The Tesla Truck Is Coming Today. Here's What That Means for Ford and GM Stock

[Zorro]

The Tesla “cyberpunk” pickup truck is coming. That much is obvious to investors following the space. Tesla’s reveal event—happening Thursday evening in Los Angeles—is a big deal for car people. What’s not obvious is what the truck will look like or how it will perform.

That isn’t all that’s opaque. The impact of Tesla’s truck ambitions on existing U.S. truck giants Ford Motor and General Motors is also difficult to call.

“Citi data suggests Ford has more headline risk than GM,” Citigroup analyst Itay Michaeli wrote in a Thursday research report. “If Tesla’s pickup impresses, Ford is competitively more exposed to share-loss risk than GM, with materially higher [earnings] exposure.”

That makes sense. Ford (ticker: F) is a bigger truck maker than General Motors (GM) and a large portion of its profits come from trucks. But Michaeli goes deeper in his research note. Ford sells more trucks with selling prices greater than $60,000. The Tesla (TSLA) truck will likely be positioned for the higher end of truck buyers based on its existing models and the high cost of batteries powering electric vehicles.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-truck-reveal-today-ford-gm-stock-51574345280

[RainCaster]

1. At 8:00PM Pacific

In case you want to see it earlier, you will be disappointed. Tesla says they will live stream it on their website. https://www.tesla.com/

[MineralMan]

2. The market for a pickup EV is undefined, so far.

We'll have to wait and see if there is a demand for such a thing.

[coti]

14. I expect the pickup is what will finally fully integrate EV's into the mainstream,

mostly by the power of the electric motor, which industrial-types will start seeing with their own eyes.

[MineralMan]

16. Do you own a pickup? If so, how do you use it?

[coti]

21. No, not yet, but have been looking at the coming pickup EV's for a long time.

I do already own an EV and am very familiar with their capabilities. If truck owners are looking for power- which they seem to be- electric motors are going to be capable of supplying whatever they may need plus some, and with far less maintenance than ICE's. In particular for local purposes- hauling or towing things around town, or within or between counties- they will see that the electric motor is far superior.

Plus, they'll be able to beat all of their buddies in a drag race.

[MineralMan]

23. So, how will you use a pickup truck?

I mean, what's the point if you don't need that bed in the back? While a few folks buy their pickups as extensions of their manhood, most buy them to do stuff that requires an open cargo area. There are others who buy them to bolster their egos, but they are a tiny minority of pickup owners. Trucks are useful for many people, so they're popular.

I'm not seeing the attraction, though, of a pickup truck EV. I'm just not.

[coti]

25. Mostly trips to the dump. We're in a small town but basically suburban, no industrial needs.

Maybe hauling around furniture or bigger purchases occasionally. Garden stuff. There have definitely been times when it would have been more convenient to be able to haul larger items or piles of junk.

We might also get a 5th wheel at some point.

But part of my thinking is we're also outfitted with a big PV system and we already get a lot of our transport energy from this huge fusion reactor we found just sitting there in the sky, ha ha. We have two cars and I wouldn't mind replacing my current EV commuter with a less energy-efficient EV pickup.

[MineralMan]

33. For those uses, you will be better off with a decent used pickup.

Mine won't go more than about 750 miles a year. Two tanks of gas a year. That's how I use it, just as you describe. I paid $1100 for a 23-year-old Ford Ranger that ran OK. I put four new tires on it and a couple of other parts, bringing my total cost to about $1500. Given its current condition, it's not going to need any work done on it for a few thousand miles. So, my cost of ownership is going to be really reasonable. Licence tabs won't cost much, because they're based on the vehicle's value. Insurance is also cheap, because I don't need any collision coverage.

The truck has a four cylinder engine and a standard transmission. If I keep it for two years, I'll be able to sell it for $1500 easily. Depreciation is done on it at this point. As long as it starts, drives, and stops I can sell it for at least $1500 at any time.

A pickup you'll only use as a truck once in a while is not worth the money. You'd be better off with an old used truck and a second small EV for other uses.

I'd be willing to bet you never buy a Tesla EV Pickup. I'd bet you don't even consider buying one seriously.

Oh, yeah, there's one other thing about owning a pickup. You get to deal with the "Could you help me move some stuff?" questions from people you barely know. Practice this line: "Well, the truck's not running that great right now, and I'm really busy. Sorry."

