Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak Update Link

[bucolic_frolic]

Daily updates, usually late afternoon US time. Links for countries, rates, recoveries, incubation information.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Coronavirus Cases:
31,439
of which 4,824 (15%)
in critical condition
Deaths:
638

[Coventina]

1. Get ready to be criticized for fear-mongering.

And for the stats to be dismissed as not reality.
(most people are having mild cases at home and are JUST FINE!)

[Ghost Dog]

2. Yes. Observe that it took Dr. Li Wenliang four weeks

from initial mild symptoms, which worsened in hospital, to die. He only tested positive in the final week. And he was asymptomatic during two weeks prior.

All these thousands of daily new confirmed cases are just that: new. Where will the numbers be by the end of the month?

[Coventina]

4. Good question. And nobody knows.

I don't trust the Chinese gov't any further than I can throw them (which is not at all).

This is looking ever more serious, and I'm pretty sick of people saying it's no big deal and the flu is worse.

[Ms. Toad]

14. If it doesn't slow -

Usingthe most conservative growth rate: 31439 x 1.14^23 = 640,147 infected; 12,991 dead

(That's using a 1.14 daily growth rate - the lowest over the past 8 days or so. Most days the growth rate has been closer to 1.2)

[The_jackalope]

16. A strong Excel curve fit to the current data series (R-squared of 0.9996)

gives a projection of ~180,000 at the end of the month. But that depends on the actual curve being the one Excel fits to the data. If the exponent in the equation turns out to be just a bit higher or lower, all bets are off. It's still very early days, with a pretty fragile dataset.

[Ms. Toad]

19. That's a fancier calculations than I'm doing -

But you're right about being just a little bit off making a huge difference - and because the release of data is coming at different times every day (and the big jump comes with the release of the overnight China data (sometime between 5 and 9, sometimes with a second substantial release, it is hard to be precise.

180,000 seems low to me - but I'm working on not much sleep and could easily have miscounted days.

What is the source of your dataset? The two that I've been following have pretty dramatically different numbers on several days/times of day.

[The_jackalope]

22. I use worldometers

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I started with the Johns Hopkins site, but I find worldometers much easier to navigate. The numbers on the two sites are just different enough to keep me from getting religious about any particular dataset.

I saw that little barkfest you got into, and I agree - spanker-dude had little understanding of exponential functions. Everybody, not just epidemiologists and demographers, needs to watch Dr. Albert Bartlett's YouTube videos on understanding the exponential function. Most people don't, and that lets them think that things are OK when they are about to be seriously not OK.

[Ms. Toad]

25. I've been mostly using the Johns Hopkins site -

But I've also looked at worldometers for comparison.

The growth factor (the critcal one to see how fast this critter is exploding) is lower - especially on the final day in the seris. For Feb 5, for example, I've still got over 1 (1.19); the worldometers has .95. (The 6th is too soon to tell where it will end up.)

[Dan]

76. Thanks for the link.

I was wondering if the number of deaths has more to do with the quality of health care in certain regions of China???

I am not attacking China’s state health care, just wondering.

[Ms. Toad]

79. So I went off to play with Excel -

I hadn't played with that feature before - nice. I'll have to keep playing with it.

(I use Excel for more mundane things like running very complex gradebooks.)

[Nature Man]

78. it's the same instinct that fuels climate change denial:

reactionary.

You called it correctly!

[Croney]

3. Yes, this is the link I have posted a few times, and

I check it almost as often as I check DU! My daughter and her family have a Singapore trip in 7 days. Still deciding whether or not to go.

[bucolic_frolic]

7. That's a tough decision

I hadn't seen this link before, didn't mean to seem like I copied your post, I saw it on an investing video everyone watching it for clues to what's happening daily.

[Croney]

10. I'm glad you posted it! Yes, a tough decision, with $6000 at stake.

The trip insurance won't kick in unless there's a US travel advisory on Singapore.

[StarryNite]

66. That's a lot of money at stake.

[Lefta Dissenter]

54. I don't envy you your concern.

I’m worried enough about my daughter and son-in-law booked to go to Japan in March, and my own trip there in April.

