Robert Reich: Odds are against Dem takeover of House

[Algernon Moncrieff]

https://news.berkeley.edu/2018/10/31/robert-reich-odds-are-against-dem-takeover-of-house/

Rampant voter suppression and years of political gerrymandering make it unlikely Democrats will win enough seats to take control of the House of Representatives, said Robert Reich, a professor at UC Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy and former secretary of labor to President Bill Clinton.

Reich, speaking at a Tuesday evening panel about the midterm elections, said that he doubts Democratic voters are enthusiastic enough to outvote pro-Trump voters in districts engineered to favor Republican incumbents.

“I want to make sure we face the reality,” he said in his opening remarks. “State after state after state is engaged in a degree of voting suppression that in unprecedented in the modern era. I’m talking about the last 20 to 30 years. It is going to be very hard for Democrats in this election.”

Thirty years of falling wages have left white Americans frustrated, angry and susceptible to the kind of demagoguery President Donald Trump offers, he said.

[ZZenith]

1. Robert "Buzzkill" Reich.

I hope he’s just trying to use a little psychiatric jiu-jitsu and not actually, um, right.

If he’s right then all my future plans must change.

[CatMor]

2. Not very encouraging....

though what he says is true hopefully most see right through trump.

[violetpastille]

3. Okay so we face the "reality" and... ?

Don't give me a problem without a solution Robert Reich.

This is his big finish:

"So what is the strategy over the next two years? I would love to talk about that. I will end my upbeat presentation and take some questions, thank you very much."

Okay. Let's talk about that. On Nov 7th.

(wtf Robert Reich)

[BigmanPigman]

4. He is right.

I know that we have to have a BIG margin in the polls to overcome all their voting "tricks" that they have put into play for a LONG, LONG time. The GOP has been waging war on fair voting for as long as I can remember and they are very good at it. They know that the only way they can win and keep minority rule over the majority is to cheat, steal and lie which they do naturally...it is the GOP's MO.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. He gave the right ammunition to diminish a Blue Wave

SMFH

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I deleted a thread lambasting Reich for his channeling of Tokyo Rose.

Maybe this one should be deleted as well.

[mcar]

7. Agree

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Reich's lil stunt

Reich's lil stunt would be like a prominent Northerner saying on June 28th, 1863 that the Army Of the Potomac would be defeated at Gettysburg.

[mcar]

10. Not helpful at this late date

And one wonders why he'd do it.

[Maeve]

9. So we work hard to beat the odds

and realize that in districts engineered to favor Republicans we are going to face some defeats. Changing the gerrymandering is our next big project.

[Merlot]

13. He's right about voter suppression and gerrymandering - only solution is GOTV

Remoter when Michael Moore said trumpft was going to win and people got mad at him as if he wanted trumpft to win? It was a warning, not a wish. Same here.

We might actually take the house, but it's not a sure thing. We will make inroads in state legislatures and governorships.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

16. This is the correct answer.

Have you ever been to a casino? The odds are against you winning any given hand of blackjack, and the more you play, the more statistics suggest you will lose. However, it's not just a game of luck. Skill and strategy are involved as well. Good players can, and often do, beat the house even though the "odds are against them."

We have a great slate of candidates, and almost 60% of voters have consistently indicated they do not approve of the current occupant of the White House.

[Thekaspervote]

11. I quit reading his alternet.org site. Always negative, not always right. 538: Dems 6 in 7 chances to

Take the house

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I believe in his heart he wants us to lose because we're not pure enough for him.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

18. I don't think he wants us to lose, but I think he lacks faith in voters outside his academic bubble

He's not a dumb guy, and he's consistently opposed Trump and called for economic reform.

[Towlie]

14. Trust 538 and the folks who have money riding on the outcome!

Here's fivethirtyeight.com and Here's the PredictIt market.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. We could lose but it is much more likely we won't.

Reich gives succor to our political enemies.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

19. I'm a big admirer of Nate Silver

I hope Silver is right and Reich is wrong.

I also hope you don't read that aloud 5 times fast.

[PSPS]

17. "enthusiastic enough to outvote pro-Trump voters in districts engineered to favor Republican"

Reich, speaking at a Tuesday evening panel about the midterm elections, said that he doubts Democratic voters are enthusiastic enough to outvote pro-Trump voters in districts engineered to favor Republican incumbents.

In other words, if enough democratic voters bother to go to the polls, it can be done. So it's too early to "give up and not bother."