Hurricane Willa is now Catt5

[malaise]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/173645.shtml?cone#contents


Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
1200 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WILLA
MOVING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 107.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

------------
Mexico has time for nothing but this catastrophe about to happen.

This will create serious problems for rivers across Mexico
Texas and Louisiana can expect serious rain as this disaster is moving at 7mph

[BigmanPigman]

1. Will the RW nuts say this is God's will to stop the

migrant caravan from coming to murder and rape innocent tRump fans? Wil they suggest that Soros will send yachts and planes to bring them here?

[malaise]

2. Then they'll have to explain Florence and Michael

Given that this will affect both Texas and Louisiana, it looks more like Mother Nature has unleashed a war on Southern Red States. Personally I thinkMother Nature hates Don the Con.

[BigmanPigman]

5. Mother Nature should hate him.

Besides hating Climate Change facts he also hates strong women and Mother Nature is one Hell of a strong woman. I wish she would send a tornado through the oval office when he is in it.

[malaise]

7. I'd prefer lightning to strike a golf course

in Florida

[BigmanPigman]

8. Better yet!

Sort of like the ending of The Bad Seed. ZAP!

[BumRushDaShow]

3. Yup

PLUS they believe that once it traverses the peninsula and emerges out in the Gulf of Mexico, either the remnant of it or moisture leftover from it will interact with a large dip in the jetstream to help spin up a nor'easter along the east coast, which could result in snow up in New England and more windswept rain in areas along the coast that got impacted by Florence.

[malaise]

4. I was wondering if it could reorganize if it makes it to

The Gulf of Mexico

[BumRushDaShow]

10. I was caught in one that did that

Back in '89 on vacation in Acapulco. Hurricane Cosme came right over us as a Cat 1 a couple nights after we arrived -




It eventually went across Mexico and emerged out in the GOM where back then, the NWS renamed it "Allison" (it remained a tropical storm through to landfall), and that ended up hitting TX -



The remnants of it eventually made their way to Philly so I got hit with it twice.

It caused some pretty severe flooding too!



After that, the NHC decided not to rename storms if they manage to hang onto some circulation when crossing from the Pacific to the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico (or the reverse).

[malaise]

12. Wow!

That's amazing.
This will be horrific for Mexico and the US better pay attention.
We're having way too many major hurricanes and floods - humans will have to deal with climate change.
This one has lost some intensity - it's back at Cat4.

[BumRushDaShow]

14. Yes it will - especially since this one is a Cat 5!!!

Cosme was a Cat 1 and it flooded out the residents on the other side of the cliffs along Acapulco Bay and I think 30 people died. I remember waking up in the middle of the night after the storm had gone quiet and could see the stars. Then all hell broke loose again.

The one thing that will help however is the topogaphy of that peninsula. There is huge mountain range there and that will probably help to tear up the storm before it gets to the Gulf. Plus they expect that this one will weaken as it approaches. The last update that I saw on my weather forum is that it is going through an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) right now, which means that during that process, it weakens a bit but then when it reforms the new eye, it will probably be a bit bigger and possibly stronger - but will have to see if that happens just before landfall or what. Michael never got chance to go through an ERC and came bursting into FL full speed and "hot".

[BigmanPigman]

6. I wonder if it will effect midterm voting?

[BumRushDaShow]

11. It depends on how or if it reforms in the Gulf of Mexico

and how much rain it might generate. They are calling for us to get some impact from whatever it spins up out in the Atlantic this coming weekend so they seem to expect it to move quickly at some point. I don't think there would be a direct impact on the elections unless places remain flooded out for a week after it blows through.

[blm]

9. Yikes

.

[BumRushDaShow]

15. Congrats on your "baby" voting by the way!

[malaise]

24. Now Cat3 but only moving at 5mph

Last edited Tue Oct 23, 2018, 07:24 AM - Edit history (1)

This means tomorrow not today

The cone has shifted - doesn't look like it will make it to the Gulf of Mexico..

[BumRushDaShow]

25. Willa was a min Cat 4 & a disturbance is already in the Gulf with rain in TX and the coast

(from their 8 am ET update - minimal Cat 4, similar to 5 am)

---LATEST---
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 231151
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
600 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...CORE OF DANGEROUS WILLA TO PASS OVER LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
VERY SOON...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 107.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP4+shtml/231151.shtml?


----EARLIER----
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 230837
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...DANGEROUS WILLA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 107.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP4+shtml/230837.shtml?

You can see the visible sat imagery (from yesterday) of its extent -



So potentially leftover Willa moisture, along with moisture from TD Vincente (the blob southeast of Willa down the coast), could interact with that Gulf low and then it all gets sucked along the big forecast dip in the jetstream to spin up the Atlantic storm.

Edit to add GOES-17 (experimental) IR loop link - https://col.st/xIwwt

[malaise]

16. This is the 10th major hurricane formed in the Eastern Pacific this year

Humanity better wake up

[blm]

18. I have close friends who now live in Puerto Escondido.

I need to check out a map.

[malaise]

20. Here

https://www.accuweather.com/en/mx/puerto-escondido/239641/satellite/239641

[blm]

22. Thanks for that - looks like they'll escape another one.

.

[malaise]

23. It's looking more like high Cat2/low cat3 at landfall

And yes they should escape the worst

[Achilleaze]

13. republican lies about climate change are dangerous

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[malaise]

17. Wait 'til their base lose everything

Then they'll wake up

[joshcryer]

19. Looks like it'll drop to Cat 3.

If that.

Eye wall has broken up and it won't form before landfall. Really the best case scenario considering the circumstances. Will probably lead to significant death and destruction, though.

[malaise]

21. Yep

It's also picking up speed which should reduce the inland flooding