Perhaps calling your legislators and encouraging them to push for a State Department warning (red level) for the entire region could help with that decision (and hopefully a refund or voucher).

Imagine how this will impact the Olympics in Japan this summer.

[Croney]

55. I understand your concern about Japan.

It's hard not knowing what lies ahead. Good luck!

[Lefta Dissenter]

80. Croney

I’ve been thinking about you. What did your daughter and family decide about their trip?

Edited to add: You may have said something elsewhere, but if so, I haven’t seen it.

[Croney]

81. Thanks for thinking of me, here's a heart!

They cancelled the trip and lost the money. Well, not all of it. They lost $1,000 and now have a $5,000 credit that has to be used by August, but it will cost $200 a person for changes (so another $1,000). I'm not sure I have it straight, it's confusing.

So, they might go to Singapore in the summer, depending on the virus of course. Our Singapore daughter says she stands in the grocery lines for hours.

It could be worse -- they could be stuck on a cruise ship.

[Lefta Dissenter]

82. ❤️ Awwww, thank you!

And back atcha! ❤️

I’m glad they canceled, and I’m sure you’re relieved, too. Lots of hugs and positive thoughts for your Singapore daughter. I’m sure it’s so stressful.

I called American Airlines earlier this evening, inquiring about our flight to Japan, which is on American and JAL. The woman said that we can make a change with no change fee, using the value of our tickets within a year of purchase, which was November 15th. And we don’t need to decide until the last minute. Hopefully things will have settled down by then...

This is so scary for so many people - I really hope they get this under control SOON.

[Croney]

83. Thank you! American Airlines is treating you well, it seems.

I'm so glad!

[Lefta Dissenter]

84. Thanks, Croney!

I figured she’d look at the fare we paid and tell us we were s.o.l., since we booked the cheap seats. We’ll still keep fingers crossed that it will somehow, magically be resolved before then so we can take our trip. I’ve been to Japan twice in October, but never in spring, so I was looking forward to it. Well, that and my granddaughter! Looking forward to seeing her, too! 🥰

[dewsgirl]

5. Did you see my post about 41 new cases on the Diamond Princess?

They have only tested 273, they still have 3400 more on the ship to test.😳

[Coventina]

6. Judging by the incubation period and the contagion factor, EVERYONE on that ship

has been exposed and most of them will get sick.

ETA: what a nightmare!

[dewsgirl]

8. Horrifying.😳

[Coventina]

9. The idea of a cruise never has appealed to me. I doubt now it ever will!

[Croney]

11. So it's not just me? I have relatives who love cruises.

Absolutely nothing about them appeals to me.

[Coventina]

12. Agreed. All I hear about is how people over-indulge and come back heavier.

And that's supposed to be the positive side!

Plus, I'm a bit claustrophobic, so the tiny cabins don't appeal at all.
I don't like wearing a bathing suit in public, so the pools / sunbathing don't appeal either.

I just don't get it.

[Delphinus]

50. I have way

too much respect (some might say fear) of the vastness of the oceans.

[Skittles]

45. I find the idea absolutely repugnant

being around that many people - YUCK

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

34. I find it fascinating that those who are so down on cruising have never taken one.

Kind of like: I've never eaten eggplant and I'm sure it's terrible.

So okay, for all of us there are things we are interested in trying, and other's we're not at all interested in trying.

I've taken one cruise so far and I just loved it. I'm taking another one next month and I can hardly wait.

Oh, and there really are differences between cruise lines. The ginormous mega ships, and the cruises that cater to those who want to hard party, are a different world from smaller ships and those that cater to more sensible and laid-back cruisers.

Just saying.

[Coventina]

47. That is a ridiculous comparison. Cruises and their features are advertised heavily to the public.

Even though I've never been on one, I know exactly how the ships look, their features, entertainments, etc.

I've even investigated a few more deeply because their theme had some appeal to me: Disney, Star Trek, etc.

All my research led to "Ugh, no thanks."

Of course, different stokes for different folks and all that.

Have fun on your cruise.

