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(2,398 posts)
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 02:14 PM Dec 2019

I answered a post yesterday with this. 2 answers that didn't speak to the question...

I'd like to post as an OP and see if anybody can comment.

trump lost the popular vote by 3 million.
trump won the electoral clusterfuck by a grand total of 77,000 votes in 3 key states. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
His approval in those states... and virtually every other state... has dropped.

Take a look... https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Yes, I know about voter suppression, gerrymandering, and I believe we've seen vote-stealing. We'll see those things in 2020.

But I can't believe that trump's low approval rate and high disapproval rate leads anywhere but a loss.

Show me how I'm wrong.

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(25,831 posts)
1. What will show whether you're right or wrong
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 03:40 PM
Dec 2019

will be the actual vote on election day next year.

I recall all too well how in 2003 and 2004 there were so very many reports of people who'd voted for Bush in 2000 who were saying they were not about to vote for him again. So it was obvious to the most casual observer that Bush would lose in 2004. Remind me how that turned out?


(2,398 posts)
3. The polls were actually pretty close in 2016.
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 04:35 PM
Dec 2019

Clinton was supposed to win by 3.1%.... she won by 2.1%

Those are not "...so many reports...". Those are actual numbers.

And if you look at the interactive chart I posted, trump is down in the key states.

I'm NOT saying to get overconfident... just that I don't see the numbers that show a trump victory.



(8,231 posts)
11. Keep your eye on how many undecideds there are. In 2016 I was noticing a lot of undecideds in the
Sat Dec 14, 2019, 08:16 AM
Dec 2019

polls and I wondered who those people were going to break for. I don't understand the statement the polls were wrong in 2016...I think they were pretty accurate and within the margins of error.


(7,534 posts)
6. Riddle me this...how could Trump's support go down but still pull out a victory?
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 05:55 PM
Dec 2019

You don't need to win the vote...you only need to win the counting.


(4,461 posts)
7. It's electoral college math. A Dem could, theoretically...
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 05:58 PM
Dec 2019

... win by 30m or so in the popular vote and still lose the electoral college if the states line up for trump.


(16,169 posts)
9. One scenario. Election gets hacked and "counter-hacked"..refuses to leave office
Sat Dec 14, 2019, 08:06 AM
Dec 2019

An obvious “can’t be real result” in one or two states, and throw the country into chaos.
Like what happened in a Pennsylvania election (which totaled 156 to 55,000 but backup paper shows basically a tie), except in favor of the democrat. Republicans declare the election fraudulent.

Putin’s wet dream.

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