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Sun Sep 15, 2019, 01:18 PM

5 % of Daily Production of oil lost due to bombing. Can "THE OTHER" oil producers cover this 5%?

What other countries produce this stuff? Mexico, United States, Russia, Venezuela, other Mid East countries. You tell me? I don't know all of this one. Sure, initial uptake in price. What else is new? Then, after a while, "THE OTHER PRODUCERS" fill the gap in production. Do you think that "THE OTHERS" can increase production to cover that 5% loss? Well I do.

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Reply 5 % of Daily Production of oil lost due to bombing. Can "THE OTHER" oil producers cover this 5%? (Original post)
Stuart G Sep 15 OP
The Velveteen Ocelot Sep 15 #1
Stuart G Sep 15 #2
gelsdorf Sep 15 #3
Stuart G Sep 15 #4
Midnight Writer Sep 15 #5
FBaggins Sep 15 #6
KY_EnviroGuy Sep 15 #7

Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Sun Sep 15, 2019, 01:21 PM

1. 5% of what? What are you talking about?

My ESP isn't working today.

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #1)

Sun Sep 15, 2019, 01:25 PM

2. 5 % of daily production of refined oil..(as in the attacked Saudi oil facilities)

Those attacked facilities produced 5 percent of the world's refined oil. They have been blown up. So I am saying the rest of the facilities can cover that 5 percent. At least I think so.
(.....I have changed the headline for clarity..)

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Sun Sep 15, 2019, 01:26 PM

3. Not without a major increase per gallon here

followed by price increases on staples we need,
followed by slowly falling per gallon gas prices,
followed by staple prices staying stable

We are screwed....AGAIN!!!

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Response to gelsdorf (Reply #3)

Sun Sep 15, 2019, 01:29 PM

4. Well??? Major increase to 4.00 a gallon? Or to what?

Think about this....cost of car (few extras) in late 60s ...$2,000
...........................cost of gal of gas...............35-40cents.

same car today...few extras.......times 7............................14,000 -18,000
gas today...................times 7.........................$2.40-3.00...yes some places less,

..............................bottom line....Yes, we can afford $4.00 a gallon for a while. I believe that other producers will make up for the loss...(after a while)

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Sun Sep 15, 2019, 01:37 PM

5. Fill up your gas tanks today.

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Sun Sep 15, 2019, 01:45 PM

6. Yes, but at higher prices

OPEC just agreed to about a 2 million bpd cut continuation to keep prices up. That can disappear as prices will be higher without the artificial constraints.

Then thereís US production with at least a million bpd shut in by lower prices and (my guess) another million that can ramp up quickly if prices climb anywhere close to what is feared.

The rest can be covered by stored reserves (possibly even those in Saudi Arabia) while other production ramps up. One question I have is whether the attack will actually force Trump to deal with Iran (which has quite a bit of oil production that it canít sell)

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Sun Sep 15, 2019, 03:03 PM

7. Yes, but too early to gage the full impact.

Oil price will be set more by short-term fear for a while, then settle down. Market boys will make a ton playing the stocks on Monday.

A couple of good reads on the subject....

Saudi attack should have limited effect on U.S.
By David Harrison
MarketWatch

Published: Sept 15, 2019

Link: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/saudi-attack-should-have-limited-effect-on-us-2019-09-15?mod=mw_theo_homepage

(snip)
The latest drone strikes on Saudi Arabian oil-production facilities likely would have a limited direct effect on the U.S. economy, but could result in higher gas prices, potentially exerting an additional drag on slowing global growth, economists say.

While the total impact of the Saturday attacks remains unknown, analysts say the U.S. economy is very different than it was in the 1970s, when surging oil prices tipped the economy into recession. Oil-price shocks no longer pack the same punch, they say.


And, from Europe......

Saudi attacks: Oil price to spike as production halves
The kingdom's oil production has dropped by 5.7 million barrels a day after Saturday's drone strikes on two processing facilities. As Riyadh and Washington point the finger at Tehran, the price of oil is set to rise.


Link: https://www.dw.com/en/saudi-attacks-oil-price-to-spike-as-production-halves/a-50436395

(snip)
Global oil prices are set to rise sharply after Saturday's attacks on two Saudi Arabian oil refineries cut the country's oil production by more than half, energy analysts have predicted.
++++
"Any attack on Saudi Arabia is sure to shake oil markets because they currently hold the majority of spare crude production capacity," warned Bernadette Johnson, vice president of market intelligence at energy analysts Enverus.

She said if the production cut was prolonged, "we should expect to see a big jump in price until the fields return."

The financial channel CNBC cited several energy analysts as saying that oil prices could immediately spike by $5-$10 when markets reopen on Sunday night (US time), while other commentators predicted $100 (Ä90) per barrel of oil. On Friday, Brent crude traded at $60.22 a barrel.

KY..........

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