Stay healthy.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

57. I'm guessing they advertise on TV?

I don't believe I have ever seen a cruise advert myself. However, I haven't had a TV in over a decade, which may well be a reason. Plus, I used to live in Kansas, where I had TV. Now I'm in New Mexico without one. So I wonder if they advertise more heavily in markets in or near ports. Which I would suspect is the case. Unless you live, say, in Duluth and you can assure me you see tons of ads for cruise lines and cruises to the Caribbean or Mexico. I am pointing out that without a TV I miss a lot.

Chances are the ads you see are for the huge mega ships, not the smaller ones. As for themes, my first cruise was a Wine Maker's Cruise. The group was assembled by a travel agency near me, and involved about 30 people, some of whom were wine makers. Others, like me, simply like to drink the stuff. We had several special events for our group, but most of the time were on our own as most people are on board. It was a nice mix for me.

In any case, life is too short to waste doing something you are certain you won't like. I know I'm that way about various things, so I do get it. Although, sometimes trying a new thing is good.

As for staying healthy, there's a perception I see here that all cruise ships are cesspools all the time and everyone gets sick on every voyage. Neither of those statements is remotely accurate, although some ship lines have worse records others are better. The line I'm taking, Holland America, frequently gets perfect scores on inspections from the US Public Health people. In fact, the specific ship I'll be on, the Eurodam currently has a score of 98. Last year was a 96. The thirteen years before it was a 100.

I actually just took a look at some of the reports for that ship (here's a link to the CDC site where you can look up inspection reports by cruise line and/or specific ship https://wwwn.cdc.gov/InspectionQueryTool/InspectionSearch.aspx) and I was blown away by the specificity of what they looked at.

Certainly the quarantining of a ship where some passengers came down with Corona Virus is vastly different than an outbreak of, say, norovirus on a ship.

[Lefta Dissenter]

53. I have family in Japan

They were living in Yokohama when I first visited. We spent a lot of time hanging out at that harbor area where the cruise ship is “quarantined.”

~400 Americans on board that ship, and I’m not sure how many of them have tested positive. You may know - I didn’t see your other post, but I’ll look for it. There’s an 80-year-old American couple that has been evacuated to a local hospital. 😳

One suggestion is that the families of those Americans should be getting on Fox News every frickin’ day, appealing to trump to evacuate the Americans to the states to be quarantined and treated. If he hears it every day and sees that he can be a “hero,” perhaps he’d actually take some action. As you say, every single person on that ship has likely been infected. They’re living in a toxic environment, and if you quarantine them for two weeks, who’s to say that someone hasn’t just picked up the virus on the twelfth or thirteenth day?

It’s a nightmare.

[dewsgirl]

56. This British couple has been documenting their time in quarantine,

the segments have understandably taken on a darker tone. It turns out one of the virus carriers was their dinner companion for the past two weeks.
Your right about FOX, but we know how horrible the base is, not realizing it's already here, they won't want more people here with the virus. That's how horrible they can be.

[Lefta Dissenter]

59. It's just trump who needs to be convinced

Come on, Donnie. Be the hero! We have facilities where the Americans can be quarantined safely and receive the greatest medical care. I’ll even nominate you for some sort of award and give you another fake Time cover if you do it!

[dewsgirl]

60. I wish he would.

[Ms. Toad]

13. I got royaly spanked

Last edited Fri Feb 7, 2020, 03:11 AM - Edit history (1)

On January 29 for predicting that by approximately Tuesday (2/4) at midight there would be about 37,708 infected and 886 deaths (in response to someone who insisted that the coronavirus would never the number of deaths of SARS.

So - it looks like I was 3 days off. We're on target to hit those numbers tomorrow with the first release of overnight Chinese data - maybe Saturday. It's been growing at a rate of 1.2% per day (my calculation was based on 2.6% every 3.5 days)

Somehow I think 3 days off means I was a tad closer to reality than "never."

. . . I know it's petty, but I'm eagerly awaiting tomorrow, or Saturday, when I drop the stats in that thread.

[The_jackalope]

17. I've been following you.

You know the math.

At this point, I'm starting to root for the quarantine camps.

[Ms. Toad]

18. The math can be modified by changing behavior of the disease -

But that takes recognition of the problem (so we don't do silly things like evacuate the disease from China to here).

