Why Trump's path to reelection is totally plausible

[Gothmog]

I strongly disagree with the concept that the Democratic Party can nominate a weak candidate and have no problem beating trump. Most POTUS are re-elected unless there is an downturn in the economy. trump can easily be re-elected

Link to tweet

How after everything — abysmal polls, the 2018 midterm debacle, this week’s impeachment — is a second term even a possibility? The belief that the usual rules of politics simply do not apply to this president — whether because of political dark arts or some kind of cosmic destiny — is one of the only things that unites Trump loathers and Trump loyalists.

But there is no need to look for mystical explanations. There is a path to reelection for a president who never cracks 50 percent approval in polls that is entirely plausible. It's not because the normal dynamics of politics do not apply to Trump, but because they do.....

Once again, Trump’s strategy is not about breaking precedent so much as exploiting advantages that have worked often for incumbent presidents. Incumbents usually lose when the economy is weak or they face ideological opposition from within their party — neither of which is true for him.

Time and money not spent fighting for the nomination is a big advantage — and it may not matter much that this advantage is offset by bleak national polls. The Trump team says in background interviews that it is making targeted efforts in 17 states, but a much smaller number will get the lion’s share of attention....

In sum, the Trump team can give cogent answers to the question — How will Trump win? — and they are faking it well (as skilled operatives usually do) if they don’t actually believe what they are saying. But there are too many imponderable assumptions embedded in those answers for anyone but Trump partisans to embrace them as fully credible.

Earlier, I was hopeful that trump would kill the Obama recovery but it appears that trump may have a decent economy to run on. We cannot assume that trump can be easily beaten or that the Democratic Party can nominate anyone and expect to win in 2020.

[exboyfil]

1. Who believes that it is a slam dunk

I personally think, that unless something drastically changes, he will win in 2020. Remember close enough to steal. If certain candidates are nominated, you are going to tell the farmers and factory workers in Wisconsin that they have to pay for the education of the students at UWisconsin Madison. That is not going to go over well .

Also Warren plans to add another $150B/yr spending to SS. This is in addition to the $150B/yr. draw down from the Trust Fund, and the $1T/yr. deficit. Then free college. Then M4A and whatever it will cost.

[Gothmog]

3. Some of the supporters of the far left candidates

There are some who believe that trump is so weak that we can nominate anyone and win in 2020. I do not accept that position and believe that we need to nominate the strongest possible general election candidate

[Cuthbert Allgood]

28. I don't think that's a fair assessment at all.

Actually, I feel there are a lot of supporters of the centrist candidates that make the argument that their candidate is the only one that can beat Trump. We have to mobilize people to want to vote. Not the people that usually vote, but those that don't normally. If we have a high turnout, we win. That means we have to get a person whose policies resonate with a lot of people. Not the "well, he's not Trump" position. That won't motivate anyone to come out and vote.

But, hey, if it makes you happy to knock the far left of the party, have at it I guess. It always shocks me that the centrist part of the party just dunks on the progressives all the time and then puts on a shocked face when the progressives don't just eat their shit sandwich and do what those that have been dunking on them forever want them to do.

[Gothmog]

34. I really think that a far left candidate would help trump win and kill downballot candidates

I keep hearing about sanders promising a voter revolution but so far that revolution has not materialized. I am not sure how a far left candidate will mobilize more voters. There are fare more moderate and less liberal voters in the party compared to very liberal voters

Link to tweet

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[Cuthbert Allgood]

35. The biggest voting block right now is Gen X and younger. Millennials and Gen Z are a HUGE block.

If we get them out, and they trend much more liberal than Boomers and older, we win. I know they aren't a reliable block, but that's what we need to focus on. And we need to get them voting Dem now so that they stay with us.

[Gothmog]

2. Washington Post-Opinion: If the economy keeps its momentum, 2020 will be Trump's to lose

If trump does not destroy the Obama recovery, then 2020 will be a very close election. I reject the concept that we can afford to nominate a weak/far left nominee. trump will beat a far left candidate easily if the economy remains strong

Link to tweet

One wonders whether, at some point, the economic boom will be so huge that it will drive opinions on its own. Once Democrats settle on a nominee, voters will have to make a choice: Do they stick with the guy they’ve got, warts and all, who has contributed to such good times? Or are they willing to take the risk that the next president, even if he or she is a better person, will screw things up with a new agenda?

