Call me crazy, but I just don't see these people getting all excited to vote for DeSantis or Scott.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article221140900.html


Millennials and Gen Z voters in Florida are amped up for election

By Alex Daugherty, Samantha Gross, Jimena Tavel, Maya Kaufman And Aisha Powell



November 05, 2018 01:46 PM

Retirees typically wield more power at the ballot box than millennials and Generation Z voters, especially in midterm elections.

But interviews with dozens of students across six college campuses in Florida show that very few are planning to sit this election out. Both Democrats and Republicans have spent months courting young voters ahead of Tuesday’s election, and many voters in their late teens or 20s have already voted after early-voting centers opened on college campuses across the state.

More than 11,000 people voted early at two Miami Dade College sites in Kendall and North Dade, the largest number of early voters at any college campus in the state. The University of Florida was second with nearly 8,000 early voters and Florida International University was only a few hundred votes behind. A polling place in Tallahassee near Florida State University and Florida A&M University, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum’s alma mater, ranked fourth among polling places at college campuses with more than 6,000 votes.

Near the FAMU quad, a table piled with Krispy Kreme doughnuts offered students a sweet bite and a voter guide.

Amber Hannah, a 21-year-old pre-medical student from Tallahassee, stood in line for a doughnut. She plans to vote on Tuesday for Democrats Gillum and U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, since her sorority is holding a rally to get students to vote.

Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article221140900.html#storylink=cpy

[rownesheck]

1. Or cruz in Texas.

[Awsi Dooger]

2. College turnout has been very disappointing in Florida

Increase but not nearly as much as hoped for, or compared to other states. There have been many other articles that have spelled it out better than that one. I have no idea why anything is compared to 2014, which was a disaster.

We are nervous here in Florida largely because the turnout so far does not match the polling indications. These Florida statewide races are going to be very tight either way:

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-college-early-voting-sites-20181030-story.html


"Voters age 18 to 29 are about 17 percent of total registered voters in Florida. But according to University of Florida political science professor Daniel Smith, with roughly half of young voters having cast a ballot so far, the age group makes up 8.2 percent of the ballots cast through Monday morning.

That’s an improvement from the 2014 midterm election, when young voters represented just 5.6 percent of all early and mail-in votes.

“You have to look at it as a glass half full and glass half empty. Relative to typical midterm turnout, young voters are getting out and voting early and by mail in historic numbers,” Smith said. “But the glass half empty is, those historic numbers are really low.”

<snip>

"The big jump in young voters appears to have little to do with one factor that could have played a major role — the end of Florida’s ban on universities as early voting sites."

<snip>

"But nine counties opted to use colleges or universities as early voting sites this year, and in almost every case, those sites were among the poorest performing, a South Florida Sun Sentinel analysis of early voting turnout numbers shows."

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Very ominous recent Steve Schale tweet regarding Florida

He is the former Obama state campaign director, and expert on Florida politics. Schale has been reporting that turnout specifics look awful in Florida. That has been obvious to any of us who live here, and know the countywide ideology and voting trends.

Schale retained some hope but this latest one sounds almost deflated. Republicans have been winning the election day numbers by upwards of 135,000 votes, and we can't logically offset that.

Let's just hope he is somehow wrong.

Link to tweet

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Not as bad as I thought

We have been covering this in the Florida forum.

Schale from last night expected a GOP election day edge of perhaps 150,000 to 200,000 votes. He preferred the lower number as more likely. Now GOP pundits are chirping that it may exceed 200,000.

http://steveschale.com/blog/2018/11/6/like-the-jaguars-season-the-election-is-nearly-over.html

If 200,000+ we'll need independents to break sharply for Gillum and Nelson, and there are indications of that, in the St. Petersburg Times poll and elsewhere. Schale refers to it in his final blog post.

Normally the party with the national tilt wins the vast majority of extremely close races. I'll hold onto that big picture reality in terms of Florida.

Regardless, we really need to raise our game in this state. These races should not be so close in a cycle with a heavy blue slant. I post all the time regarding how well organized Republicans are in this state. I see it on my suburban block all the time. GOP is finding their reluctant voters in Florida and we need to do the same.