold standard IMO).

[Joe941]

7. I can't see this election being close...

not after all tRump and his cronies have done.

[book_worm]

4. I don't think they are horrible...

These are by and large GOP districts and Dems are either winning or within striking distance. Even this AZ senate race poll which they have McSally up by 2 shows that if turnout is among those certain to vote Sinema leads by 7. Also undecideds are at 6% and the poll states that those people look to be mostly democrats based on their positions on issues, so if they break for the Democrat that could carry her to victory.