BREAKING: First Exit Poll profile (5 PM)

[brooklynite]

Link to tweet

[RhodeIslandOne]

1. There is no in between.

[beachbum bob]

2. Depends on where exit poll is conducted

[Quixote1818]

13. This is probably a broad survey taking in red and blue areas all over the country. nt

[Stallion]

3. Ouch!

hurts so good

[manor321]

4. Try not to make too much of exit polls

I mean, yes, it is better if exit polls look favorable to us, but don't pin your hopes on them.

[Qutzupalotl]

5. Good thing Trump decided to make this about him.

In his mind, that’s a winning strategy.

[elleng]

6. Where?

[LonePirate]

7. That approval is too high for comfort. It should be below 40%.

Granted, the approval number would be a tick or two lower if early voters were counted.

[NewsCenter28]

8. Disagree strongly

It's lower than Bush in 2006 and Obama in 2010 who were both decimated by the midterms. Not sure why you think an approval rating needs to be under 40 for a Dem majority? What historical and scientific data do you use to support that claim? Traditionally, a vulnerable incumbent matches the president's approval rating at best in house races where the national environment is catastrophic for the ruling party, like this.

[blitzen]

9. Plus they didn't allow a lukewarm "neither" option n/t

[LonePirate]

11. I never made or implied anything about a Dem (House?) majority in my comment.

However, an approval below 40 greatly increases our chances in the Senate. 44% is way too high for us to feel confident about the Senate.

[NewsCenter28]

14. Ok I concede that

However, 44% tends to mean the senate is more in play than we may have expected, IMO. Sorry, I thought you meant the house too.

[Quixote1818]

17. People voting is completely different from day to day approval numbers

In the entire country his approval is probably only about 40% but not all those people vote. But notice the disapproval number is also higher than what we have been seeing day to day which balances it out. With this being a cross section of who is actually voting, the GOP is in big trouble. They have a 11 point deficit.

[NewsCenter28]

12. Again, these results indicate a house bloodbath

And the senate is strongly in play with a 44% approval. What's not to like?

[Adrahil]

15. MSNBC showing some numbers how too...

Similar top line numbers, though they have some state specific stuff too.

[wisteria]

16. Oh, exit polls. I pay no attention since they had Secretary Kerry winning in 2004.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. It is closer to the RCP number of 43.6% than 538 at 41.8%

That is unfortunate but to be expected. Nate Silver has cautioned many times that likely voters approve of Trump in higher percentage than registered voters or Americans in general.

Donald Trump had only 38% favorable opinion in the 2016 presidential exit poll compared to 60% unfavorable. That is the nation we are dealing with. A guy can act like this and jump 6 points in approval over two years.