[coti]

35. That definitely occurred to me but it would mean a 3rd car.

And, again, I'd still need to make sure there was enough power to tow a 5th wheel if we ever did something like that. With that needed power, it could cost quite a bit more than $1,500. So that's why it could be a good decision to just replace my EV commuter, which owning an EV pickup could make obsolete as far as our family is concerned.

[OriginalGeek]

34. I use mine for work

BUT I'm in IT/Telecom so I just have to haul around tools and supplies. I bought a Chevy Colorado 2 years ago and I've loved it ever since. I have a hard-shell, locking bed cover to keep my stuff in and I got the crew cab so my family can all fit in it if we need to go somewhere. I don't expect to ever go off-road with it. I get much better mileage than I did with my old truck (A 2003 Chevy Avalanche inherited from my Grandpa. In fact, the payments plus what I spend on gas are less than just the gas bill for going to work in the old truck. I made money by trading it in.)

I travel the state of Florida and a little bit into GA for work and it's been great so far.

I do like the looks of the EV trucks I've seen so far (Purported to be Tesla but who knows?) I think they look pretty cool but Florida is a looooong state and I can't afford to get 300 miles into a 500 mile road trip and have to stop to charge for 9 hours.

[MineralMan]

36. How about that $50k price tag?

I'll bet your Colorado didn't cost that much...

[OriginalGeek]

38. not by a long shot lol

In fact, if I hadn't wanted quite so many amenities, I coulda bought 2 Colorados for that much.

[rawtribe]

52. You would use supercharger

network on a road trip. Charge up in 20-40 minutes.

https://supercharge.info/map

[OriginalGeek]

53. Well that is certainly better

not sold completely yet though

[tinrobot]

19. It's kind of a no-brainer for contractors

They'd save a lot on fuel and maintenance. Good torque for towing. Usually, they drive locally, so recharging for long distances isn't much of a concern. The big batteries in EVs can also replace generators at the site. They also think in terms of lifetime vehicle costs rather than just sticker price.

For the rest of the population, I also think electric trucks will create a shift in consciousness. Right now, EVs are viewed as wimpy vehicles for liberals. A good electric truck would obliterate that misconception.

[MineralMan]

24. Contractors often put lots and lots of miles on their pickups every day.

You have to go where the work is. What you think of as local may well not be local at all. In areas like the Twin Cities, here in Minnesota, a guy could easily travel farther than the range of such a vehicle going to and from the job. Will there be a charging station at the worksite? Unlikely.

So, will the Tesla Pickup EV have 120v outlets? Are they going to come with a 1500 Watt inverter so the contractor can plug in tools? Some ICE powered ones have those, along with a second battery to operate them. Most contractors I know have to budget closely to buy a new pickup. A $50,000 entry price point might cause some concern. You can buy a work truck for $30k, even new. Most subcontractors don't buy new trucks, though. They can't afford that kind of front-end expense.

[tinrobot]

73. After the reveal, I think the point is moot. This is not a vehicle for contractors.

[OAITW r.2.0]

31. This shouldn't be overlooked.

"The big batteries in EVs can also replace generators at the site."

When I built my home in Central Maine, I leased a truck and bought a generator in advance of getting site power. I am now thinking of going solar/solar with battery powerwall as I have excellent orientation and elevation to take advantage of this. An EV truck would make a lot of sense in this scenario.

[Alsteen]

3. Flop...

The truck is uglier than an edsel. No self respecting cowboy would be caught dead near that thing. And lets try putting a full load of hay on the bed and see how far it gets.

[blugbox]

6. The article states in the first paragraph...

That we don't know how it looks yet... so I don't know where you are basing your opinion from.

And absolutely try that test. Electric motors have UNREAL amounts of instant torque, plenty for easily hauling loads or towing.

Look up videos of Tesla Model X towing away big diesel trucks parked in charging stations.

If you are talking purely about mileage while hauling... yeah that won't get you as far as a tank of gas quite yet. But you gotta start somewhere. Labeling it a flop before the reveal seems to indicate a bias against Tesla or Musk

[coti]

13. Yeah, seems like a lot of folks don't realize the incredible power- and especially the instant

torque- of the electric motors we're seeing in cars. You'd think they would notice how all the EV's are pulling away from them so quickly at stoplights....

[coti]

9. The pictures they've been showing on these articles have been speculative,

not genuine releases. In our clickbait society they don't bother mentioning that it's not an ACTUAL picture of the truck.

