General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsComing: A unique stalemate scenario if Trump & Pence are clearly guilty of impeachable offenses!
Let's say that it becomes clear that both Trump and Pence have committed very serious, easily provable acts that make both subject to removal from office. What might happen? Remember that a majority vote of both houses is required for confirmation of a new VP.
Certainly the GOP Senate under McConnell would not allow both Trump and Pence to be removed simultaneously, or even one at a time, without the confirmation of a new GOP VP to assume the presidency. That would block Nancy Pelosi from becoming the president by default. Of course the Democratic controlled House would not be in favor of a Pence or Trump appointed VP being confirmed, which would ensure that the GOP would retain control of the White House.
That would produce a stalemate that could lead to a singularly unique scenario: A coalition form of government. Of course that could also lead to a stalemate such that two criminals would continue to hold the two highest offices in the land until the inauguration of a new president and VP in 2021.
Imagine the possibilities.....Republicans preventing a Democrat from becoming the VP, and eventually, president......Democrats preventing the selection of a Republican to become the VP, and eventually, the president......neither side giving in.....and both Trump and Pence remaining in office through the election, regardless of who would be on the GOP ticket.
Of course the GOP certainly would not relish the thought of running a set of candidates while two Republican criminals retain their White House positions. Can you imagine the dynamics of such a campaign? The difficulties that the GOP knows it would find itself in would give the Democrats leverage during negotiations, but would the GOP fold?
On the other side of the ledger, the Democrats would be apoplectic at the thought that two criminals would head the executive branch until January of 2021. That reality would give the GOP leverage.
The possibilities are endlessly fascinating, and I'd love to hear a good sampling of your thoughts as to the possible dynamics of that situation, along with your opinions about possible final outcomes. Might the stalemate, with intense pressure on both sides, lead to a coalition government, or would a stalemate continue until the end, and how might either scenario unfold?
lame54
(35,321 posts)tableturner
(1,684 posts)guillaumeb
(42,641 posts)That is the theory. But McConnell, for all of his ethical faults, is a politician who knows how to use the system. Assuming Trump is impeached, tried, and convicted, Pence would not be judged by the Senate jury at the same time.
When Agnew left, Nixon appointed Ford with the understanding that Ford would pardon Nixon.
tableturner
(1,684 posts)guillaumeb
(42,641 posts)But that appointment would require confirmation by BOTH Houses of Congress.
So, knowing that, would the GOP try to drag out the process, as they are doing, and hope for a GOP victory?
Big Blue Marble
(5,150 posts)Think about this scenario which has an upside and downsides.
The Republicans realize that both Pence and Trump are dragging them all down.
They are both forced to resign, Pence first. like Agnew. The Dems agree to
a moderate Republican who promises not to run in 2020 who is appointed
by Trump who agrees to resign if he and his children are pardoned.
This opens the 2020 race wide open for Romney or Rubio etc. And they would
have a much better chance to hold the Presidency and the Senate.
The Republicans will never accept Pelosi. Her presidency would seem like a coup
and forment violence in the country. This compromise might be successful, but
offers more dangers for in 2020 race than for the Republicans.
leftieNanner
(15,149 posts)Even though both of them are guilty of many impeachable acts, I don't think the House will go after both of them simultaneously. I think they will target The Orange One - as he is currently the most dangerous one in the White House. They may hold some hearings to damage Pence. My guess is that Trump will be gone (yes, I think the Senate will vote to remove him), and they will pick someone ostensibly sane (Paul Ryan?) to fill the VP spot. Paulie has recently moved to DC, so I'm sure he's positioning himself for some upward mobility. He's also on the Board at Fox News and he's doing his best to ease that vile place away from Trump without totally pissing off the Magats.
Then, if Pence behaves himself for a year, he's allowed to crawl back to Indiana with Mother and get some BS million dollar lobbying job or something.
That will put Ryan in line to run for Pres in 2020. He might pick someone like Liz Chaney to be his running mate.
guillaumeb
(42,641 posts)That might rule out Ryan.
leftieNanner
(15,149 posts)Maybe just Liz Chaney then? AAAAGGGGHHHHHH
Romney?
guillaumeb
(42,641 posts)Volaris
(10,274 posts)Trump resigns, pence becomes president and pardons trump of all FEDERAL CRIMES (he can takes his chances with NY State), on the singular condition that pence selects Hillary Clinton his VP; pence immediately resigns and hillary issues him the same pardon trump got.
This, or theres an explicit understanding that whoever's is the next democratic president will nominate Hillary to be the AG, and her same can be signed to the bottom of every indictment these clown' crimes can produce, down to arguing parking tickets in DC muny court.
Make her president and walk away, or she can get the credit for putting EVERYONE IN JAIL.
Because fuck you, McConnell.
madinmaryland
(64,933 posts)a caretaker President.
Volaris
(10,274 posts)I want these fucker wanna-be nazis to FEEL how badly they fucked this up.
Even if not one of them goes to jail, having to watch hillary get sworn in is something we get to watch the deplorables rend garments and gnash teeth over...and we get to REMIND THEM, FOR THE REST OF THEIR DEPLORABLE LIVES, that it was because of and the result of...
Their Republican GodEmperor, and the Republican Party that supported him, that put her in power.
It allows us to kick them every time they try to crawl out from their rock again for at least the next 50 years.
unblock
(52,317 posts)Well this is assuming the senate in principle is ok with removing both under the right circumstances.
Everyone agrees Donnie has to go. Republicans can't defy Donnie to impeach pence and then leave Donnie in place.
Then they won't be able to agree on a veep, and they won't remove pence without a Republican veep.
So they'll just leave it vacant for the rest of the term.
leftieNanner
(15,149 posts)Leave the VP spot empty? I would think there might be a constitutional problem with that.
I think they will find someone. Maybe a Senator who is likely to lose reelection. Joni Ernst?
unblock
(52,317 posts)The constitution didn't provide for filling a vacancy in that spot until 1967, so it was vacant on 16 occasions prior to that.
Even now, filling it requires approval from both houses of Congress, so it remains vacant until that happens.
They can't be forced to approve anyone.
tableturner
(1,684 posts)kentuck
(111,110 posts)What would our government look like without a President??
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Speaker Pelosi could deny approval because the person was selected by someone was being impeached.
dweller
(23,661 posts)chrome dome speculation here, pulling out the mats by fistfulls of follicles trying to configure WHAT IF..
when it's most likely going to go on for many many months of investigating and
building up of the facts in the Impeachment inquiry that will eventually develop
into an Impeachment resolution.. that will land in the wet lap of Moscow Mitch sometime right before Nov 20, and IF ! note that i qualified IF the media does its job of providing FACTS along the way, then there will be a sweeping election that
will give US <- yep, this
a small 4 year respite of Democratic political power... but no matter...
by then, climate change and the oncoming repercussions of the big, beautiful
Blue Ball we call home will be leveling us all... and we won't have time for political bs ...
but, we at least we'll have gone with a bang, and not a whimper ...
scratching my head sometimes, not pulling my hair out here... 🤔
✌🏼
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)If republicans see that both Trump and Oence will go down, they will accept someone like William Weld if Weld promises to end his 2020 aspirations. Weld is running to obstensively save the Republican Party from Trump, Trump gone and Weld filling in with the chance for a more palatable republican winning in 2020 may be enough to get Moscow Mitch to pull the trap door on Trump and Pence if evidence is damaging enough.