The power of exponential growth on a quick time frame is overwhelming once you hit a certain mass. My assessment was that by the time there were 2019 confirmed infections we were past the point at which there would be a reasonable way to contain it.

There were respected epidemiologists who were saying the same thing around the same time, but the main person spanking me was quoting incorrect facts, and didn't seem to understand exponential growth.

There seems to be a slight slowing over the last few days - but it's just a slightly slower exponential growth.

[former9thward]

21. The death rate is about 2%

And those who have died have been mainly over 60 with pre-existing conditins. Far lower than SARs which was about 9%. This has been over-hyped by the media. The common flu in the U.S. is infecting about 10,000 a day and killing about 110 a day. But everyone ignores that.

[The_jackalope]

23. The growth is exponential.

Unless that changes, a 2% death rate can do a lot of damage in a short time.

2% of 6000 infections a day is 120 deaths. We're currently at about 4,000 new new a day. Maybe it's not quite time for the fainting couch and the smelling salts, but it's past time to join the WHO epidemiologists in being concerned.

[Blue_true]

30. The growth is not exponential. For that to be the case, the Wuhan would have to have

infected over 500,000 people in the 50 million quarantine zone. At last count, the infection amount was about 30,000, way lower that exponential growth. Maybe the "real" number is higher and Chinese authorities are hiding it, but you have no proof that it is.

[Ms. Toad]

42. That's not how exponential growth works.

Exponential growth in an illness occurs when the number of new infections daily is proportional to the number of infections - rather than increasing by the same number of new infections each day.

The number you are suggestion would have grown by a factor of approximately 3.16 daily since 1/29. The rate of growth has been closer to 1.24 daily. Both are exponential growths.

[Blue_true]

62. A factor of 1.24 is best described by a line. The growth of the Wuhan virus is a line with a slope

less than 2.

You also used the word "pandemic" as if it was some terrible thing. It is not. Pandemic means that something affects a number of countries, whatever it is does not have to be mild.

One of the issues with the Wuhan virus is that it simulates flu virus symptoms, so people that have beaten the flu may think that they can beat it (and some may have, the lethality of the virus is still an unknown, but it appears way less than SARS).

[Ms. Toad]

68. Breathe . . .

This is middle school math, not rocket science.

If the growth of the Wuhan virus is a line (regardless of the slope), the number of new infections each day would be the same.

If you don't believe me, ask Penny:

http://mathcentral.uregina.ca/QQ/database/QQ.09.06/s/rebecca1.html

Real world proof that it is not linear can be found simply by looking at the number of new cases each day, over a period of days:

Jan 28 - 1482 new caes
Jan 29 - 1795 new cases
Jan 30 - 2005 new cases
Jan 31 - 2127 new cases

Since the number of new caes each day is different - and increasing - the graph of the number of cases plotted against time is not a straight line (with a slope of 1.24, or anything else).

Applying middle school math principles, if cases grow by a factor of 1.24 each day - that is exponential growth. Each day's caes includes the prior day's factor, and the prior day's, and the prior day's, and so on.

D5, for example, = (((((D0 x 1.24) x 1.24) x 1.24) x 1.24) x 1.24) = D0 X 1.24^5

This makes me tired. I expect this conversation with people with math phobias or blocks, but not with engineers.

Sincerely,

high school math teacher for more than a decade, with 2 math degrees and one physics degree under my belt. (and a JD, but that's not relevant here)

As for using the word pandemic as if something was wrong with it - I don't think I've ever used it on DU, aside quoting an article which used it in a neutral manner. I'm purely a numbers cruncher.

[Blue_true]

69. You may know middle school math, but you don't know what slope

in reference to a line mean. The rate of change of Y and X value each day DOES NOT have to be the same to maintain a steep slope value, they just have to ratio out to the same slope value. One of the problems is the two week incubation duration for the virus makes it more difficult to determine where the y-intercept is, also China's less than state of the art medical system does't help. I don't disagree that the slope of the coronavirus is high, but it is not yet high enough to meet the requirement of being exponential like you keep inaccurately claiming.

