Rough ranking of the Top 31 potential Democratic 2020 Candidates

[Renew Deal]

I took a list adapted from Wikipedia and gave them a rough ranking based on their likelihood to win the nomination. It's a pain to rank 31 and probably meaningless beyond the top 10. Who is in your top 10 of likely to win? This is not who you prefer, just who you think can win.

1 Joe Biden
2 Bernie Sanders
3 Beto O'Rourke
4 Elizabeth Warren
5 John Hickenlooper
6 Sherrod Brown
7 Kirsten Gillibrand
8 Kamala Harris
9 Hillary Clinton
10 Eric Holder
11 Terry McAuliffe
12 Michael Bloomberg
13 Jay Inslee
14 Cory Booker
15 Jeff Merkley
16 Andrew Cuomo
17 Bob Casey Jr.
18 Michael Bennet
19 Deval Patrick
20 Amy Klobuchar
21 Eric Swalwell
22 Julian Castro
23 Tom Steyer
24 John Delaney
25 John Kerry
26 Martin O'Malley
27 Tulsi Gabbard
28 Eric Garcetti
29 Tim Ryan
30 Richard Ojeda
31 Michael Avenatti

I'm happy to debate the likelihood of anyone. I think I might be too generous to Biden, Sanders, and Warren, but I think the list is fair.


Honorable mentions not on this list: Tester, Mitch Landrieu, Steve Bullock, Chris Murphy, Gavin Newsome

[jcgoldie]

1. Ok maybe I missed it...

Is there some reason to think John Kerry has an interest in running again?

[Renew Deal]

2. He didn't rule it out in an interview

https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2018/09/06/john-kerry-2020

[karynnj]

107. He had said on Morning Joe that he was NOT doing anything to run in 2020

and MJ later stated he "did not rule it out". In many interview, he then simply diverted to speaking of 2018 -- because otherwise the conversation stayed with him running. I think there are strong clues that he is NOT running. Type hillaryclinton.com or Joebiden.com and you are sent to their web sites. Type Johnkerry.com and you get a message that there is no website. In 2005 he kept it and in 2006, he expanded the site and even had volunteers moderate it and had a blog. He also has spoken of looking at people running - suggesting he could endorse someone as he did in 2008.

I suspect that now that 2018 is past, he might still make ambiguous comments - as our media is very likely to give him more coverage on his book tour if he does.

That said, IF he started to actively wrong, he could be more popular than many on the list. In fact, while not running, in the poll where he was one of the names, he got 5% beating out many higher on this list. http://pollingreport.com/2020.htm The Ken Burns Vietnam series helps him on Vietnam and he was essential to getting the Paris Accord - and climate change is now a bigger issue. Compared to Clinton, he has very little negative baggage.

[Small-Axe]

3. Who could win?

1 Joe Biden

2 Cory Booker
3 Kamala Harris

****************
4 Amy Klobuchar
5 Beto O'Rourke

Three viable candidates. Two long-shot VPs.

[Renew Deal]

5. I think Booker and Harris will have difficulty connecting for opposite reasons.

Booker is hyper and I'm not sure it will play well.
Harris is boring.

I love Amy Klobuchar, but I don't think she will run and I don't think she has a killer instinct. She would be great as VP.

[Garrett78]

9. Have you heard Harris speak? It's hard to believe one would consider her boring.

[Renew Deal]

11. There is a difference between committee hearings and campaign speeches.

She's tough in committee hearings. But I feel like there isn't a lot of heart in her speeches. Still, I have her at 8 which is pretty good. She could be 4. I'm just not that high on her abilities to run for president right now.

[Garrett78]

36. What you see in committee hearings is what you'd see on stage with Trump.

Last edited Tue Nov 27, 2018, 12:43 AM - Edit history (1)

And here's Kamala's speech at the Families Belong Together rally earlier this year: https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Kamala-Harris-Speaks-at-LA-Immigration-Rally_Los-Angeles-487031491.html.