One election model from Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University, suggests the economy will be the winning factor. His “time for change” model has a solid track record in predicting the outcome and direction of presidential races, and data he published last month show that, so long as the economy continues to grow at a 2 percent clip, Trump should be a favorite for reelection even if his job approval rating is as poor as it is now.

Indeed, it’s even better than that for Trump. The model calculates an average gain of 2.5 electoral votes for every one-point Trump shaves off of his net job disapproval. According to the model, even if gross domestic product growth slumps to 1 percent, Trump could win the minimum 270 electoral votes he needs for reelection by lowering his net job disapproval rating to 7 percent. Right now, that number is around 10 percent.

Media attention is focused on the Mueller report and other congressional investigations. But if the economy keeps its momentum, even that or Trump’s failure to trumpet his success might not prevent him from winning a second term.

[Fiendish Thingy]

26. This is from May

Take a look at Rachel Bitcofer's model (she correctly predicted the magnitude of the Blue Wave in 2018)

If we nominate a candidate who inspires massive turnout, Trump will lose.

Just like Hillary in 2016, Biden, although well qualified, is vulnerable. The GOP has gone all in on smearing him through the Ukraine nonsense, and their social media efforts could suppress the vote just like it did in 2016- it only took 77,000 votes in the Rust Belt to give Trump the White House.

The Other top their candidates, although not polling as high Joe in some polls, don't have the same vulnerabilities as Biden, and all three would likely inspire massive turnout, especially among young voters. I don't think the same can be said for Biden.

[TrunKated]

4. is the economy really strong....

Most people I know are suffering and just barely making it. Some with two jobs.

[California_Republic]

5. Here's to hoping we have a plan that we don't " have to hope Trump crashes the economy "

[Chipper Chat]

6. Two words:

Electoral College.

[Freddie]

10. Yup

They’ll play the EC like a fiddle, just like before. He could lose by 5M + votes and still “win”. It’s sick.

[Chipper Chat]

20. I live in Indiana

It's sickening that the Orange blob STILL has so much support here. When I go to the barber shop I hear "he's doin alright" ,and "did you hear they finally found Hillary's missing emails" etc bullshit etc.
Look for trump to saturate Ohio, Wisconsin, michigan, and PA with weekly rally's from now until election day. We just have to work hard in those states to hopefully turn the tide. Indiana is a lost cause.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

29. So we need a better strategy than not going to WI at all before the election.

That might help.

[dalton99a]

7. It is foolish to assume anything about 2020 - when the other party is wholly owned and operated by

Vladimir Putin.

[Gothmog]

8. U.S. economy shakes free of recession fears in striking turnaround since August

Link to tweet

[louis-t]

9. If the economy takes a dump in the next 6 months,

dumpie will blame Dem attempts to impeach him. He has already started that lie. No win situation. He has an excuse for everything.

[edhopper]

11. of course he can

We must be very strategic about the States we must win.

He could lose by 5 million votes and still get the win.

[Downtown Hound]

12. Dubya had higher approval ratings than Trump

And the electorate was a lot different back then too. I'm not saying that Trump can't win reelection, he could. But he has a very tough road to climb. Generation X, Millennials, and Generation Z outvoted Boomers and Silents in 2018. These generations have a different set of concerns than previous ones did, such as global warming and gun control. The economy that is supposedly so great yet they can't even afford their rent is not going to be the deciding factor in their vote.

The bottom line is this: incumbent presidents tend to get in vote percentages almost exactly what their approval ratings are. That gives Trump a floor of about 40% to a high of about 46%. Those are very tough numbers to win reelection with.

[Bettie]

13. Thanks for not forgetting the existence

of GenX!

Yeah, he could "win" again, but not if we turn out.

[doc03]

14. He could win with 46% of the popular vote, that's about what he got the

last time isn't it? Democrats can't win unless they turn PA, MI and WI popular vote means nothing.

[Downtown Hound]

16. I never said he couldn't win.

But 46% would be the absolute highest he will likely get. Odd are it will be slightly lower than that. But this time around there are going to be lots more Democratic voters and a lot less third party votes., and a lot fewer people sitting it out. 2020 isn't going to be like 2016.

[doc03]

21. I hope so nt

[UniteFightBack]

15. I don't think he'll 'easily' win...even with the cheating. His numbers are lower than Carter and

Bush Sr. and they both lost. He already won by the slimmest of margins and c'mon he hasn't grown his debased base.