Also, you and another poster keep mixing up infections with people that are hospitalized. From that you draw the erroneous conclusion that the Coronavirus is killing at a higher rate than the flu. Who KNOWS how many people among the sealed off 50 million in China have been infected. We only know the number that made it to and were taken into treatment. The actual infection number could be very high, or much lower than the number for the flu over a day, a week, a month.

[Ms. Toad]

73. I'm pretty close to speechless.

I've worked with a lot of students who struggle with math over the years - so it's not that I don't get that math is not everyone's thing. But I've never encountered an engineer who seems so out of touch with really basic mathematical concepts. And I've worked with a lot of engineers.

You recited one absolutely correct mathematical concept. With a constant slope, the change in X and the change in Y do not have to be the same as long as the ratio is the same.

What I said in my last post - which you apprently don't believe - is that if the ratio stays the same, that necessarily means the number of new cases in a day must also stay the same. That statement is mathematically indistinguishable from what you said, even though it expressees it differently.

There are only 3 values: M=the constant slope; the change in y (number of new cases); the change in x (change in time).

M=number of new cases/change in time.

In a line, M is constant. The change in time is constant because my assertions were about the number of new cases in 1 day. From there, simple arithmetic dictates that the change in cases is also constant. In other words, exactly what I said - in a linear growth pattern, the number of new cases evey day is the same.

From there you suggested that the steepness of slope somehow determines whether growth is exponential (it doesn't). A line is a line is a line is a line. It doesn't become exonential just because it is steep.

As for mixing up hospitalizations with infections - nope. I've never even looked at hospitalizations. I'm dividing the number of confirmed deaths by the number of confirmed infections (not hospitalizations). I'm checking multiple sources and they are all consistent within a very few people.

The death rate been relatively steady at around 2% for more than a week. Influenza death rates vary somewhat from year to year - but typically are between 1/10 of 1% and 2/10 of one percent. So, on average, the current deat rate for the coronavirus is about 15 times as high as the average death rate for seasonal influenza.

The number of current confirmed infections is 34, 875. The number of confirmed deaths is 724. 724/34875 = .02076 = 2.076%

[Blue_true]

28. Thanks, a realist. The Wuhan virus is new and unknown, but it's infection

rate is lower than the flu in the USA, and if you look at deaths after hospitalizations, the death rate is lower. But people like to be scared. My suggestion to them, learn to wash their hands after touching stuff in public, wash their hands after coming home then rubbing their doorknobs down with 90% alcohol solution - if they do that, the more dangerous threat, the flu, won't kill them.

[58Sunliner]

33. The death rate for the flu and pneumonia here in the states is lower.

Look at my post below. 19 million infected-10k deaths for flu and pneumonia.

[Blue_true]

63. You have to look at the death rate of people that have been hospitalized

for a direct comparison to the Wuhan death rate. When that is done, the flu death rate is 5.5%, the Wuhan is 2%.

There is a lot that is unknown about the Wuhan virus. It is possible that a large number of people got it and did not go to a hospital, we know that people have been turned away from hospitals and sent back home. So for you to say that it's death rate is higher based upon reported hospitalizations is grossly inaccurate, the flu kills more hospitalized people as well as affects a larger number of people.

I am not saying that people should be stupid. If someone develops breathing problems at all, they need to get their ass to a Doctor hospital immediately. What I am saying is that some people here on DU are grossly over-reacting to an unknown that has a lower death rate than a known.

[58Sunliner]

31. CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 19 million flu illnesses, 180,000

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 19 million flu illnesses, 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths from flu. Since end of Sept. to Jan 2020, 4 months-10,000 deaths is @83 per day. But the death rate is far lower than the coronovirus. And some illnesses can be prevented by vaccines. 2% of 19 million is much higher than 10k, 380,000 k. "Almost all (>99%) of the influenza viruses tested this season are susceptible to the four FDA-approved influenza antiviral medications recommended for use in the U.S. this season."

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

[Blue_true]

64. Wow, did you check your math before posting.

83 deaths per day results in 1,660 in 20 days. If the number is divided by 6 to match the isolated 50 million people in China, the 20 day death count would be 276 people, higher than Wihan at 20 days. The 30 day dead from the flu would be 415, comparable to the Wuhan deaths at 36 days.

