Nate Silver has Florida light blue today with a 59.2% Obama win prediction for November 6! UPDATED

[Samantha]

Last edited Wed Sep 5, 2012, 05:26 PM - Edit history (1)

Check out the site here, then point to Florida on the map:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

Michigan: 93.0 percent chance of Obama win November 6

Virginia: 69.8 percent chance of Obama win November 6

Colorado: 69.0 percent chance of Obama win November 6

Ohio: 71.5 percent chance Obama

PA: 91.2 percent chance Obama

Electoral College prediction: 308.2 (Obama) 229.8 Romney

Massachusetts: 99.2 percent chance of Obama win (yes, I know this is not a swing state, but Romney was such a swell governor there)

Wisconsin: 77.3 percent chance of Obama win (Message from Wisconsin voters to rest of nation: to know Ryan is to not vote for him)

Geez, if this election becomes any closer, I just won't be able to take it!

Sam

[nc4bo]

1. It's a definite pony race!

Let's keep working like our lives depended on it!!

[elleng]

3. They DO.

Remember they're CROOKS!!!

[NotThisTime]

9. +1000

[elleng]

2. GREAT!

Now we just have to look out for hanging chads and such.

[Samantha]

4. Very, very true

as well as sudden power failures at polling stations, which when rebooted show totally different totals than when the lights went out .... remember that one, Ohio 2004?

Sam

[elleng]

5. VERY scary, those 2 governors and legislatures.

and then there's Pennsylvania.

Gotta refill my anti-anxiety meds.

[Cali_Democrat]

8. Power failures at polling stations.....

likely in predominantly African American communities.

[Hamlette]

6. Whenever I read "oh my god we're gonna lose" I got to Nate's site and calm down.

I'll keep a close eye on it. Last time I went to Colorado and knocked on doors with four friends. I live in Utah and its a waste of time to do any work here, even more so this year.

[OriginalGeek]

7. I'll do my part to keep it that way

&feature=fvwrel

[davidpdx]

10. I like Nate Silver's numbers

I personally think the EV will be close to 332. More then enough to win, but not as big as in 2008.

[Samantha]

11. What would be wonderful would be if Ryan lost both his VP bid AND his house seat

He could join the great ranks of the unemployed! And if Eric Cantor goes ....

Sam

[davidpdx]

28. That might be a bit to wish for in one election

I suppose it is possible that the people in Ryan's district could see how much of a dick he really is and vote him out at the same time the Romney/Ryan ticket is losing.

[Samantha]

30. Maybe it is, but I am going to keep on wishing, and hoping and thinking

to borrow a phrase, because it would be so great!

Sam

[davidpdx]

41. The best thing him about losing both races is it would pretty much finish his political career

I'm sure he'd have plenty of offers in lobbying or "think tanks".

[Samantha]

42. It is one of the things truly delicious to think about during this horrendous election season

Perhaps it would be too good to be true (I was kind of chastised above for daydreaming about it), but, you know anything is possible. I would also love for Cantor to go down with him. Then we would be humming.

Thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

[Greybnk48]

12. When I think of Wisconsin going back to blue

my chest tightens up. I cannot tell you how some of us feel here after being molested by Walker, Kathy Nicholas, the Fitzgeralds, et. al. and Ron Johnson and Reed Ribble. Kleefisch is sort of just there, a nothing. And now the embarrassment that is Reince Priebus and Paul Ryan. Too much! And I almost forgot the re-emergence of the sleaziest drunk you'd ever meet, Tommy Thompson.

I hope we CRUSH the repugs everywhere. I've had it with them!

And this is bad, but I hope that horrid slug Sensenbrenner has a nice long karmic visit while he's recovering from breaking his hip and arm (awww). He was probably sloshed at the time he fell; another sot.

*end of rant* Thanks to whoever reads this.