I'm confident he's done....one way or another.

[sweetloukillbot]

33. They both had 3rd party candidates siphoning off votes.

If there's a third party candidate this time, just like last, they won't be siphoning from Trump.

[Desert grandma]

17. As long as the economy stays good he will be reelected.

That's what our financial adviser told us. He said that according to The Market Insider, last September, the short term lending rate spiked from 2 % to 10%. The rate indicates how expensive it is for banks to access quick capital. This was a sign of volatility in the lending market according to the article. In order to prop up the system, the federal reserve (Trumps minions) has been pumping billions into the system to calm money markets. He also said that this is not sustainable and we will probably see a recession when the injections of liquidity can no longer stabilize the market. His opinion was that the Federal Reserve will continue to do this through the election in November if they can. After that, he continued, we will reap the consequences of this foolish financial move.

Of course this is all speculation, but I wanted to share what unbiased financial managers think about the economy and 45's chances in 2020. I sincerely hope they are wrong.

[Joe941]

18. I'm not buying it. We should easily defeat him.

[Gothmog]

25. President Trump's Re-Election Odds Actually IMPROVED After Being Impeached

trump is favored by the betting markets to be re-elected https://www.thelines.com/trump-election-odds-2020-impeachment/

On Wednesday, the United States House of Representatives approved articles of impeachment on President Donald Trump.

Trump became only the third sitting US president to be impeached, joining Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton.

The President was impeached on two articles: abuse of power (230-197 “yes” vote) and obstruction (229-198 “yes” vote). The articles revolve around his alleged pressuring of Ukraine to damage a potential political rival (Joe Biden). As expected, the vote fell almost entirely along party lines.

Amazingly, like most things with Trump, the negative news did not have a negative impact on his polling data. In fact, President Trump’s 2020 election odds actually improved after being impeached. Betting markets moved his re-election odds from around even-money (+100) to -125.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

30. I've heard that before.

Like 4 years ago. Apparently we need a different strategy than the last time we were going to easily defeat him.

[Joe941]

32. Simply make sure Russia doesnt change the votes and we are fine, agreed?

[Proud Liberal Dem]

19. Another viewpoint

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212788885

[Gothmog]

22. I do not want a recession but a slowdown in red states could help

[Proud Liberal Dem]

23. I don't want one either

I just hate the thought that people would re-elect Trump solely because of the economy and damn everything else. I know that Presidents typically get the credit or the blame for the economy but I'm not sure exactly why we can't have a good economy AND a much better President. I'm not entirely sure what Trump has done for the economy other than not f**k up the good economy Obama left with worse than he has in some respects. Hopefully, the Democrats can thread the needle between not being seen as "talking down" the economy and making the case that a Democratic President would still be better for the economy, but more importantly that we deserve a better quality President than Trump- and I can't see why that would be a hard one to make by anybody still in the running.

[Gothmog]

24. Presidential Race Remains a Toss Up

The only thing that matters is defeating trump and if we go too far left, then trump will win. I reject the concept that trump is so weak that we can nominate any candidate and still beat trump. According to Larry Sabato, the 2020 race is a toss up https://politicalwire.com/2019/12/19/presidential-race-remains-a-toss-up/

“Our initial ratings had 248 electoral votes at least leaning to the Republican nominee (Trump, almost certainly), 244 electoral votes at least leaning to the Democratic nominee, and 46 Toss-ups. Since then, we’ve made only one significant change, pushing Hillary Clinton’s most narrow 2016 victory, New Hampshire, from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, leaving a 248-248 split with just 42 electoral votes’ worth of Toss Ups (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s Second Congressional District).”

“The 2020 race still looks like a 50-50 proposition to us.”

The consensus Electoral Vote Map is a bit more fluid with Democrats at 238 electoral votes, Republicans at 198 and Toss Ups at 108.

[KentuckyWoman]

27. I still think he stays in office and gets re-elected*

First - 20-30% of America is off the rails.
Second - gerrymandering is real
Third - Citizens United
Fourth - Vlad (Propaganda and vote hacking)
Fifth - The media would love 4 more years of ratings.
Sixth - The 1% loves this shit show so we pay attention to the new shiny thing instead of our futures being stolen.

Ad nauseum.


If America votes him out I'll be shocked. But then, I never thought it would get this far either.

[tman]

31. If a recession if the only hope...

Democrats are in big, big trouble.


I personally believe Biden is the only one who can win where it matters.