Nov 6th election results guide

[beachbum bob]

this is as good as any where else on what to watch for and when in the midterms


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-election-polls-close/

[mcar]

1. Thx

[dalton99a]

2. Kick

[YessirAtsaFact]

3. I'm watching VA-7 as well

We have a great shot at beating Brat, but this district has been red for at least 20 years.

If Spanberger wins, Democrats will almost certainly win the House.

If she wins by more than 5% it’s probably going to be a great night for Democrats

[beachbum bob]

4. there are 4 or 5 districts that the results will predict the extent of the wave

[jcgoldie]

5. Here's what I did...

I used this article from Nate Silver a couple of days ago where he ranks 105 house seats from the 190th most likely for democrats to win up to the 295th most likely (the house swings on seat 218)... I copied the text into a word document then printed out just the table (If you try to print the webpage you only get a piece of it because its on a scroll). Watching the returns then one should be able to keep tabs on what kind of night we're having based on how far down the table our pickups are (ie if we're picking up seats on the last couple of pages in red + districts it should be a great night).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-need-a-systematic-polling-error-to-win-the-house/

[beachbum bob]

6. Good idea