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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsMother Jones: Tonight Was One of the Great Political Blowouts of Modern History
Kevin Drum November 6, 2018 11:49 PM
Unemployment is at 3.7 percent, a level so low weve reached it only once before in my entire lifetime. GDP is growing 3 percent per year. Wages are rising nicely. Inflation is tooling along at a very modest 2 percent. Manufacturers shipments are healthy. Consumer spending is strong and household debt is low. Aside from the dotcom boom, consumer confidence is at a 40-year high.
And yet, Republicans are going to lose three dozen seats in the House and cede control to the Democrats. Has any party ever done so badly in the middle of such strong economic performance?
I guess there was LBJ in 1966, after passing the Civil Rights Act and losing the South forever. But thats about it.
In raw numbers this might not be the biggest wave election ever, but once you account for the economy its one of the great political blowouts of modern history. Donald Trump will never admit it, but dont be fooled. He was crushed and repudiated tonight in a way that few presidents ever have been.
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/11/tonight-was-one-of-the-great-political-blowouts-of-modern-history/?fbclid=IwAR1ZUPEt8KKLzBapy9f5eqgXw2BA68Uz4adeppS8u_oc5MhWWJmofko6sQU&utm_source=mj-newsletters&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=political-mojo-2018-11-09
THIS is how it needs to be promoted!
NewJeffCT
(56,829 posts)Last edited Fri Nov 9, 2018, 01:04 PM - Edit history (1)
in states like NC, Ohio, Michigan, Texas, and elsewhere, I'm guessing Democrats pick up closer to 50 seats. Look at the change in just Pennsylvania with fairly drawn districts. Prior to Conor Lamb flipping his district, it was 13-5 Republicans in PA. Now, I think it is 9-9
BumRushDaShow
(129,441 posts)And here in PA, Democratic voter registration outnumbers Republican by about 800,000, yet when 2018 began, the congressional contingent was actually 13 (R) - 5 (D). Conor was able to win a special election this past March that shifted it to 12 (R) - 6 (D)... And now with the redistricting, we were able to pick up 3 more (D) seats so we are closer to what we should be here - 9 (D) - 9 (R). The 3 seats that we picked up are all suburban women and they will be the first female members of congress from PA since Alyson Schwartz resigned her seat to run for governor back in 2014.
And what is even more significant is that there will now be ~100 WOMEN (new and returning) in the U.S. House.
As Joe Biden would say - "It's a big f****ng deal"
iluvtennis
(19,871 posts)Pacifist Patriot
(24,654 posts)Without gerrymandering AND voter suppression, I do think Dems would have gained 50 seats minimum. I saw one estimate the Senate could have gone Dem by a seat. And we would have 1, maybe 2 more Dem governors.
On my phone and can't find the story, but it gave a pretty compelling argument that those two problems significantly helped tamp down what would have been a glaring in your face smack down of the GOP in a strong economy.
Cha
(297,655 posts)silly who couldn't see a blue wave coming. And, said there was no blue wave on election night. Looking at you Carville and Tapper.
Thanks for this Reality Base Report, BRDS.
But maybe we haven't "lost the South forever"?
Oh yeah trump went to Montana 4 times on a personal vendetta against Senator Jon Tester('cause he exposed Dr Ronny).. and Donny jr went all over the state with his girlfriend calling Tester ugly names.
Nothing worked! Montana sent him back to D.C. for another 6 years. Hopefully JT will be there longer that the Fraud.
Damn Straight. And, if the m$m isn't recognizing that.. they're covering for Fascism.
Thanks, BRDS!
The south can be ours. But it will need a lot of work to get rid of the gerrymandering and voter suppression. The votes ARE there.
And I know he won't say a word about Montana & Tester and also because a judge there just blocked the Keystone Pipeline - https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142197864
Cha
(297,655 posts)was in Montana!
BumRushDaShow
(129,441 posts)after Reid invoked the "nuclear option".
(of course Turtle used it again to ram through Kavanaugh but at least we have a Circuit court firewall that has generally been working well so far)
Cha
(297,655 posts)Hermit-The-Prog
(33,414 posts)I wanted to be the first to say, "Thanks Obama!" for that glowing economy report in the article. That's what I get for that stupid sleeping habit thing.
If we hadn't produced a tsunami, Repugs' cheats would have kept them in control of the House and lots and lots of state offices. It's about time reports like this motherjones article are acknowledging how big Tuesday was.
Cha
(297,655 posts)BLUE TSUNAMI Changed Everything!
I have to go do that sleeping habit thing soon now.
Hermit-The-Prog
(33,414 posts)That blue tsunami means we CAN stop that insane march into fascism.
And that means we can all get some sleep now and then.
BumRushDaShow
(129,441 posts)lambasting what he called the "pundits" (although obviously he is one too... ) and even showing clips from CNN and Faux of people dismissing what happened election day.
Here is a tweet with the segment -
Link to tweet
TEXT
TheBeat w/Ari Melber
✔
@TheBeatWithAri
"Americans have not been going back-and-forth when deciding which party should win the White House"
"Voters preferred a Democrat for President in 6 of the last 7 Presidential races" - @AriMelber
63
11:03 AM - Nov 9, 2018
Hermit-The-Prog
(33,414 posts)There was a wonderful surfboard on that tsunami:
71 Percent of Trump-Endorsed Candidates Lost Their Elections
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211396280
Don't know who Ally Maynard is, but sure glad that tabulation was done!