The ranking in the OP seems based on name recognition more than anything else. Sanders has no chance at winning the nomination.

By the way, I've never thought of Booker as hyper. We seem to have almost opposite impressions of Booker and Harris.

[Small-Axe]

12. It will be Biden with Booker or Harris as VP IMO.

Biden is our best nominee to win the EC.

He'd do well with an energetic Booker at his side in my estimation.

My dream ticket for 2020.

[Renew Deal]

15. Definitely possible

I have Biden at 1, but there are things playing against him. Biden connects easily, has passion and experience, but he makes unforced errors. I also wonder if age will work against him. I wonder if someone that brings inspiration like Beto or Booker could surpass him.

[Small-Axe]

25. His age not an issue in the general vs Trump.

All Biden's great positives make Trump look especially bad in comparison.

Biden's few negatives are erased by Trump's far worse negatives.

Trump could not bully Biden. He'll get his ass whomped.

Biden is the perfect foil to Trump. And our best candidate to take the win in the Electoral College by far.

[Renew Deal]

31. He's also the candidate that Trump fears the most

according to reporting...

[Garrett78]

37. Biden would shatter Trump's record for oldest person to take office.

And then there's his history with the Thomas-Hill hearing, as well as his penchant for gaffes. Biden's time has come and gone. Democrats win when persons of color and women turn out in big numbers.

[Small-Axe]

44. Like I said, age isn't a negative factor in Biden vs Trump.

Thomas-Hill wasn't Joe Biden's greatest moment but pales into a non-issue vs pussy grabbing, et al.

Bidens's warmth and decency would make Trump look especially bad, and Joe can handle Trump's childishness in a way no one else can.

Biden would win all the Blue States and clean up in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, likely win Florida and Ohio, and Arizona. He is our best shot by a wide margin in the Electoral College contest.

[Garrett78]

48. He's quite a bit older than Trump, and his Thomas-Hill past wouldn't be a non-issue.

That past would be used to equivocate, obfuscate and suppress.

I'm confident our nominee will win PA, MI and WI. That's all we need to take the White House. A lot of factors were at play in 2016 (Comey, a relentless anti-Clinton media, etc.). PA, MI and WI will be back in our column. I think we have other candidates who are more likely than Biden to win in Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and other battleground states.

[Fatemah2774]

78. Biden could do the Polk

Say hey, I'm only going to do one term...and then the VP of Booker or Harris or even Beto could carry the banner. This puts the age issue as moot, and sets us up as becoming more diverse, younger, and oh that's right, sane.

[elfin]

50. Amy would also be great on the Supreme Court

I think she is fantastic.

Would love a Biden/Klobuchar ticket and then nominate her for the Court. Then bring up another strong person as VP choice.

[Chipper Chat]

4. 32. Gavin newsome

33. Oprah Winfrey.
34. Adam Schiff
35. Michelle Obama
36. Ben Affleck

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

26. Oprah and Affleck shouldn't be on the list at all.

They are not possibilities in any known universe. And Michelle Obama has made it very clear that she's not interested in ever running for office. Adam Schiff should be much higher on the list than any celebrity.

[crazycatlady]

77. Ben Affleck?

Are you kidding me? PLEASE no more celebrity candidates (including Oprah).

But from what I've heard of Ben Affleck, he's an asshole (I've heard he's a notoriously cheap tipper and the way someone treats waitstaff speaks volumes to their character). Plus having an affair with the nanny while married isn't exactly good showing.

[Chipper Chat]

82. Worked for donald trump

[crazycatlady]

83. Just no

No more celebrities. Especially jackass ones.

[smirkymonkey]

85. Plus he has major alcohol and gambling addiction problems that he still hasn't

quite conquered. He's just a big all-around NO.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Amy Klobuchar is trading 4th on Predictit

Buy Yes is 12 cents and ahead of Warren, for example.

That's the one that jumped out as way off from your list. If Klobuchar decides to run she is top tier immediately.

https://www.predictit.org/legacy/Market/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination

[Renew Deal]

8. Is she likely to run?

[Awsi Dooger]

103. Same site says 66% yes

https://www.predictit.org/legacy/Contract/5625/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-run-for-president-in-2020#data

I don't know how accurate that is, but it is wisdom of the wagering crowd at a given point in time

[jcgoldie]

14. impressive but...

...a few spots later is Dwayne "the rock" Johnson...

[Awsi Dooger]

104. Trading at 12 cents or 2 cents is not exactly similar

People are willing to buy at 2 cents in one market after another, since you only have to hit one in 50 to break even

[Garrett78]

17. I'm afraid Klobuchar is too meek.

Whereas Harris won't hold back from tearing Trump a new one. The same goes for Biden, but I don't think an old white male with a history of gaffes is what we need in 2020. Not to mention his history with the Thomas-Hill hearings (that won't go over well in the Me Too era).

[jcgoldie]

20. I don't think meek is the right word at all for her

She's very genuine but perhaps not shiny enough for the battle of the ages with trumpanzee the reality tv star...

[Garrett78]

40. Meek and genuine aren't opposites. I agree she's genuine.

[Awsi Dooger]

105. I think Kamala Harris has a nasty side that will work against her

That is my instincts, this far removed.

IMO, it would be a horrible mistake to think you have to respond to everything from Trump and trade daggers with him. I am worried about that from Harris in particular.

It is the reason I prefer Beto and Klobuchar. I think they would have the proper instincts to talk about Democratic goals and key issues like climate change, above Trump instead of gutter digging alongside him.

[marylandblue]

7. Hickenlooper too high, Booker too low

I like Hickenlooper a lot, but I think he doesn't have the charisma needed. Booker too low because he does have charisma.

[Renew Deal]

10. I think it's counter intuitive with both of them

I think people might see Booker as hyper and over the top. Hickenlooper is a governor and is good in the media.

[Persondem]

13. 1, 2, & 3 make little sense to me. Bernie and Joe are great but their time has passed ...

... Beto's time is not yet here; he's too rough. Gillibrand shouldn't even be on the list imo after she led the pitchforks and torches mob that took out Franken.

My #1 guy is Jay Inslee ... https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211462374

Avenatti, really? must be a low bar or do attention hounds rate highly in Dem politics these days?

My 2 cents, ymmv.

[Renew Deal]

18. Avenatti hasn't "ruled it out"

He's hinted at running, but last on the list isn't expecting much.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

28. Snowball's chance in Hell.

[StevieM]

33. I had liked Jay Inslee originally but now I am super excited about Tom Steyer.

To be fair, there will be a lot of great candidates.

[TeamPooka]

42. another rich guy with no government experience who bought his name recognition and

thinks he knows better than everyone else what to do.
I'll pass.

[ProudLib72]

56. Now hold on there

While I totally agree with you, name recognition is key. He has it. He has money to throw at the primaries. And he is headstrong like you say. So he just might be a contender.

[TeamPooka]

58. He put his name in all those Impeach Trump ads he bought to build his name rec

This was why he did it. So he could run in 2020.
he is using the media to make himself a candidate with no governing experience just like....hmmm, there's another really rich guy who ran for President recently as an outsider....

Our response to trump in 2020 should not be another rich outsider with no experience.

[ProudLib72]

60. I completely agree that he should not be a consideration

But you and I are informed voters, very much unlike a lot of other voters in this country. The best thing he could do with his money is use it to support a candidate with real potential in the general.

[Wintryjade]

16. I would have to seen the numbers to even kinda take this as informative. A simple list doesn't do it

[Renew Deal]

21. There aren't any numbers

This is gut feeling and a fun way to kill time.

[Wintryjade]

27. Ok. So you cam up with the list. I am sorry I didn't understand. That makes a difference. Thanks.

[Garrett78]

19. That list seems to be based on name recognition more so than odds of winning the nomination.

The reality is that Sanders has no chance.

