Rating Changes: Final North Carolina Map Boosts House Democrats

[RandySF]

On Monday, a panel of North Carolina judges signed off on a new congressional map drawn by the GOP legislature that effectively cedes Democrats two seats. Democrats had sued for even more opportunities but declined further appeals, finalizing the months-long saga. Candidate filing for the March 3 primary opened Monday and runs until December 20.

The new map effectively is all but certain to convert a 10-3 Republican delegation into an 8-5 Republican edge - a huge win for House Democrats and a pre-2020 insurance policy for Speaker Pelosi. The biggest losers on the GOP side: Reps. George Holding (NC-02) and Mark Walker (NC-06), whose Raleigh and Greensboro districts become safe Democratic seats.

Holding has strongly indicated he will stand down in 2020, though he could decide to seek a comeback in 2022 if the lines are more favorable in suburban Raleigh. The biggest question is what Walker will do: the Baptist pastor could either run against fellow GOP Rep. Ted Budd in the safely red 13th CD, primary Sen. Thom Tillis or forgo running in 2020 altogether.

This will be North Carolina's third different congressional map in four cycles, and there will be a fourth in 2022 after the Census, when the state is expected to pick up a 14th seat. All presidential election data for the new districts cited below is from Daily Kos Elections, a Democratic website respected by political aficionados of all stripes for its number-crunching.




https://cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/house/north-carolina-house/rating-changes-final-north-carolina-map-boosts-house-democrats

[calimary]

1. Good!

[OldBaldy1701E]

2. WAAHHHHH!

'Holding has strongly indicated he will stand down in 2020, though he could decide to seek a comeback in 2022 if the lines are more favorable in suburban Raleigh.'

I won't play unless I always win!

(pathetic)

[Pacifist Patriot]

3. Great news, but a bit bummed it didn't directly and severely impact Mark Meadows.

I have a special loathing for that guy.

[paleotn]

4. Asheville is growing, but is only so big....

It wasn't big enough to swing McHenry's district as it was muted by Hickory and the Charlotte ex burbs. Now its united with the rest of Buncombe and the limited spill over into the surrounding counties (Henderson for instance), but that's still not enough to swing what amounts to a christo-fascist, fucking nightmare. I use to live in the Meadow's bumfuckistan, that's once again united with Asheville in the new 11th. I did a Matthew 10:14 on them and shook the dust off my feet, never to return. Those people are out of their fucking minds. My county went for IQ45 by nearly 80% of votes cast in '16 A complete basket case. When an opportunity to leave came around in '18, I grabbed it, and didn't look back.

[paleotn]

5. A good step in the right direction.

But still mutes the power of Winston to Raleigh imho. And poor Boone is still stuck in that Foxx nightmare.

[mnhtnbb]

6. Before the Republicans gerrymandered NC

as a result of the 2010 midterms, NC had a 7 Dem 6 Repub allocation of House seats.

This is better than 10 Repub 3 Dem, but still isn't close to what it should be given the party registrations in the state.

Current voter registrations:

Dem 2,499,924

Repub 2,044,155

Unaffiliated 2,230,399


I think the huge number of Unaffiliated voter registrations may be affected by the number of military personnel/bases in the state. Then there are the disaffected folks who may vote one party consistently, but don't want to be identified one way or the other. I'm one of them.

[Timmygoat]

7. Good news

I hope we can get rid of the faux christian Mark Walker, who will never speak a word against Trump, all he is interested in is telling his constituents how great he is and sending out a weekly newsletter showing him shaking hands with either a veteran, an old person etc.
He is a real phony!

[struggle4progress]

8. Yeah, well, here in NC more vote D than vote R so the map's still badly gerrymandered

[Pacifist Patriot]

9. It does feel like baby steps. Very tentative ones.