Why Trump is very beatable

[babylonsister]

https://www.axios.com/donald-trump-beatable-2020-polls-f4ad8079-410a-456e-8faa-88bd1779261f.html


Why Trump is very beatable
Mike Allen


There is a growing sense among top Republicans and Democrats that President Trump is stronger than ever and very hard to beat this fall, but several data points suggest otherwise.

Why it matters:

Amid record-high stock markets and record-low joblessness, Trump trails almost every 2020 Democrat nationally, and is in a statistical tie in swing-state polls.

Yes, he has a big early edge in raising money and gaming Facebook to target voters. But Michael Bloomberg is willing to spend $2 billion (some say twice that) to easily level things — and will spend big even if he's not the nominee.

The data points:

Trump won in 2016 by 80,000 votes, thanks in part to low Democratic turnout. There is scant evidence he has broadened his base, even as he solidifies it.

Trump ties or trails every leading Democrat in virtually every national poll, including a Fox News poll out Jan. 26.

In most swing-state polls, Trump is within the margin of error — and often well below 50% — despite a booming economy. In many cases, he trails most of the top-tier candidates.

Bloomberg has more money than Trump ever did, and unlike the president, plans to spend it, either on himself or the party’s nominee. Republicans would have no answer financially if he dumps several billion into ads and manpower.

There's a significant gap between the optimism about the economy (60%+) and Trump himself, an unusual decoupling for an incumbent. This data point worries top Republicans a lot.

Between the lines: Don’t forget 2018. Democrats enjoyed record turnout and won back the House.

After lackluster voter participation in Iowa, Democrats broke the New Hampshire turnout record set in 2008. (But it's worth noting that turnout was on par with recent cycles where only one party had a competitive primary, per the N.Y. Times.)

The bottom line: Trump is no doubt strong and getting stronger, despite impeachment. But Democrats are so traumatized by Trump’s 2016 win that they're overlooking real signs of his vulnerability.

Even Bernie Sanders, whose socialism establishment Democrats fear could tank their chances, looks strong against Trump in relevant polls.

Axios' Rashaan Ayesh contributed reporting.

[empedocles]

1. Imo, the 'trump base' is overstated. Just a significant further weakening in

10% of trump's poll 40% will cause the 'cons serious problems.

[ooky]

6. Yeah, I think his "strength" is overstated and more MSM rhetoric

than anything else.

It's all about swing states, where I'm not sure I believe the margin of error. If we GOTV he should be toast. He barely won many of those states in 2016 and his approval rate hasn't moved since then, which means to me that he hasn't picked up any new support. So if we get our voters to turn out in the same numbers they did in 2018 we should come out on top.

Its all about GOTV in swing states, and turning back Republican attempts at voter suppression/disenfranchisement/fraud in those states.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

2. He can beat himself, too. Just bombard him with ridicule from all sides.

[NewJeffCT]

3. In 2003 and 2004, Bush was sold as unbeatable as well

because he had raised so much money and was popular. But, even a capable, but bland, candidate in John Kerry came within a whisker of beating Bush (stolen Ohio?)

[Thomas Hurt]

4. We should neither underestimate or despair over that amoral pig and slack off or give up.

[CrispyQ]

5. The article is right that while the Con has solidified his base, it hasn't grown.

He hovers right around 40%. However, that is still disturbing.

Fintan O’Toole: Trial runs for fascism are in full flow
Babies in cages were no ‘mistake’ by Trump but test-marketing for barbarism

Tue, Jun 26, 2018, 05:00
by Fintan O’Toole

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-trial-runs-for-fascism-are-in-full-flow-1.3543375

Fascism doesn’t arise suddenly in an existing democracy. It is not easy to get people to give up their ideas of freedom and civility. You have to do trial runs that, if they are done well, serve two purposes. They get people used to something they may initially recoil from; and they allow you to refine and calibrate. This is what is happening now and we would be fools not to see it.

One of the basic tools of fascism is the rigging of elections – we’ve seen that trialled in the election of Trump, in the Brexit referendum and (less successfully) in the French presidential elections. Another is the generation of tribal identities, the division of society into mutually exclusive polarities. Fascism does not need a majority – it typically comes to power with about 40 per cent support and then uses control and intimidation to consolidate that power. So it doesn’t matter if most people hate you, as long as your 40 per cent is fanatically committed. That’s been tested out too. And fascism of course needs a propaganda machine so effective that it creates for its followers a universe of “alternative facts” impervious to unwanted realities. Again, the testing for this is very far advanced.

I have to remind myself that the Con is historically unpopular. We have to focus on that and Get Out The Vote this November. We need massive turnout to save our country.

[Yavin4]

7. Thanos is beatable. The White Walkers were beatable.

Takes the right combination of people to beat him.