My current Senate prediction...

[brooklynite]

We hold IN, MO, FL, WV

We take AZ, NV

We lose ND

That puts us at 50-50.

We will not win TX (despite the enthusiasm for O'Rourke, he's consistently down in the polls, and each 1% we have to overcome represents about 40,000 votes.)

Senate control boils down to Bredesen in TN.

[redstateblues]

1. Here in TN,I can tell that Blackheart's campaign is extremely worried

Their lies have become more far fetched the closer we get to Nov 6. Phil continues to pound Blackheart for her taking $800K from Opioid manufacturers to sponsor a law that stopped the DEA from suing the drug makers and getting the opioids off the street. The problem for Blackheart is that unlike all the mud she is throwing, this story, as reported on 60 Minutes, is true. In addition, it is sticking in rural areas, which should be Blackheart's stronghold. Nashville and Memphis will be strong for Bredesen. It is a good strategy- I think we have a good shot at winning this. It will be tight though.

[Gothmog]

2. Report from Austin

Link to tweet

[bearsfootball516]

3. I think that's the most probable result, and it echos what I've believed for a while.

Manchin is dominating the polls, he'll win. Donnelly has been consistently ahead and he'll win by a decent margin. Nelson gets carried in by massive Gillum turnout, and the blue wave carries McCaskill to a close win in what would have been a loss without the wave.

Heitkamp is getting destroyed in every poll. I don't mean to be negative, but it's what it is at this point. She's cooked, and people donating to her should probably look to move their money to more competitive senate races.

Sinema and Rosen ride the blue wave as well.

Beto does fantastically well...but it's Texas, and he falls by about 5 points. Same with Bredesen. He does well, but loses a very, very close race.

Considering how brutal the Senate map is this year for us, going 50-50 is a fantastic feat...hell even being down 49-51 would be impressive. And it sets us up EXTREMELY well for 2020 when we have virtually no one vulnerable up and several vulnerable Republicans, including Susan Collins.

[redstateblues]

4. I think Bredesen has a better shot than Beto. It will be tighter here either way than 5.

[JCMach1]

5. I think you are spot on, then we have 3 shots to pull an upset... I still keep ND in play

so TX, TN, and ND... I still have a feeling we may take the Senate.

[brooklynite]

7. The last three ND polls were -10, -12, -16...

...I'm not seeing a positive trend.

[JCMach1]

8. ND has bucked polling in the past... GOTV and let's see what happens

TX is also a lot closer because 'likely voter' polling only follows past extremely poor (last in the nation) turnout models. It's a single digit race in TX that will be determined by the turnout.

[DFW]

6. Beto wins people over when he meets them

I don't know if he'll have chalked up enough miles by election day, and Cruz does have the corrupt Abbott machine behind him, but enthusiasm for Beto is wild and widespread. I would not bet money either way on Texas OR Tennessee this time.

[vercetti2021]

9. Want my crazy prediction?

Beto wins and we take the senate. Texas will finally tread to purple instead of red.

[duforsure]

10. I agree

The crowds this morning were amazingly large and mostly Beto voters . So far , so good. HE has a greater chance than is predicted winning against cruz , who is really hated here , and in Congress. He'll vote to destroy Social Security also with trump behind it all . Like he's doing to all health care, destroy it for everyone then blame the Democrats because they destroyed it. How stupid are th etrump voters going to feel like when they realize he's destroying all Medicaid, Medicare, and now Social Security and giving billions of dollars yearly to the wealthy that bribed trump and the gopers to get them their huge tax cuts or else they wouldn't back them again, or bribes to get them billions, and from robbing from the rest of us.

[vercetti2021]

11. Thank you!

Preach it! This is how it is and how it will be. Stupid will vote as they do because you know stupid. Non educated love to vote the stupid way.

Beto will be the biggest reason the shift in this state will happen, he jumped started something great and him winning would push it to Texas flipping. Even if he loses by 1% that should scare the unholy fuck out of Repukes in Texas. Demographics are changing extremely fast here with Latino voters, transplants from other states, and old white voters dying off. Once Texas goes blue, the GOP won't win again. Dems will have the 55 and 38 electoral votes and that alone would be the death sentence.

[Cosmocat]

13. If Beto wins - the House will be a blood bath similar to what the Rs got in 2010

The wave will have to be THAT big ...

He is wonderful, and it is a wonderful story, but such a LONG jump on Texas for a D.

[vercetti2021]

14. It isn't out of the possibility

I've been on the ground for months and seen a lot more signs for Beto in the reddest part of my state (Amarillo) than Cruz. This state is going to change because of the demographics that are rapidly changing and it'll be close. But I think he'll pull it out.

[Autumn]

12. Blue wave?