General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums538: "How To Watch The Midterms: An Hour-By-Hour Guide"
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-election-polls-close/Starting when the first polling places close at 6 p.m. Eastern, election night will be a whirlwind of tweets, numbers, emotions, speeches, pizza and live blogs. To see when polls close in each state, check out this map; to learn what to watch in each state, read the following hour-by-hour preview of key races (all times Eastern).
6 p.m.
Polls close in: most of Indiana, eastern Kentucky
As the first polls close, well start to see results in two districts that could hold clues for how the rest of the night will unfold: the Kentucky 6th and Indiana 9th. The Kentucky 6th is rated1 as Toss-Up in the Classic version of our model. If Democratic challenger Amy McGrath is able to oust GOP Rep. Andy Barr, it will be an early sign of a Democratic wave, as the Kentucky 6th is about 10.5 points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole, according to FiveThirtyEights partisan lean metric.2 On the other hand, our model rates the Indiana 9th as Likely Republican, so if Democrat Liz Watson somehow pulls off an upset against Republican Rep. Trey Hollingsworth, it may point to a very long night for Republicans. The 6 p.m. poll-closing hour will also yield early returns in the Indiana U.S. Senate race, a seat that Democrats must hold in order to have any hope of capturing the Senate. Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly currently has a 7 in 10 chance there.
7 p.m.
Polls close in: most of Florida, Georgia, the rest of Indiana, the rest of Kentucky, most towns in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
Florida and Georgia are hosting two of the most interesting gubernatorial campaigns in the country this year; both races highlight the parties ideological divisions and have the potential to make history. Georgia is a Lean Republican race, according to our model, and theres a chance that race may bleed into a December runoff if neither major-party candidate Democrat and former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams or Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp can win 50 percent of the vote. But things look a little more straightforward in Florida. Our forecast gives Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum a 3 in 4 shot to become Floridas first Democratic governor in 20 years and its first-ever black governor. Florida will also be the second state, after Indiana, to report results from a vulnerable Democrat-held U.S. Senate seat.
In the House, well see results from districts like the Florida 27th and Virginia 10th, both of which look like easy pickup opportunities for Democrats. But if Republicans hold on to these seats, that may mean they have a shot at hanging on to the House. There are also several toss-up districts at stake, like the Florida 26th and Virginia 5th. If Democrats are able to flip these, theyll be on track for a healthy House majority. And if Democrats can also pick off districts that lean Republican like the Virginia 2nd, they will be doing better than expected.
7:30 p.m.
Polls close in: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
Democrats dont have a lot of House targets here, but North Carolina and Ohio are two states where a blue tsunami could break open the Republican firewall; if that happens, look for likely-but-not-safe Republican districts like the North Carolina 2nd and Ohio 1st to fall. Former state Attorney General Richard Cordray also has a 55 percent shot of returning the Ohio governorship to the Democrats, who last held it in 2011.
snip - lots more, takes it to the end.
dalton99a
(81,570 posts)MontanaMama
(23,337 posts)Bookmarked. Thank you.
fishwax
(29,149 posts)babylonsister
(171,091 posts)least 8pm. Kind of glad about that. I will come home and catch up, and be thankful that either way it will be over. GO DEMS!!!!!
2naSalit
(86,775 posts)33taw
(2,447 posts)jcgoldie
(11,645 posts)I used this article from Nate Silver a couple of days ago where he ranks 105 house seats from the 190th most likely for democrats to win up to the 295th most likely (the house swings on seat 218)... I copied the text into a word document then printed out just the table (If you try to print the webpage you only get a piece of it because its on a scroll). Watching the returns then one should be able to keep tabs on what kind of night we're having based on how far down the table our pickups are (ie if we're picking up seats on the last couple of pages in red + districts it should be a great night).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-need-a-systematic-polling-error-to-win-the-house/
renate
(13,776 posts)Very useful!
Xipe Totec
(43,890 posts)Not that we shouldn't go the extra mile for the last 1%.
salin
(48,955 posts)There seems to be a lot of momentum - but it's still a long shot. She's a great candidate and has been all over this gerrymandered district, many times. Town meeting about x in Franklin (south of Indianapolis), she's there. Festival event in Brown County/Nashville, she's there. Candidate forums... she's there and Trey isn't. Early voting in Bloomington has been crazy big. Early voting across Indiana, as of Friday was 3 times the size as in 2014.
Many tv ads for Liz, a few for Trey. It's as if he (and his money) are so confident that this is a Red state that he doesn't have to do anything (even show up) to win. (This is the carpetbag dude from Tennessee who caught news coverage last election as he (and his rich pops) went looking for a congressional district for progeny to run in - and basically self-funded through a Pac (Sole funder = Dad) - and won.
There has been no national coverage, and little reliable polling. It's kind of cool that it has been put on the map - at least for first election returns watching. Here's to hoping that Hoosiers can give Democrats an early boost of energy in the watching the results cycle of Election Day 2018.
Now I am off - have to do some more GOTV work for that longshot Indiana 9th race!
panader0
(25,816 posts)Tom Rinaldo
(22,913 posts)NewJeffCT
(56,829 posts)I'm not very hopeful on Ned Lamont for Governor - he has a slight lead according to the latest polls. However, Stefanowski is getting huge money from outside groups and his ads are EVERYWHERE. I was on youtube last night and I had to sit through a Stefanowski ad before I could watch a video and every time I turned on the TV, there are pro Stefanowski and/or anti Lamont ads. It seems like it is almost 2 out of every 3 ads are anti Lamont or pro Stefanowski.
I see Murphy holding on to his senate seat, though I'm disappointed the last poll I saw had him up by "only" 15. He's been a tireless advocate for more gun control, which is popular here in CT.
I think Jahana Hayes will win to hold the CT-5 seat blue, and the other 4 Democratic incumbents will win as well
My prediction:
Bob Stefanowski 48%, Ned Lamont 45% and the remainder to 3rd party candidate Oz Griebel, around 7%
Senate race will be Murphy 59% and Matt Corey 40%
House races will be:
Jahana Hayes 53-47% over Manny Santos
Jim Himes 55%-44% over Harry Arora
John Larson, Rosa DeLauro and Joe Courtney will all win by at least 20%
State legislature - Democrats currently have an 80-71 margin in the House and will increase the margin by a small amount.
State senate is 18-18 and Democrats will pick up 1 or 2 seats to get full control.
(as an FYI, Dems had over 2:1 margins in both houses after the 2008 elections, so they've been trending the wrong direction for a decade)
lindysalsagal
(20,730 posts)suegeo
(2,573 posts)yardwork
(61,703 posts)NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)I'm going to be obsessively watching the returns, so this adds to my obsession. As if I needed it!