Again, people in the USA need to worry about the flu. We have a higher daily death rate from the flu in a country that has a far more advanced medical care delivery system.

[58Sunliner]

65. The CDC website, last night, said that there have been about 10,000 deaths so far this year.

The stats today read

Key Points

Outpatient ILI and laboratory data remain elevated and increased again this week. Nationally, and in some regions, the proportion of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses compared to influenza B viruses is increasing.
Overall, hospitalization rates remain similar to this time during recent seasons, but rates among children and young adults are higher at this time than in recent seasons.
Pneumonia and influenza mortality has been low, but 78 influenza-associated deaths in children have been reported so far this season.
CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 22 million flu illnesses, 210,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 deaths from flu.
Flu vaccine effectiveness estimates will be available later this month, but vaccination is always the best way to prevent flu and its potentially serious complications.
Antiviral medications are an important adjunct to flu vaccine in the control of influenza. Almost all (>99%) of the influenza viruses tested this season are susceptible to the four FDA-approved influenza antiviral medications recommended for use in the U.S. this season.

An infection rate of 22 million, with 12,000 deaths. Yes. I checked my math. You do not judge a death rate by the total population-false analogy. You judge a death rate by the number of people who have been infected and died.
Please feel free to redo your math.

[Blue_true]

67. 210,000 hospitalizations, 12,000 dead. No, you did not check your math nor

read my post. All the infection numbers in China are for people that are hot hospitalized, from that 2% died, 5.5-5.71% of flu patients that are hospitalized died.

Who knows what the infection rate in China is. But one thing that I know, if your claim is taken as reality, a LOT more people would be dead there.

Basis for basis, hospitalization versus deaths of people who were hospitalized, the flu in the USA is killing at a higher rate.

[58Sunliner]

70. The infection numbers are a total-they include everyone, even the dead, because guess what?

They died because they were infected. The hospitalized patients were hospitalized, because they were infected. You don't separate out hospitalizations from the total number infected. It is a way to statistically show the severity of the infection rates. Look at the wording of the stats on the websites. Good night.

[Blue_true]

71. All the news stories that I read are saying that when a person in China test positive,

it is in a clinical setting. They are being isolated after that. So the Wuhan number you keep talking about is effective hospitalizations.

I read that people who suspect they are ill got turned away from hospitals early on, so the true infection amount could be higher than what is being reported, which is another indicator that the virus is not as dangerous as media and some reader hysteria is making it out to be.

[Ms. Toad]

38. I misspoke, and have now corrected it.

The contention was that it would not exceed the number of deaths.

[LanternWaste]

48. No. Very few ignore the flu.

Which is one of the reasons it doesn't carry the same results it did 100 years ago.

"This has been over-hyped by the media..."
I have a strong feeling you'll fail to support that statement with anything other than anecdote.

[Blue_true]

72. If the Wuhan virus was anywhere near the flu, a lot more people

in China would be dead.

Chinese authorities isolated the first cases then detained doctors that reported on that. As the outbreak spread, they swept up anyone that had a temperature and isolated them in medical facilities. It is rational to assume that the infection numbers that China is reporting are hospitalizations, or China is lying about the number of infections. If one accepts the second premise and claim that the Wuhan virus is killing more than the flu, then the clear inference is that Chinese authorities are massively lying about the number of dead people from the virus. If the first premis is accepted, it leads back to the Wuhan virus not being deadlier than something that is in our backyard.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

35. Death rate is very different from total deaths.

So far, the corona virus still has a death rate of about 2 percent. Probably a whole lot less than that, considering that most people have mild symptoms and never consult a doctor.

SARS had a death rate of around 15%.

So do not confuse death rate with total deaths.

Oh, and so far this year around 10,000 people have died from influenza and related complications.

[Ms. Toad]

37. Correct - I misspoke.

The claim was it would never exceed the deaths from SARS.

I have now corrected it.

[alwaysinasnit]

15. k&r. Thanks for the update.

[Warpy]

20. This should put the quarantine hospitals into perspective

People who aren't terribly ill will be housed there until they no longer shed live virus in nasal secretions. Chances are that this will persist in feces much the same way as SARS did, so rural people are going to need some sort of sanitary facilities. Composting toilets can work for this.