[Demsrule86]

4. There is no market for that Truck...and Tesla pretty much makes shit.

[blugbox]

7. Farm trucks

That don't need to travel extreme distances, but that are used to haul loads around a ranch or farm property...

That alone is an entire market for this vehicle.

[coti]

11. Yeah, neither of those statements are at all true nt

[Sewa]

58. Careful you'll trigger the Musk cult

They believe everything that comes out of Elon’s lying mouth

[Roland99]

5. Ford's E-Mach is easily a predecessor to an E-F150

[MineralMan]

26. Ford is already planning to start selling an F-150 EV.

It will probably be a 2021 model that looks something like this:

https://www.motor1.com/news/368920/ford-f-150-electric-2021/

[Roland99]

27. Can you imagine how much lower the center of gravity will be?

that thing will handle so much better, eh?

[MineralMan]

37. Haven't thought about that very much.

Batteries are heavy, though. They take up some space, too. Besides, I don't like short pickup beds like that one anyhow. No room.

[Roland99]

42. Yeah...but the torque and power can overcome that, along w/other weight-saving measures

and truck beds overall are shorter...not like 70s/early 80s when they were longer...can't even really fit a loveseat in truck bed anymore!

[MineralMan]

45. That depends on the individual pickup.

Those four-door crew cab things have short beds. But, you can still buy a pickup with an 8-foot bed, if you want, or a 6' bed if you want an extended cab without a separate back door.

If I couldn't get something like a loveseat (or a piano) in my pickup, I'd sell it and get one that would haul those. I think I've moved half a dozen pianos in my life. I hate doing it, but I can do it. Right now, though, I don't know anybody I'd trust to help me load and unload one, so I'll have to say no if someone wants a piano moved. Two guys can do it, but both guys have to know what they're doing or be able to take directions really, really well.

[Roland99]

47. Gotcha...

2-door pickups aren't as common anymore...more of a status thing I guess than a functional thing?

Personally, I want like a '75 F150 in decent shape to use when I need to move/haul something

[MineralMan]

50. That 75 F-150 is becoming a collector car.

You'd be better off with a mid 1990s one. For about $2500, you can find one that runs fine. Low annual tab fees, too. Or, consider a Ford Ranger, like mine. Even with the 4-cylinder and manual transmission, it'll do just about anything, and is really cheap to own and operate.

[Roland99]

51. Just thinking of something pre-computers.

[MineralMan]

54. Yeah, so are a lot of other people, which is driving

up the cost of older trucks. By the time they are mechanically in good shape and restored in the looks department, quite a bit gets spent. I wanted to do that, too, but prices for decent trucks in the pre-computer years were starting at around $10k and up. the older, the more they cost. 60s pickups are going for nearly $20k for a decent example. Restoration costs are why.

Mid 90s trucks are just old trucks. But, if a particular one is running well now, it's likely to keep doing so for quite some time, so if you're not going to put a lot of miles on it, you can count on it working about the way it does when you bought it. On mine, the only thing I'm not sure about is the battery. I figure there's about a 50% chance I'll have to drop a new $100 battery in it this winter. Minnesota is hard on batteries. I may just put a new battery in it, just on principle.

Otherwise, it's running fine, driving fine, and generally in good order. Some owner in the last 5000 miles or so put new brakes on it, and a new exhaust system. I bought four new tires for it right after I got it. It doesn't seem to be burning oil, and starts almost instantly, since it has fuel injection. Carbureted trucks are not so easy to start in the winter, unfortunately.

If it was a daily driver, I'd have spent more and gotten a later model. But it's a beater truck for me, so...

[Initech]

43. Rivian looks like it will beat Ford and Tesla:

That truck is light years ahead in terms of design. I also like the minimalist design of the Bollinger B1 but that price though, damn.

[scrabblequeen40]

8. The Tesla truck is not aimed at blue collar folk

who actually haul stuff off a ranch. It's aimed at wannabes who play cowboy on weekends, drawn to the macho trappings a big truck conveys. Willing to bet that 80% of truck buyers never haul anything. So... yeah.

Tesla is selling cultural capital, not farm equipment. LOL.

[coti]

12. So, just like most pickups today

Just more powerful, and better for the environment.

[scrabblequeen40]

55. Yup. The demographic for trucks

isn't going to change. I live in an exurbs, borderline rural, and I can count on one finger the number of times I've seen a pick-up truck actaully "hauling" stuff around. Mostly, the bed is empty and the driver is a dude who wants to look like a boss.