[Samantha]

13. Thank you so much for posting your gut feelings here -- we all wish the best for Wisconsin

I think President Obama and VP Biden have a great chance of actually getting more votes, but I cannot factor in how much of a threat the determination to steal the election is. I do know the Republicans motto this time around is TWIT: Do Whatever It Takes. We saw the depths of dishonesty they were willing to go to in 2000 and 2004 to manipulate the results. I personally think they have NO limits on what they do this time.

But my hope is that Obama washes in with a huge plurality that would make the election impossible for Republicans to purloin. Additionally, I have hope that Ryan will go down in his bid for his Congressional seat. Lose the VP bid, lose the House seat, join the ranks of the unemployed. And that certainly would be great for Wisconsin, as well as the rest of the nation.

Thank you for posting on this thread.

Sam

[Greybnk48]

16. Thank you, Samantha! n/t

[tjdee]

19. I would LOVE to see Ryan lose his house seat.

That would be the best bonus ever.

[Samantha]

23. I need to figure out how to check how that race is going

Maybe someone from Wisconsin could tell us.

I think about this everyday. I would love to see Ryan and Cantor totally wipe out in their election bids. What a message that would send to the rest of the ultra-right wing. It has to help that President Obama is starting to build such a healthy lead there.

Sam

[Samantha]

32. Hey, I just re-read it for the third time

Believe me, I am very sympathetic. Tommy Thompson was a joke here in DC, I mean literally, people laughed at him.

I just can't get started on Walker, Nicholas, the Fitzgeralds but I think I can imagine how you feel because they are a disgrace to Wisconsin, as they would be anywhere, but handy for the Koch Brothers to reach out and buy, so I am with you. I hope they go down, and big time.

It is time for the people of Wisconsin to get their state back. For a long time, that state was recognized for being the home of the labor movement and the epitome of fair elections. Maybe when the dust of these elections settle, it will be again.

Sam

[ChoppinBroccoli]

14. Ohio Gets Deeper Blue Every Time I Visit That Site

And being from Ohio, that makes me happy. I think Rmoney had visions of stealing Ohio, but he can thank his good buddy K-suck for turning a lot of loyal Republican voting blocs against the Republican Party 2 years ago.

Now, if the Democrats are SMART, and at some point (maybe even several points) during the Convention remind the teachers, nurses, police officers, and firefighters of the nation what the Republican Party TRIED to do to them a couple years ago, and who stood up for them, we'll likely see Ohio turn a beautifully deep shade of blue by November.

Mitt is toast.

[Samantha]

24. I read some time ago Romney supports a NATIONAL right to work law

but I haven't seen that discussed much, along with his actual other policy goals. I think that would make a huge impact upon the union vote as well as those of us who have never belonged to a union but ardently support them, giving them unqualified credit for making the lives of middle class people better.

Another thing that would make a huge difference is that Republicans support cancelling the mortgage interest deduction of Federal income tax returns. I read that was going to be in the Republican platform, but I have not had the time to check it out. But if that is true, and I hope to look into it soon, that would sway a ton of people of all parties.

Thank you for posting on my thread. I too like you hope Mitt is toast.

Sam

[abumbyanyothername]

31. Actually

Elimination of the mortgage interest deduction is good policy.

But like higher gasoline prices (also great policy), it is bad politics.

[Samantha]

35. I am going to very politely disagree with you and here is why

The housing market is just starting to recover. I can't think of a single thing that would discourage people from investing in a home than the ability to deduct the interest on their mortgage from their taxes. And that is the last thing the housing market needs now -- something to discourage people from purchasing.

Additionally, some people just could not afford to buy a house without that deduction. Everyone deserves a fair shot at home ownership. It is also great for neighborhoods to be occupied by permanent residents than streets full of renters. Renters just do not feel as invested, and do not, many times -- not talking about all renters -- keep it up as far as mowing the grass as often and picking up trash. Of course I am talking about neighborhoods with houses, not apartments.

But I do agree it is bad politics, so I am halfway there with you!

Sam

[abumbyanyothername]

38. Well . . .

I am thinking a little further outside the box than that.

I believe that as a nation our primary responsibility is sustainability -- or even beyond sustainability to leaving the natural resources of our nation and ultimately our planet in better condition than we found them.