I'm just hoping that if it gets bad here, quarantine will be reserved for people who are noncompliant or who have vulnerable people at home, like the elderly or children. Not everybody will belong in a hospital and most people should be able to quarantine at home.

China is taking the right actions, trying to prevent this thing from getting into the millions of sick. It does that, it's all over, there will be no way to stop it.

[EndlessWire]

27. Just watching

What China is really doing. It is odd for their claimed numbers. For instance, they built two mega hospitals, not one. Also that is in addition to the sports arenas that are allegedly converted to medical spaces.

I watched a video which showed 1) a woman being manhandled and arrested for not wearing a mask, and 2) a family having their doors chained shut with them inside.

Why is China so danged worried about this, unless they know something they're not sharing? Also, they changed the origination point from snakes to bats (yech! on eating bats...) Why did China allow these open air food marts to keep on going after SARS?

I pray for all those humans who are caught up in this mess.

[58Sunliner]

32. Good questions. Why did the SARS virus take @4 months to infect @385 people-

and the coronovirus took less than a month to infect possibly thousands?

[Warpy]

39. Chaining the doors was done in England for the Great Plague

around 1666. They hadn't built hospitals/hospices/pest houses, even though the plague came through fairly regularly, every 20 years or so. What that did is make sure whole families were wiped out, vastly increasing the death toll. Rich men left for the countryside. Everybody else was stuck. The Great Fire of London was widely credited for ending it, incinerating the rats and fleas that spread it.

Families under quarantine were given food rations by the local parish, usually taken by old women who had survived earlier plagues, and the delivery allowed them to remove the dead. Quarantine was for 40 days.

It looks like China is starting to hit the panic button on this one.Whatever, I just hope they manage to stop this before cases number in the millions. At that point, it will be unstoppable. It's less contagious than influenza, but China is crowded.

Between coronaviruses in China and Ebola in Africa, I hope people manage to get bats off the menu permanently. Not only are most species beneficial to farmers, they're hosts to too many hideous diseases to risk eating.

Strict quarantine regulations kept the human race alive for a long time.

[Ilsa]

24. A friend's wife just returned from China, but was not

in the provinces where the virus is. Still, she is living in the basement without contact with her family for the next two weeks until they know she's in the clear.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

36. How is she getting food?

Is there a toilet in the basement?

This sounds like an amateur version of quarantine by people who don't understand much about how infection might actually occur.

[Warpy]

40. She can mask to enter the rest of the house.

Soap and water will take care of her dishes and the hands of anyone who touches them.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

41. Actually, basic hygiene, like

frequent hand-washing is probably good enough.

People are freaking out far out of proportion to the risk here.

[Warpy]

43. I came across a study of families in which healthy people wore masks

to care for an ill person and practiced good handwashing had reduced influenza transmission by 70%. So far, coronavirus is less contagious than influenza.

[Ilsa]

46. Their daylight basement is fully built out, and her husband stocked

the basement pantry, medicine cabinet, etc before she came home. It has a separate HVAC unit, bathroom. It's a fully functional apartment. He can always leave items outside her door to the backyard.

They both have PhDs, and are pretty capable of working out her isolation, including the vehicle she drove home from the airport, where to enter the home (basement has a separate entrance). She's an IT person. He's a mathematician/ astrophysicist. I think they did a pretty good job, so far. Sure, all bets are off if there is an emergency.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

26. What I find worrisome is the fact that Trump has cut the budget

of the CDC by quite a bit, and we don't have very many competent scientists left anywhere in our government. If it starts spreading here I don't expect it will be handled well at all.

[Warpy]

44. Most of the cuts were quietly restored

via riders to other bills. Republicans are a cult, but they're not a suicidal one. Yet.

[58Sunliner]

29. Scary. And it isn't just the old and compromised having severe problems.

That 15% is respirators, aka mechanical ventilation, and for some dialysis-which cleans your blood. That is a frightening statistic.