[Wellstone ruled]

10. Ford Motor will be

the major winner in this space. They have been working with UPS and Coca Cola on hybrid and self Charging Delivery Trucks for quite some time.

[kysrsoze]

56. Likely so. They just introduced the Mustang Mach-E and partnered with Rivian on the platform

IIRC, Ford invested $500M in Rivian, under a platform sharing agreement. I

wouldn't count Tesla out though - they don't mess around with their offerings. Much of what they've built into their cars so far is brilliant and they've successfully thrown out the playbook of what a car should be. While other companies copy each other, they have gone off and made some fantastic, ingenious offerings.

[Wellstone ruled]

57. Had the opertunity to

test one of these Hybrid Trucks, in a Curbside Step Van version,in the Spring of 2003. When operating in the Battery mode,it scared the crap out of pedestrians for the most part,but one could turn the Radio Volume down.

Downside was Battery life,especially on cold days and load weight. Remember,this was fifteen years ago. Talk to a Coca Cola Cold Bottle Sales Driver here in Vegas this past summer,he was using the latest version of a all Electric during our July heat,this one was a Ford Chassis on a custom Body which caught my eye right away,and had to stop and ask questions. Main gripe was lack of battery life due to use of A/C. But like me,you really have to pay attention to Pedestrians when your in and around Business's.

[Aristus]

15. Probably delving into stereotypes here, but doesn't everything an EV has to offer

go against everything pickup owners love about their trucks? The noise, the dirt, the negative effect on the environment that drives we latte-sipping, snowflake liberals crazy?

How smart is it to target an EV at the 'rolling coal' crowd?

[coti]

17. That's why you emphasize the increased power and instant torque.

What truck owner wants to get beaten on power?

And there's no reason an EV can't get dirty. Musk is talking about selling these things in the $50K+ range, about the same range as a lot of the more powerful, well-equipped diesels out there.

[Aristus]

18. Yeah, but won't being environmentally aware get them kicked out of every Republican summer

camp in the country?

[MineralMan]

20. Well, the coal rollers are a very tiny subset of pickup owners.

Over my life of driving, I've owned about a dozen pickups at one time or another. I just bought one again, because we're doing a bunch of cleanup and other chores around our home. My new pickup is 23 years old and I have less than $1500 in it. You'd be surprised how many pickup owners there are out there like me.

A lot of others buy pickups to pull boats and RVs. Typically, they use the truck the rest of the time like they'd use any other vehicle. But, when they do use it as a workhorse, it's generally going to be traveling way beyond the range of an EV and probably to a place where there's no charging station.

Then, there are people who use pickups in their businesses. A lot of those pickups are base trim models, rather than ones with lots of options and big engines, etc. At an estimated starting cost of $50k, the Tesla pickup's not going to be of much interest. Besides, in many areas, a days work could easily exceed the driving range.

So, who will buy a pickup EV? I'm not sure, really. People who want an EV that can haul bags of yard waste, perhaps, and who aren't going to use it for long trips or for towing their RV or boat on a vacation, maybe. I don't know. Maybe some people who buy 4-door pickups that can seat 5, and just like the idea of a pickup EV to haul a piece of furniture or some trash. Maybe those people, if they have enough disposable income to buy a $50,000 pickup for those purposes.

Me? I have mine as a second vehicle. I use it as needed, either when the other car is gone or if I need to haul some stuff somewhere. My $1500 pickup will do that just fine. If it's typical of my pickup ownership, I'll keep it a couple of years and sell it for what I paid for it to someone else who needs a pickup for a while. I don't think the Tesla's for me.

[House of Roberts]

32. Aye. I bought my 1994 Ford Ranger in 2016, for $1900.

It's my daily driver, goes 5 miles to work and five back. Kroger is on the route home, so I rarely go outside my normal corridor.

It would take a lot of incentive to make me add the expense of an electric for the little driving I do now.

[MineralMan]

39. Yup. Probably everyone homeowner needs a pickup, really.

Mine's not my daily driver. My wife and I have a 2020 KIA Soul. Whoever needs a car drives that. If it's not in the driveway, then the Ranger is available. Otherwise, it sits there, waiting for me to load it up and haul some more crap away from the house or go haul something to the house.

My wife did a check-out drive in the Ranger this past weekend. She's an experience manual transmission user. She reported, "OK, I can drive that, but I like the Soul better."

We both work at home, so we have no commutes.