Encouraging consumption is directly counter to that responsibility.

And, whatever its other merits, the mortgage interest deduction encourages consumption of larger and basically more wasteful houses.

I am also not convinced that home ownership is quite the value it is made out to be. Among other things, cultures of high home ownership have higher rates of unemployment.

But I can see how you reach the conclusion that you reach.

[reformist2]

15. It never ceases to amaze me that Cali is 99.9% certain to go for Obama.

It's the biggest sign ever the Repugs are on the wrong side of history.

[Samantha]

27. Vermont and NY are both 100%

So is Illinois at 100% but that is to be expected. Still 3 at 100%, not bad, right?

Sam

[BumRushDaShow]

17. Hope it holds!

[tjdee]

18. Isn't Romney really fighting an uphill battle?

I mean, sure it is close in the 'tossup' states, but doesn't Romney have to win ALL of those?

Obama did not squeak by in 2008, no matter what the media says. He has a very, very strong chance of doing what he needs to do to pull this out.

Unless he's cheated.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. I Don't Think The Media Said 08 Was A Squeaker

53% -46% is a nice size win, somewhere between substantial and a landslide.

[tjdee]

21. I dunno--for me, I feel way more comfortable when I think about the ec vote in 2008.

And it seems to me that the media is doing this big nailbiter thing, like omgomg so close....

and that's my question. Is it me? Obama had a comfortable win, Romney has to pull ALL the tossups, or a significant amount of them..... shouldn't the story be that Romney is the underdog who has to have a damn near miracle?

As I said, I get that the individual states are close but....I dunno, it's probably just me.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

22. I Really Think The Media Is TRYING To Keep It Close

Or at least make people THINK it's still close. Back in '96 (which is the election I've been comparing this one to for months), everyone pretty much conceded that Dole was going to get his clock cleaned. I think the media is artificially propping up Rmoney for a couple of reasons. First, so they will still have things to report for the next few months (i.e. ratings), and second, to make sure that right-wingers still show up to vote (because if they know it's going to be a blowout, why bother?) I think they also want to make sure that the Republicans continue to hand over the billions of dollars they've got saved up in their advertising accounts (again, because if they have no chance, why spend the money on advertising?)

As I've said before, I don't think Rmoney has any hope at all of winning without taking Ohio, and Ohio is slowly but surely slipping away from him. He also has to flip a whole lot of other battleground States where he's trailing and fading as well. After riding the "naming the running mate" bounce and the convention bounce, Rmoney's current numbers are as high as they're ever going to be, and he STILL trails in almost all the battleground States. His numbers will do nothing but drop from here on out. Obama will get a convention bounce that will dwarf Rmoney's, eliminating whatever surge he got in the last few weeks, and then when Obama makes a babbling fool out of Rmoney in the debates, it will all be over but the right-wing whining.

[IL Lib]

25. Agreed. The media is calling this closer than it actually is.

For all of the reasons you've stated. Also, it wouldn't be in the interest of neither campaign to argue against it for a variety of reasons. Imo, the internet is more indicative of what's likely to happen (following predicted electoral gains, etc).

[joshcryer]

26. They have to. It would hurt their bottom line if they reported accurately.

If they didn't send the tight race narrative they would simply have nothing to discuss, viewers would tune out, and go about their daily lives as opposed to be glued to the talking heads.

[abumbyanyothername]

33. rMoney's path to victory

Must sweep FLA and OH.

Then must take 2 of 3 from CO, IA and VA.

Or turn WI. And then win 4 out of 5 of the above.

I just don't think that's possible at all.

But we have a ways to go.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

37. Explain why the media wants repukes to vote? What do you

think will happen with the debates? Hope Obama pushes MR's buttons..the ones that make him look like a neurotic, anal retentive, snivel. He gets so shaky, and his voice goes up an octave, and his speech speeds up. Hopefully the O Team has figured all this out.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

39. Why Does The Media Want RWers To Vote?

Who owns the media outlets? Rich guys. And by extension, who controls what content/stories the news media airs? Rich guys. And who do rich guys want to win the election?

