I've Read And Keep Hearing That The Repugs Are Talking About Retaking The House.....

[global1]

Do they really have a chance at doing that in 2020? Is that realistic? Could it happen?

[luvallpeeps]

1. They'll certainly try, but if we show up, they can't.

Period.

[elleng]

2. They steal pretty well.

BEWARE.

[Skittles]

3. Russia helped them get the presidency

yes, they can take anything

[unitedwethrive]

8. Agreed...I'm far from a conspiracy theorist, but

everyone needs to be skeptical of the way mushroom dick was elected. It could easily happen again.

[dawg day]

4. I don't think so--

anything is possible with KGB collusion, but there was nasty in the 2018 election, there was voter outreach enough to overcome it.

It's really not fair that 55% is required rather than 51%, but I think basically overall, we got that. No one who didn't vote for Trump likes him. So it's really just a matter of GOTV.

True, there will be many red districts (I live in one) which won't switch. But i think all the Obama districts that magically somehow fell for Trump... that won't happen this time.

I hope.

[Xolodno]

5. The "red wave" helped them in 2010.

They took over state governments and then gerrymandered to their hearts content.

With that said, many states have been forced to revoke those districts. Add to that, the unpopular tax cuts, the inability for Republicans to get anything done...mean while, we keep pushing on issues, etc.

They can talk about retaking the house all they want, but right now, they need to figure out on how to hold the Senate. And the Presidency is jeopardy.

Your best barometer, Mitch McConnell's pushing and confirming conservative judges. That's the act of desperation, when you know your party will be sidelined for a very long time. Perfect example, John Adams appointing Federalist Party Judges at a feverish pace, because he knew his party was not only going to lose, but may likely never recover. So Federalist policy cast a long shadow in the courts for some time.

Adams probably hoped that the Federalist Party would revitalize if given time, obviously that notion was wrong.

[struggle4progress]

6. "All that is necessary for evil to triumph is that enough good people do nothing"

[Awsi Dooger]

7. We are a 70/30 betting favorite to hold the House

That is the equivalent of a 4.5 point favorite in an NFL game.

Hardly overwhelming favoritism. Threads and posts here don't seem to acknowledge how precarious it is. I just made that point in another thread. We are huge favorites to lose House seats in 2020. Once you are losing seats then the number you lose can snowball in a hurry.

The House is still heavily gerrymandered in Republican favor. We managed to overcome that in 2018 with an incredible +8 generic edge, picking off one suburban district after another. The likelihood of maintaining that type of edge in a presidential year against an incumbent is very slim. I would estimate less than 5% chance we have +8 or higher again. If it drops to only +4 or +5 then we're losing seats half dozens at a time.

We need Trump's approval rating to remain where it is...low 40s. That helps the House edge and everything else. Someone in another thread responded to grantcart's suggestion of drawn out hearings by complaining that it sounded like a draw. I don't mind a draw. I've been essentially begging for a draw against an incumbent in the final two years of his term, when that incumbent almost always rises in approval.

[Sherman A1]

9. Well,

If you were a Republican, wouldn't that be part of your planning? :


I think certain things are kinda a given. The party out of power wants to be in power and the party in power wants to retain the status quo.

[Vinca]

10. They always have a chance, but we've got quite a large margin so it wouldn't be easy.

The GOP should focus on the Senate because that's where they're vulnerable in 2020, but let's not tell them. LOL.