Nate 538 House Update - Chance Dems take the House now at 72.7% (8:15 pm EST)

[USALiberal]

Last edited Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:14 PM - Edit history (4)

Up to date coverage......

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

[Awsi Dooger]

1. It was above 87% an hour or two ago

We need something to break positive

[obamanut2012]

2. You are all over these threads with your doom and gloom

Esp with hardly any polls closed yet.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. I'm not all over anything

It should be a good night but when adjusters start posting things like Puerto Ricans are going to be worth 4-6% for Gillum it is difficult to restrain laughter, let alone mockery.

Independents should carry the day for us. But the enthusiasm edge was always overstated.

BTW, we are back up to 84.6% on 538.

Maintaining the House is the health care variable so I'm not apologizing for being nervous about that

[unblock]

4. i wouldn't read much into it. there are different models. classic, lite, and deluxe.

then on election day, he surely has a different model that incorporates results as the come in.

so no matter what you're comparing apples to oranges.

[USALiberal]

5. 7:00 Update Kick nt

[USALiberal]

7. 7:30 Kick

[USALiberal]

10. 7:45 Update

[USALiberal]

11. 8:00 Update

[USALiberal]

12. 8:15 update

[Awsi Dooger]

6. 87% and 83% are not the same thing

I make no apologies toward people who don't understand that. I have dealt with sports math since 1984 and political math since 1992. The margin for error plummets dramatically based on certain ranges and shifts.

Too many people look at anything comfortably above 50% and wonder what could possibly go wrong?

[Awsi Dooger]

8. 538 now above 90% for the first time

93.9% as I type this

Now that's what I'm talking about. Imagine if the 8% shift had gone the other way.

[USALiberal]

9. Updated!! Thanks!!!!!!! nt