There's your answer.

[DonRedwood]

29. Yo! Samantha!

Thanks for linking this story!! I saw it this morning before work and it made me SO happy!!! All day long it kept popping into my head (along with the song "Blue Moon&quot and it put me in the best danged mood.

Many thanks!

[Samantha]

36. Yo, DonRedwood!

It was my pleasure to make you feel happy. And thanks for posting on my thread. You made me happy too!

Sam

[Laura PourMeADrink]

34. like "swell governor"....Is "swell" coming back to cool?

[Rowdyboy]

40. And he has Florida up to 62.2% now....

And its the state he projects to be closest.

If his current projections for the individual states hold Obama would win by 332 to 206 electoral votes.

[Samantha]

43. Hey, Rowdyboy, thanks for that info -- I went back to look for changes since I posted this

Before:

Michigan: 93.0 percent chance of Obama win November 6
Today 93.6

Virginia: 69.8 percent chance of Obama win November 6
Today 71.2

Colorado: 69.0 percent chance of Obama win November 6
Today 70.3

Ohio: 71.5 percent chance Obama
Today 72.1

PA: 91.2 percent chance Obama
Today 91.8

Electoral College prediction: 308.2 (Obama) 229.8 Romney
Obama 310.9; Romney 227.1

Massachusetts: 99.2 percent chance of Obama win (yes, I know this is not a swing state, but Romney was such a swell governor there)
Obama 99.4

Wisconsin: 77.3 percent chance of Obama win (Message from Wisconsin voters to rest of nation: to know Ryan is to not vote for him)
Obama 79.1

Question: Obviously there is an upward trend for President Obama and a downward one for Romney. Do you think this is the impact of the convention or a national trend that was destined to be despite the convention?

I wouldn't have made the time, Rowdyboy, to look without your thread, so thank you very much.

Sam

THIS IS VERY EXCITING! MAYBE PRESIDENT OBAMA IS STARTING TO BREAK AWAY BIG TIME.

[Rowdyboy]

45. I've really gotten hooked on checking his site several times a day....

I can't wait to see his take late next week when the numbers have settled. I think we may all breathe a little easier then.

[Samantha]

46. That is what I was thinking

I don't know how often he posts new predictions, but I was surprised to see the uptick I found this evening from what I just posted in the original thread. So maybe things will be worth watching very closely over the next few days. If you watch it and post it, I will keep a lookout and join your thread. This is one is getting a little long.

Sam

[Rowdyboy]

48. He's made yet another slight adjustment that you'll enjoy...

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[Samantha]

49. 311.2 Electoral College? I noticed President Obama has gained 10.8 percent since August 29

and naturally Romney has dropped 10.8 percent. Looks like a trend to me. It picking up speed. Can't wait to see what happens in the next couple of days.

Is this change in the electoral college prediction what you meant? The remarks on the left about the weather tomorrow night were interesting as well!

Thanks, Rowdyboy.

Sam

BTW: That 310.9 in the update was from this morning. It rose to 311.2 by this evening. Can't wait to see what it is tomorrow. And then tomorrow night -- after his speech!!!

[Rowdyboy]

50. He's upgraded Florida to 62.6% now....

Betta and betta....

[Samantha]

51. Right! This morning is was 59.2 -- that is a 3.4 increase within the day

The stats I read this morning were submitted 9/5. I think the change in Florida is incredible. Some election experts say Romney cannot win without Florida. Thanks again!

Sam

[lpbk2713]

44. Mittens and Rick Scott --- Two peas from the same pod.

That's the only point we need to make and we're home free.

[Samantha]

47. I think you are right -- I have a Republican friend in Florida who just can't stand Scott

He is a very well-to-do, rational person, and he always says "I didn't vote for him and quite frankly I don't anyone who did." Maybe my friend doesn't know you don't have to win the most votes to be declared the winner in Florida....

Thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam