So if Trump's tax case goes to the Supremes, how will they vote?

[Stinky The Clown]

I'm thinking he loses. I think it will be at least 5-4 and maybe better. Its John Roberts' court and I think he's concerned about his rep in history. He will do the right thing and uphold the lower court. I actually think BooferBeerBoy will vote against him so as to demonstrate independence. Not as sure about Gorsuch.

I think Slappy will side with MalevolentMango. Not sure about anyone else.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. I also think he loses.

The reasoning and authority underlying the Court of Appeals' opinion are really solid; the Supremes would have to overturn an awful lot of established law to decide differently. And I hope Roberts assigns Kavanaugh to write the opinion because it would make Fat Nixon's head explode. There would be an epic Twitter fit in which he threatens to fire the whole Supreme Court (except maybe for Thomas), which of course he can't do. Or at least he will accuse them of being compromised Democrats in the employ of the Deep State, George Soros and/or Ukraine.

[walkingman]

4. Fat Nixon!!! :hattip:

[LonePirate]

7. Kavanaugh would only write it if he was in the majority (and assigned by Roberts).

I have a tough time believing Kav would side against 45 even with all of the precedents suggesting 45 will lose.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

10. Kavanaugh doesn't owe Trump anything. That's why, contrary to the opinions of some,

lifetime appointments of justices are in most respects a good thing, meaning Kavanaugh isn't beholden to him. Like Gorsuch, he is an originalist like Scalia was, which suggests that he is more likely rather than less to follow the precedents cited by the 2nd Circuit.

[sacto95834]

14. This case....

is too important for Roberts to assign if it affirms the Appeals Court. He will write for the majority; thus assuring his name is remembered for a very important case sure to make the Constitutional Law text books.

However I do not see case being unanimous. For sure Alito and probably Thomas will dissent. Not sure what the two Trump appointees will do.

[Raster]

2. SCOTUS may choose to not hear the case...

...Allowing the Appeals Court ruling to stand.

[Sneederbunk]

5. This is their way out.

[leftieNanner]

6. I think you're right

This particular court appeal goes to RBG's office for consideration. Besides, it's a state matter, not federal. Even though The Orange One makes a Federal Case out of Everything!

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

9. No, RBG can only decide matters relating to stays. The whole court votes on cert.,

and four justices have to vote to hear the case. The 2nd Circuit said it is subject to federal jurisdiction - they didn't buy the abstention argument.

[leftieNanner]

15. Aha.

Thanks for that explanation.

[Johonny]

11. This is what I was thinking

[flotsam]

18. That's my bet.

If they grant Cert they have 2 possible outcomes either of which is bad for them-their actual choices are:

A. Rule against trump and endure his wrath.
B.Rule he is in fact above all law.
Or instead:
C.Accept the SDNY issued a clear and narrow ruling that introduces no questions of law.

Jeepers-one option seems to cause them no problem.

[rampartc]

3. trump wins 5-4

and future presidents become entirely above the law, for as long as they can sieze (by any means) and hold power.

obviously (by federalist society standards) the original intent of the founders was an unchecked unitary executive with compliant legislature and rubber stamp courts.

feseralist society : Gorsuch, Alito, Roberts, Clarence Thomas
trump loyalist : kavanaugh

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

8. Nope. Read the opinion. It's solid.

There's a pretty good chance the Supremes won't even hear the case - the 2nd Circuit drafted their opinion so carefully and narrowly that I think they did it on purpose so certiorari wouldn't be granted.

[beachbumbob]

12. Its the states's rights issue on investigations, trump will lose and it won;t be 5-4

[Snackshack]

13. If SCOTUS...

Rules in favor of trump then any lingering doubt about the court still being an unbiased arbiter of justice will be gone and Roberts will go down in history as the Chief Justice who turned the Supreme Court into a political arm of the GOP. Barr has already done this to the DOJ. Hopefully Roberts does not do this to the court.

My guess is that they refuse to hear the case and leave the appellate courts ruling in place.

My hope is that they hear the case and rule against trump unanimously to send a strong signal that they are not an extension of the GOP and trump has to turn over the tax docs.

[dawg day]

16. It's difficult to overturn narrow rulings like the one in the court of appeals

Then again, the Trump majority find ways to rule irrationally all the time.

US V Nixon was a unanimous verdict-- against Nixon, who had appointed several of them. But it's a different time.

[Fiendish Thingy]

17. On the NY AG case it could be a toss up, however, there's another case...

For Trump's taxes and accountant's records that is Pending appeal by House Intelligence and Finance committees. If that case goes to SCOTUS, I find it hard to conceive the court would rule that the Intelligence committee has no authority to investigate the president to determine if he is a foreign asset, especially during an impeach,net inquiry.

An appeals ruling on the House case by a lower court is expected this month- it could be the game changer.