What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried?

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Republicans suffered a resounding defeat in the 2018 midterms. President Trump now faces investigations not only from special counsel Robert Mueller, but also from Democratic chairpersons who will be running committees in the House. Yet the president’s reaction to his increased political peril has been to invite more of it.

Trump needs the support of congressional Republicans to keep this threat at bay so he can execute his agenda and block any potential impeachment process. But his decision to remove U.S. troops from Syria irritated congressional Republicans. And that policy shift helped lead to the resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who congressional Republicans really liked. The president needs to get support from voters outside of his base to win re-election, but Trump’s proposed border wall is unpopular and the public was not in favor of shutting down the government over the wall.

All of that raises a big question: Is the president in danger of a serious challenge for the 2020 Republican presidential nomination? Right now, I don’t think Trump has too much to worry about. But there are two scenarios in which a primary challenger against Trump would be more viable than they are now — and either or both of them could happen in 2019.

Before we get to that, however: Why isn’t Trump in much trouble now? The president is very popular among Republican voters. According to Gallup polling, 89 percent of self-identified Republican voters approve of Trump.1 That support from within the party is similar to the level President George W. Bush enjoyed at this stage in his first term,2 according to Gallup; it’s significantly better than Bill Clinton or Barack Obama’s standing at this point in their presidencies.3

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/

Well that settles it. Republicanism is a cult.

[NurseJackie]

1. One of several.

Republicanism is a cult.

One of several.

[FakeNoose]

2. It would take Pootie and the Koch Brothers abandoning him

Just sayin'

[jberryhill]

3. A lot less than the 80% GOP support he enjoys

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. From the article:

“The first reason this is even a remote possibility is that Trump’s staunch support among Republicans isn’t all that it seems. Some political scientists have concluded that a bloc of Trump detractors who were once Republicans are now describing themselves as independents. Pew Research Center data suggests that a big bloc of people under 30 in particular have left the Republican Party in the Trump era. If many Republicans who dislike Trump are removing themselves from the sample, that would boost his average among those who remain. So if calling yourself a Republican essentially means that you like Trump, of course Trump’s approval rating is very high among Republicans.”

Party registration, especially for GOP, has dropped significantly in the past 30 years.

[EarnestPutz]

5. I think that it's a given that he will have several primary challengers.

Jeff Flake has been positioning himself for over a year, disagreeing
with Trump just enough to claim some independence without pissing
off his base, writing the obligatory book establishing his Utah, Mormon
family values and giving up his seat in the Senate to campaign more
effectively. There will be others whose ambition won't allow them to sit
on the sidelines until 2004, not just the perennial nut jobs like Rick
Santorum but other more qualified candidates. Kasich? Probably. A few
real unknowns, very likely. Remember in the 2016 primaries there were
18 candidates invited to the first primary debates, 12 to main debate and
six to the kids table.

[marylandblue]

6. I think Hogan is likely to challenge Trump

He's a popular 2nd term governor of a blue state, with low name recognition and nothing to lose. The sort of person who will appeal in those suburbs that Trump lost in 2018. He doesn't have to win. He just has to build his brand for a 2024 run, the way Reagan did in 1976.