New Model Forecasts a Very Close Election

[DonViejo]

April 4, 2019 at 7:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 76 Comments

[linkAbramowitzystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/assessing-trumps-chances-forecasting-the-2020-presidential-election/|Alan Abromowitz] explains the latest iteration of his “time for change” presidential election forecasting model.

“The most plausible prediction at this point, however, is for a very close contest. Given a net approval rating of -10, approximately where Trump’s approval rating has been stuck for most of the past year, and real GDP growth of between 1% to 2%, in line with most recent economic forecasts, the model predicts that he would receive between 263 and 283 electoral votes. Of course, it takes 270 electoral votes to win.”

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https://politicalwire.com/2019/04/04/model-forecasts-a-very-close-election/

[Stare Decisis]

1. The model is outdated because it does not take into account

demographic reality. It assumes all people from all walks of life see things the same way and is biased toward economic opinion and not the era of the electorate and nation self-actualizing.

It won't be close-IF WE DON"T SCREW IT UP. It is up to us to stay united and do the work.

[Demsrule86]

2. I think Trump could win.

Very worried.

[PatSeg]

3. I agree

And we cannot predict what is going to happen in the next two years with such an unpredictable, volatile man in the White House. I don't see the election as being close unless there is major widespread cheating.

[SlogginThroughIt]

4. A model without a candidate?

Man we thirst for information no matter how ridiculous it is.

[Buckeyeblue]

6. Yes, without a candidate this model cannot be evaluated correctly

Because we know that regions can reflect differently based on the candidate. For instance, Gov Pete B could flip Indiana if he were part of the ticket.

Or what about Beto or Castro from Texas?

You have to think Florida is always in play to go one way or the other. And I think Ohio could be as well if we have the right candidate.

Essentially, it all comes down to motivation to vote in 2020.

[unblock]

7. of course.

predictive models obviously have to make a variety of assumptions, and the more facts we have, such as who the candidate is, the more accurate the model can be, but that doesn't mean we can't have a working, valid model before that.

incumbency matters, the economy matters, scandals matter, etc., and all of those have nothing to do with who the democratic candidate is.

according the litchman's model, in fact, only one of the 13 keys is affected by the out-party's candidate -- challenger charisma. even there, it doesn't matter "who" the candidate is, only whether or not that candidate is a war hero or is very charismatic.


we also don't know whether or not we'll be in a recession by november 2020, but that obviously matters. we have to make some guesses, and those guesses will get better as we get closer to the election.

[True Blue American]

5. I have this bridge

Anyone want to buy it? No poll today is remotely close to being a sure thng.