[Renew Deal]

22. It for the most part is

This list will look much different in a year. Some people will not run, others will poll better. I'm not convinced that Biden will lead in the polls a year from now.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

63. Certainly not if Bernie decides to run.

[JonLP24]

24. I would say better than most

His odds are probably better to win 2020 than his odds were in 2016. Harris, Biden, Sanders probably have the best odds at this point.

[Garrett78]

45. See post #176. Sanders had a lot going for him in 2016, and that race was over by Super Tuesday.

2020 won't be a 1-on-1 race against a polarizing figure, there will be fewer caucuses, there will be very progressive candidates who appeal to women and persons of color, etc. And Sanders, like Biden, will be older than Reagan was when Reagan *left* office.

We win when we turn out persons of color and women in large numbers.

[JonLP24]

47. He had a lot less name recognition

The more people knew him the more popular he was. They were saying he had no chance last time but they were expecting him to get like 1% of the vote.

Sanders' Favorable Ratings, by Group
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
National adults 53 38 9
Republicans 26 69 5
Independents 54 35 12
Democrats 78 14 7
Whites 49 46 5
Nonwhites 64 21 15
18 to 34 59 33 8
35 to 54 58 32 10
55 and older 45 47 8

https://news.gallup.com/poll/243539/americans-maintain-positive-view-bernie-sanders.aspx

There is a greater chance of the progressive vote being split depending on who is running.

[Garrett78]

51. He built up quite a bit of name recognition by the time Iowa voted.

Favorability aside, the base doesn't want to take any chances with Sanders. There are quotes about socialism and rape fantasies that would bring him down in a general election campaign. And Sanders continues to prove that he doesn't really grasp oppression theory and the relationship between race and economics. We all knew the 2016 Democratic Primary was over by mid-March, because it was clear Sanders didn't have nearly enough support among persons of color and women. White millennials aren't going to determine who our nominee is.

[JonLP24]

53. His support is higher among non whites than whites

Did you see the polling and trends from March 2015 to September 2018?

64% non whites
49% whites

[Garrett78]

57. Again, it's not about being liked. It's about being viable.

Among persons of color, Sanders got crushed in the 2016 primary. He has views that many support. They are Democratic views. Universal health care has been part of the Democratic Party platform for as long as Sanders has been alive. But Sanders is not considered viable, and he misunderstands the relationship between social justice and economic justice.

[JonLP24]

61. He has a great record on civil rights

He recently called the criminal justice system racist. He supports economic and social justice.

I agree Sanders policies are consistent with traditional Democratic platform. Ever since the third way the Democratic party has been drifting away from those policies while Bernie has remained consistent.

[Garrett78]

67. Sanders contributed to the absurd and racist "white working class/economic anxiety" narrative...

...that followed the 2016 election. Sanders suggested that most Trump supporters aren't racists. Sanders recently stated that it isn't necessarily racist to "not be comfortable" voting for a person of color--then what the hell is it if not racist? He keeps sticking his foot in his mouth.

And I've written before about what I mean when I say he misunderstands the relationship between social justice and economic justice. See here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=11442020. Hint: it's not about support or lack of support for social justice.

[JonLP24]

68. Obama never said those who didn't vote me are racist

Sanders was making a larger point about how Desantis racist campaign cost Gillum his election. Of course people focus on that but ignore everything else he says daily against racism.

I didn't read much of your link. I got to sexism and I want to note his record on woman's rights.

https://votesmart.org/candidate/key-votes/27110/bernie-sanders/68/women#.W_zX2s1lD3A

[JHan]

79. ++

[JonLP24]

23. I think Harris has a better shot than Brown, Gillibrand, Beto

Maybe Warren. Especially Hickenlooper.

She could be the favorite even though she may not be my first choice she is definitely a second or third for me.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

64. Except for Warren, I agree.

[UTUSN]

29. What a great bunch of humans. Why put some as "Honorable mentions"?!1

That said, I'd bring this list down to:

Garcetti, Landrieu, Newsome, O'Malley, McAuliffe, Klobluchar, Holder, Harris, Brown, O'Rourke.