BumRushDaShow
(129,441 posts)for another poster!! I knew I had seen it but couldn't find the thread again.
Hermit-The-Prog
(33,414 posts)That thread made me actually laugh out loud when I saw it. It's nuts to be that happy to see someone else miserable, but that's what TrumPutin has done to me.
BumRushDaShow
(129,441 posts)nini
(16,672 posts)I have PTSD from previous election mischief going back to 2000.
I still don't fully trust our elections
I hoped and knew it was possible. I just could trust it wouldn't be tampered with.
underpants
(182,877 posts)ut in the sleepiest branch of government the judiciary Texas Democrats cleaned up on Election Day, flipping the four influential state appeals courts that serve Austin, Houston and Dallas. Democrats now hold majorities on seven of the states 14 appeals courts. Before Tuesday, they held seats on just three.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.texastribune.org/2018/11/08/texas-courts-appeals-2018-midterms-beto-orourke/amp/
BumRushDaShow
(129,441 posts)This is how we have to do it - up and down the ballot. From the "lowly school board" to the city councils and mayors to the county commissioners, judges from the municipal levels through to the state Supreme Courts, and everything within the legislative and state executive branches.
THIS is "taking America back".
underpants
(182,877 posts)Democrats flipped seven governorships, six state legislative chambers, and more than 300 state House and Senate seats on election night. The party went a long way to regaining control at the state level after suffering devastating losses throughout the Barack Obama years.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/policy-and-politics/2018/11/9/18075536/midterm-elections-2018-results-governors-state-legislatures-agenda
The new trifecta count stands at 14 Democratic, 22 Republican, 13 divided, and Georgia left to be decided based on the governor's race.
Entering the 2018 midterm election, Republicans had a +14 state trifecta lead: of 34 states with trifectas, 26 were Republican and eight were Democratic. But after the votes were counted, Democrats increased their trifecta total with a net gain of six, and Republicans declined to 22 trifectas (a net loss of four so far). States with divided government (i.e., no trifecta for either major party) declined to 13.
https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2018
BumRushDaShow
(129,441 posts)were broken. That means a state with a Democratic Governor has less of a chance of getting a veto override of the egregious GOP legislation!
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Naw fuck him!!!
My hope is that insane Dump and his cult absolutely destroy the GOP and bury it forever!!!
The first step on that road was our blue wave midterms!
LeftInTX
(25,551 posts)Didn't even think about how the rest of the circuits did.
I live in the 4th - we flipped two and held three.
(No Republicans won. There are justices that were not up for reelection)
The Fourth is now: 6 Democrats
1 Republican
Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)ffr
(22,671 posts)that's propping up the economy and our children and their children will be the ones to pay for today's brilliantly strong economy.
Horse manure! It's all a facade.
BumRushDaShow
(129,441 posts)I.e., the GOP "narrative" always focuses on the stats that the MJ article listed, but it made no difference in the outcome as people saw through it and know the FACTS behind it and what that means (and many are sadly going to be in for a rude awakening come April 2019).
The pundit view has always been "it's the economy stupid" so in this case, they dismissed or tempered (and continue to temper) expectations for a Democratic "wave" and got burnt... mainly because -
1.) The economy belongs to Obama
2.) The trade war is gonna hurt and people can't be bribed out of it forever
3.) Global warming is going to hurt even more (more powerful storms/floods/drought/wildfires) which impacts people and business
dalton99a
(81,570 posts)BadgerMom
(2,771 posts)Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)Way to go, everyone who turned out to vote!!!! (including ME!)
BumRushDaShow
(129,441 posts)And will post this here -
Since the brags about his endorsements "winning" are bunk.
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)oasis
(49,407 posts)That works for me.
BumRushDaShow
(129,441 posts)the M$M is slowly being shamed into admitting their bias about exactly what happened Tuesday. It was quite a difference between that and their breathless coverage of the fake astroturf teabaggers in 2010.
But what is notable is that since the GOP refuses to admit any defeat, you never get the soundbites that the media likes to use like Obama's term for 2010 as being "shellacked".
What I saw this week with this article and what Ari did Wednesday, was how to wrest control of and reset a narrative because our narrative was hijacked by the likes of Carville (and I recall the hand-wringing threads here on DU when people heard his remark) and many others. Interesting that I can't seem to find any later remarks from Carville admitting his error.
A NYT TV critic did an analysis of the TV analyses here - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/07/arts/television/midterm-elections-fox-news-cnn-msnbc.html
oasis
(49,407 posts)on election night "bittersweet". It took me a day or so to process everything before I could fully rejoice.
BumRushDaShow
(129,441 posts)many focussed on the "marquis" races and essentially dismissed the "bread and butter" races that might not have the media's definition of "star" power, but have some real power nonetheless.
This literally was an up and down the ballot effort AND many of the newly-elected folks are in an office for the very first time, so they will be building their "street cred" when it comes time for re-election or for moving to other/higher offices.
I just posted this in another thread about what happened here in PA regarding breaking a super-majority, which is significant -
I had finally found the data of what actually happened with our legislative state-wide races. Given that we re-elected our (D) governor by double digits for another 4-year term, which would overlap with the 2020 census, and given that we are clawing back our seats in the state Assembly, we will hopefully be in much better shape than we were in 2010, when we were slimed by the astroturf teabaggers, which inturn brought about extreme state-wide and federal gerrymandering, and efforts to implement the RW ALEC agenda here, including this infamous utterance in 2012 by the state House's leader -