Why Trump was the biggest loser Tuesday night...
The three states that delivered Trump the presidency, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, all trended back to the Democrats in a strong way. Iowa, which Trump won, as well, trended back, too, but it was more mixed. Where Trump is going to struggle is finding a path to 270 without those three states now that Virginia has also trended ever further Democratic.
If Trump wins every state he won in 2016, but can't carry those Big Three, he loses the presidency - and that's giving him Florida and Ohio along with one of Maine's congressional districts.
This is a big development that seems to being downplayed. Trump can gloat about winning in Indiana and Missouri and Tennessee but those states don't matter to his reelection chances because they were already states he had in the bag. The only way this would've been worse for Trump is if Florida had gone Democratic. Alas, right now, that's the only thing he can hang his hat on and, if things hold, it won't be enough to deliver him the White House in 2020.
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