[Renew Deal]

32. The honorable mentions were not on the Wikipedia "expressed interest" list

other than Cuomo. Observing Cuomo, I think he's running.

[UTUSN]

35. Ugh for Andrew!1 I'd rather Chris.

[Me.]

52. Agreed

As my Governor he let the IDC (Independent Democratic Caucus, most of whom were finally voted out this year) rule the roost to the detriment of the citizens because it suited his purposes. Big ick factor, same for Bloomberg who is as autocratic as Comrade Trump and not above cheating to get what he wants, like a 3rd term as Mayor of NYC.

[Horizens]

30. My List

Brow/Klobucher or
Klobucher/Brown

[StevieM]

34. Tom Steyer all the way. (eom)

[world wide wally]

38. Brown/Beto

[Lisa0825]

39. Bookmarked for future reference.

[TeamPooka]

41. hahahaha I love a good joke post.

[violetpastille]

43. I would follow Stacey Abrams into battle.

I've seen her in a few different modalities and I think she's brilliant at all of them.

She has the human touch. She's infectiously likeable, and a great "explainer of things' without talking down.

But she also has ..gravitas. Her non-concession speech gave me chills.

[Garrett78]

46. She's very impressive. I hope she either runs for federal office or challenges Kemp again.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

95. Me too... Stacey's another one who has the "it" factor.

[John Fante]

102. She has no legislative experience at the federal level though.

Ditto Gillum. They're future stars, no question about it, but they're too green for 2020.

[OilemFirchen]

49. Here are my favorite flavors:

1) Vanilla
2) Vanilla Cream
3) Fresh Vanilla
4) Vanilla Spice
5) Plain Vanilla
6) Pure Vanilla
7) Sour Vanilla
8) Curry

[smirkymonkey]

88. Not bad, but I think Pure Vanilla should be ahead of Vanilla Spice and

Plain Vanilla should not even be on that list at all. Curry has a lot of charisma, but is a longshot.

[lpbk2713]

54. Gillum should be on that list.

Maybe he wouldn't make it to the nomination but he's worthy of being considered.

[chillfactor]

55. I personally support Beto......

with Julian Castro a close second!

[BlueStater]

59. Biden and Sanders should not be that high.

The future of the Democratic Party does not lie at the feet of two nearly 80-year-old men.

[Freddie]

71. Agreed

Please somebody younger than 65. Our opposition will be 74.
Intrigued by speculation about my Senator, Bob Casey. I think he has the kind of reasonable - moderate - likeable factor that could go far. He’s very popular in this purple state and just won re-election in a landslide. He also brings nothing that the GOP Slime Machine can use. I hate to use that as a factor but let’s get real. The Slime Machine will go into overdrive with Bernie or Elizabeth or even Biden with the accusations that he has been “handsy” at times. (Never mind Dolt 45’s history there, as we all know the Repugs have no concept of hypocrisy.)

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

62. Surprised to see Michael Avenatti ranked dead last... he'll definitely move up quickly once his

political positions become more well known.

[Renew Deal]

74. There is no scenario where he wins a state in the primary

I doubt he even wins a delegate.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

92. If I was a gambler, I'd be tempted to bet you on that.

[Renew Deal]

97. How well do you think he will do?

I think he will struggle with professional staff and being taken seriously by voters.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

99. Just basin my opinion on the way Avenatti throws punches...the Dotard would get a verbal ass-whoopin

Look at the Herculean effort he made to take KKKavenaugh down. Not sayin Avenatti would necessarily come anywhere close to winning the nomination... but he could catch fire... certainly could win somewhere.

[SoCalDem]

65. Beto-Amy

is my pick of the litter

[Awsi Dooger]

106. Same here

Exact order

That would be an ideal combination, IMO, given the situational terrain of 2020 and while facing a blowhard incumbent.

