Best summary I've seen of problem in Florida

[Awsi Dooger]

From this article today: https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/11/07/soul-crushing-trump-wave-bewilders-florida-democrats-685606

"The two men couldn’t have been more different, leading Democratic pollster Fernand Amandi to wonder if the problem is one of organization and tactics.

“Florida Democrats continue making the same strategic mistakes, cycle after cycle and then crying when they again come up 1 point short. We can’t continue to operate like the general election campaign begins the night after the primary,” Amandi said. “Rather than starting two months out, the party needs to get serious about investing resources in research and outreach two years out if they ever hope to slay the Republican colossus and flip Florida blue.”

***

Exactly. I've mentioned it in countless posts here. Early emphasis dominates and late scrambling inevitably is not going to return full benefit. I appreciate all the members here who report tireless work on Florida canvassing and GOTV but you might as well multiply that by .8 in terms of actual return. Minds are made up early. Late shifts work in primaries because likeminded people can shift on a dime. That accounts for huge rallies like Lamont over Lieberman, and Gillum from nowhere to defeat Gwen Graham. But in rigid general elections the stacks of liberals and conservatives are right there, repelling any significant movement. That voter needs to understand months if not a year ahead of time that he prefers the Democratic agenda and will vote for the Democratic nominee.

I am convinced that Republicans won these Florida races in 2017, not 2018. I mentioned that in a prior thread. Last spring and into summer 2017 I was astonished at the onslaught of Republican canvassers in my suburban neighborhood, one afternoon after another week after week. It went on for 2 months. Red clad canvassers at the T (street and avenue) in front of my house, discussing strategy before setting off. Their technical excuse was a couple of local races, leading to the primaries. This is the race, which eventually turned out in our favor: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article163625838.html

But instead of pushing for Diaz only, these GOP creeps would stick Republican literature in my mailbox and attached to my door knob, time and again. I am a registered Democrat but they didn't care. I would tell them I would never vote for a Republican in my life and they didn't care. One guy smiled and said, "Okay." A couple of weeks later he tried again, this time with a different colleague. I chased that colleague off my lawn with the same sentence. He waved his arms defensively and said, "Okay, sir. Okay."

But imagine when that group encountered someone who would listen. Someone who is either a lazy Republican or right leaning person who is not registered. The gain is steady. Vote here and vote there. Tactically it was not identical to what I experienced in Clark County, NV, other than one side completely dominant in terms of obvious presence and well before the fact. Obviously in Nevada our side had that edge.

Consequently in Florida I may be numbed by last night's outcomes but I have no trouble explaining it. During 2017 I was envisioning the same GOP emphasis edge in one neighborhood and rural area throughout the state. Contrast to my experience. I returned to this state in late 2008 and registered Democratic. Throughout that decade only Donna Shalala this time in FL-27 has contacted me repeatedly, and similar to what I experienced in Nevada. Shalala's campaign during the primary and general election featured daily emails, near daily texts, and many phone calls. It was all time hilarity when she was described to have run a poor campaign. I never heard from Gillum or Nelson. I was never contacted by any of Shalala's opponents before that primary. She was on the ball while others slept. I guess she didn't get the memo that in Florida you are supposed to wait until the final weeks.

I'm still on tilt. It still feels like a loss, no matter what happened elsewhere. I'm just throwing this out there. I am relieved that a higher up in the state party understands the problem.

[leftstreet]

1. The GOP has organized a movement. The Democrats haven't

I experience the same here in the Pacific NW. Massive GOP mailers, signs, door knocks - nothing from the Democrats or candidates until right before an election.

The 'movement' the GOPers have been organizing for decades is vile and reprehensible White Nationalism. But it's a movement all the same.

Unfortunately the Democrats have been ignoring movements like Medicare For All, Minimum Wage, etc at their peril and instead seem to consider GOTV a movement. It's not

[stuffmatters]

2. Really,really useful observations,suggestions on a lot of levels for our Party going forward.

[brer cat]

3. Some good points.

Stacey Abrams started working on new voter registration and her name recognition years before starting her campaign. Win or lose, she gave them a run they haven't seen in a long time.

[superpatriotman]

4. Don't discount AM radio influence

Along with mega churches and rw online media

Every rw'er I come across has the same talking points. Exactly the same.

They're not pulling it out of their asses ( though the talking points were pulled out of someone's ass)