[marlakay]

44. We bought a truck to tow our trailer

If its strong enough for that people will buy it. My other car is a Prius and we drive that most of the time.

[MineralMan]

46. Then wait for a hybrid pickup. Really.

[marlakay]

49. Lol we will have what we bought for years

Many years, retired with watching money tightly.

[scrabblequeen40]

60. if you don't buy new trucks

... is it fair to apply your experience of buying old trucks to people who are in the market for a new truck? Especially, since your point of view rests heavily on your value. A new e truck versus an old truck you buy at $1500 is not apples to apples if you focus on cost alone.

If you WERE in the market for a new truck, which you are not and have not been in your truck-owning history, how might buying a NEW electric truck be more/less compellig than buying a NEW gasoline truck?

[MineralMan]

62. I wouldn't buy an EV pickup.

Not even interested. It would make no sense for me. I wouldn't buy any new truck.

[scrabblequeen40]

61. not for you

For your purposes, buying a new GMC Sierra, priced just a hair under $50K, doesn't make any sense either. Do you also think the GMC Sierra is at risk for the same reasons?

[MineralMan]

63. I would never spend $50k on anything with wheels.

Nope.

[GulfCoast66]

59. Yep. Your delving into stereotyping.

The wife drives a Toyota Tundra.

We pull a 4500lb boat regularly. Often for several hundred miles. No small car will do that.

Plus routinely carrying loads of everything from pants to furniture.

When an electric truck can fulfill our needs I would happily consider one. Just don’t see that happening anytime soon. Pulling a trailer doubles your energy needs.

[pstokely]

70. a lot of cars use fake engine noise

https://www.motor1.com/news/383220/ford-mustang-mach-e-fake-noise/

[tinrobot]

22. I just hope Tesla doesn't over-design the thing

A good truck is so practical, it's kind of boring. Elon is anything but boring.

We may have to wait for Rivian or Ford/GM to come out with their vehicles before EV Trucks really catch fire.

[MineralMan]

28. Never say "catch fire" when you're talking about EVs.

Just saying...

[tinrobot]

72. Welp... he over designed the thing

[msongs]

29. makes sense to target the best selling vehicles category. nt

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

30. Simone Giertz got tired of waiting and made her own "Truckla."

[aikoaiko]

40. I'm interested

very

[Initech]

41. I'd love to get a truck but the cost of gas and maintenance - no way.

I'd be interested to see how the Tesla truck looks in person even though the pictures aren't flattering. I'm much more interested in the offerings from Rivian and Bollinger but there's no way I could afford either one.

[MineralMan]

48. It depends how you use it.

The way I use my Ford Ranger, I only put a couple of tanks of gas in it a year. Maintenance costs are minimal, since it only gets about 750 miles a year of driving.

[greyl]

64. Here 'tis

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Meet the Cybertruck, Tesla's Ford-Fighting Pickup

Elon Musk has revealed the latest Tesla model, promising hundreds of miles of range for about $50,000.

https://www.wired.com/story/electric-tesla-pickup-truck-announcement-specs-cost-photos

[coti]

65. Was pretty incredible, pure utility. Stainless steel frame on the outside.

Auto-adjusting air suspension. Literally drives itself. Starts at $40K. $70K version can go over FIVE HUNDRED MILES.

[greyl]

66. Yeah, contrast it with the Mach E, hear echoes of US auto makers in the 1980s.

Ford could have devised an enthralling, extended intro for a Ford Model E, but went with the dumb electric mustang. To say it's a Tesla fighter is now absurd, next to Cybertruck.

Then this:

Link to tweet

[Rstrstx]

67. Yeah, umm, look at it

Maybe it'll grow on people. I feel like everyone would be staring at me driving down the road, probably because they totally would be.

Aside from the looks the biggest surprise was the price, starting at 39,900! That's cheap enough that it will pay for itself in gas savings.

[eShirl]

71. halfway between Hummer and Delorean

[Sewa]

68. Ha-ha at live demo of truck

The shatterproof windshield shattered. Elon gasped “oh my god “. From Bloomberg News

[pstokely]

69. but will rednecks buy electric instead of a Chevy pickup built in Mexico?

but can they even afford a new super duty?

[Andy823]

74. Most people who buy trucks

for work, are not going to buy this, I wouldn't. This is the ugliest thing I have ever seen. I don't think Ford or GMC are going to have to worry about losing customers. Most trucks are bought by people who use them for work, this one just doesn't have what the majority of truck drives are looking for.