The sheer class and likability of our two nominees would captivate the electorate, or at least the non-deplorables.

[Stinky The Clown]

66. Sanders is not a Democrat.

[Bleacher Creature]

70. +1

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

100. Thanks for the reminder... I had forgotten.

[UniteFightBack]

69. Biden/Beto or Biden/Booker..is who I think has the best chance at this moment. It's a popularity

contest.

[flotsam]

72. This may sound superficial

but I think we need 2 types-an older hand like Biden or Kerry or Warren-w/perhaps a pledge to one term tied to a younger star with high likability. So VP either O'Rourke or even better a younger woman but again,gotta have real chops but just as important that "Q" factor. If it were O'Rourke it would be important to stress southwestern roots and any Hispanic ties as the ticket could be derided over the 2 white guys thing.

On fast reflection-Warren and the one term pledge-Very likeable blend with O'Rourke. Gender swap out at a time when many think it's time for a woman and the one term promise addresses the age issue. O'Rourke is presented as a rising star attending the supreme finishing school while readying for leadership.

[Renew Deal]

73. One term pledges are a bad idea

Because they are easy to break and makes it seem like the presidency is handicapped from the beginning. Plus the VP spends the entire time running for president. You would also be asking people to judge you fully on both people rather than just the presidential candidate.

[octoberlib]

75. Does anybody in America even know who John Hickenlooper is besides residents of Colorado?

[Renew Deal]

76. Did anyone know Bill Clinton?

Or even Obama?

[disillusioned73]

80. Whomever has the best platform/ policies will(should) win...

Unless voters like personality better than substance... then, it's a crap shoot and we have essentially become what we despise.. the right

[lapfog_1]

81. Adam Schiff?

John Lewis?
Nancy Pelosi?
Maxine Waters?

I mean if you are putting random Democrats who have been on TV and include Tulsi Gabbard and Richard Ojeda... why not others?

[Renew Deal]

84. None have expressed interest in running

Or ended up on any list as potentially running. Do you really believe that anyone on that list other than maybe Schiff would run?

Gabbard is "making moves". https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/19/tulsi-gabbard-2020-presidential-bid-917418
Ojeda is actually running.

[Adrahil]

86. I think Gillebreand is not in the top 10

and Booker IS. I'd rank Harris higher.... behind Warren.

[Renew Deal]

87. WaPo, Politico, and PredictIt all have her there

As high as 4.

I have Warren at 4, but I have doubts about how she will play nationally.

[Adrahil]

89. I think they are wrong. I think she has no chance.

Lots of people like me not pleased with her.

[Renew Deal]

90. She was the most popular statewide elected official in 2018

I don't think the group upset about the Franken thing is that big. The question is going to be are they more important because of the energy they provide.

[Adrahil]

91. Okay. We shall see (maybe). I think she craters early.

I don't see her as having any particular draw. Her willingness to throw Franken under the bus rubbed me the wrong way (even if he was guilty, he deserved to be heard out (and so did his accusers).

[Trumpocalypse]

96. Several of the people on the list

called for Franken to resign including Sanders, Warren, Harris and Booker. As the OP pointed out she just won re-election with a huge majority. While the Franken thing may be a drag nationally with some, it didn’t hurt her in NY.

[Renew Deal]

98. It will depend on the competition

And who sucks up energy. O'Malley was very credible in 2016 but couldn't get past 1% in a field that included Hillary and Sanders. There was no audience left. I also think she can be out-inspired by Beto and maybe Warren.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

94. I agree. Surprised Hillary made the top 10 (9th)...but, then again, she did make it to #1

the 2nd time around, so, certainly not a shock to see her so high after retiring from running for office.

[Eric J in MN]

93. I don't think HRC will run.

The last time a major party presidential candidate lost the general and tried again 4 years later was the 1950s (Adlai Stevenson).

I think Cory Booker should be higher on the list.

[ananda]

101. I put Adam Schiff at the top and ..

.. Gillibrand at the bottom (of the sewer).