[Croney]

49. A Singapore update. My daughter's trip is definitely off.

Singapore response level raised. Our other daughter who lives in Singapore says she's standing in long lines for groceries like a hurricane is coming.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-singapore-raises-dorscon-response-level-to-orange-092612715.html

[bucolic_frolic]

51. Thanks for the update

Wondered what would happen. sometimes you just have to do what you have to do.

[Malmsy]

52. This terrifies me, living on the West Coast. (nt)

[IcyPeas]

58. so the 1,778 that have recovered.....

was it because of any specific drug cocktail or did they just recover on their own? In other words does it just "run its course" for some people as a regular virus will?

[WyattKansas]

61. Shouldn't tRUMP go to China for a new trade deal...

To brag about in the election?

[dalton99a]

74. New Report on 138 Coronavirus Cases Reveals Disturbing Details (NYT)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/health/coronavirus-patients.html

New Report on 138 Coronavirus Cases Reveals Disturbing Details
A highly contagious patient, virus transmission inside a hospital and unexpected turns for the worse have emerged as part of the epidemic in China.
By Denise Grady
Feb. 7, 2020

One patient, admitted to a hospital in Wuhan, China, infected at least 10 health care workers and four other patients with the coronavirus that has sickened more than 34,000 people, killed 700 and reached two dozen other countries.

The case was just one disturbing detail in a new report on 138 patients in Wuhan that helps explain how the illness progresses and how it spreads.

The report, one of two published on Friday by JAMA, is among the most comprehensive articles to date about people infected with the newly identified virus.

The patients ranged in age from 22 to 92, with a median of 56 years, and were admitted to Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University from Jan. 1 to Jan 28. Many of them — 41 percent — were presumed to have caught the virus in the hospital, including 17 people who had been admitted for other illnesses, and 40 health care workers.

The patient who infected so many health workers had been placed in a surgical ward because of abdominal symptoms, and the coronavirus was not initially suspected. Four other patients in that ward also contracted the disease, presumably from the first patient.

The incident was a chilling reminder of the “super-spreaders” in outbreaks of other coronavirus diseases, SARS and MERS — patients who infected huge numbers of other people, sometimes dozens. The phenomenon is poorly understood and unpredictable, an epidemiologist’s nightmare. Super-spreaders led to considerable transmission of MERS and SARS inside hospitals.

[spinbaby]

75. This virus has some very troublesome features

It’s both highly transmissible and apparently can be transmitted before symptoms appear. Singapore allegedly has four cases in which the victims weren’t in China and didn’t have contact with anyone receiving in China.

[dalton99a]

77. One city's plan: Don't let them buy medicine.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/08/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html
Coronavirus Live Updates: An American Dies of the Virus in Wuhan, China

One city’s plan for getting people to the doctor: Don’t let them buy medicine.

Hangzhou, a Chinese city with a population of 10 million, said it would temporarily ban the sale of flu and cough medicine at pharmacies, in an effort to compel people who might be sick to see a doctor.

To stop the spread of the coronavirus, the Chinese authorities have taken increasingly draconian measures to curb travel, impose social distancing and track those who might be sick. Several cities in the eastern province of Zhejiang, including some sections of Hangzhou, have set limits on how often people can leave their houses, generally allowing one person to leave every few days to buy groceries. Paper passports have been printed to keep tabs on residents.

As such restrictions have increased, so have people’s fears about being suspected to have the virus. Some have complained that hotels set up for quarantines do little to separate people who are already sick from those who have no symptoms, but who are from an area that experienced an outbreak. In recent weeks, several articles in Chinese news media have told of people who used medicine to suppress coronavirus symptoms to pass through the country’s now ubiquitous fever-screening checkpoints.

Online, many people vented frustration about Hangzhou’s ban on medicine sales, though some said it was a good way to identify cases of the coronavirus that otherwise might not surface.

Some wondered what those with chronic illnesses were supposed to do if they couldn’t get medicine they needed to relieve their symptoms. Others worried that the policy would speed the spread of the virus by forcing many more people to go to hospitals, where some carriers of the virus would likely be. Many have been alarmed by images from Wuhan of packed hospital waiting areas.

“Going to the hospital for a regular cold?” wrote one skeptical user. “What if you go to the hospital and get infected?”