People need to stop discounting his rising approval

[ibegurpard]

We have a steep hill to climb to oust him in November and sticking your fingers in your ears isn't going to help. He already got elected once and we've seen since that there's nothing he can do that will peel Republicans and other right-leaners away from him. Right now his ugly face is braying all over the place the things that people want to hear in a crisis... that everything is going to be OK and we have it under control and we're doing all the right things. There are a LOT of people out there who just tune political stuff out and DON'T make the connections between their political decisions or inaction and real-world consequences. Assuming everyone pays as much attention as anyone here is a fatal mistake. It is our job to convince all of those people outside of his 40-plus percent cult that they must oust him and do everything they can to vote and get others to do the same. We cannot rely on the media and even if we could human nature informs us that most people would rather believe what makes them feel better than the truth.

[cilla4progress]

1. I think Americans on some level

harbor self-hatred. He is the expression of that.

[Hortensis]

15. Many on the far left do "self hate," far right "hate everyone else." But

hey! The rest of us, both the liberals of the Democratic Party sensible moderate conservatives, like Nicolle Wallace say, are Americans too.

I say a big no to smearing our majority with hard-core RWers and the various fringe nuts and hostile extremists on the far left. Voters shifted domination of government to the RW beginning back in 1980, and the old working majorities broke with it and haven't been able to save the rest from themselves since. The way we had for 50 years.

[liberalmuse]

2. Didn't W jump to 90% after 9/11?

This is a measly few percentage points for Trump considering this is a major crisis.

[ibegurpard]

5. Tell yourself whatever you want

We cannot assume anything and must do everything we can to activate and inform those outside the cult

[liberalmuse]

18. I'm looking at the facts.

Trump's approval rating is miniscule when compared to other President's approval ratings in similar situations. That doesn't mean I don't intend to continue informing those I come in contact with, while understanding they are indeed in a cult and have been intensely brainwashed, some for decades. That isn't easy to penetrate. I'm not deluding myself, but on the other hand, believe a lot of the cynicism permeating liberal forums is detrimental. It does no good to give up hope and succumb to gloom and doom.

[ibegurpard]

20. Im not suggesting giving up hope

I'm saying STOP insisting that the polls are wrong and recognize the challenge for what it is.

[liberalmuse]

21. I did not say the polls were wrong.

I did not even suggest it.

[jimfields33]

8. and Bush won second term

dont Discount anything.

[uponit7771]

13. +1

[Polybius]

30. That was over three years before his reelection

He had plenty of time to go down.

[customerserviceguy]

31. But

W was only new in his term in office, and while there was still a bad taste left in a lot of people's mouths about the way the election went, Shrub still hadn't made nearly the shit-ton of enemies that Trump has.

[Turin_C3PO]

3. I'm not discounting it but

I do believe it will go back down to his normal 42% or lower in time. That doesn’t mean we can lay back though. We must get out the vote and do anything we can to get Biden elected.

[ibegurpard]

7. Precisely

It can be done but poo-pooing the polls as fixed or discounting them will just promote a falae sense of security that we absolutely cannot afford

[RockRaven]

4. By November there will be a 6-figure death toll. The degree to which that affects voters I cannot

predict. But what I do know is that that 6-figure death toll is inevitable at this point, and is not accounted for in todays polls.

[jimfields33]

9. Do you mean worldwide?

[RockRaven]

22. No. The worst-case scenario in one model was 2+ millions US deaths. Even reducing that by 95%

yields over 100K.

With insufficient resources, a federal government stymying multiple Democratic blue-state governors, multiple Repuke governors ignoring evidence-based policies, we are NOT going to experience the best-case scenario from this moment forward.

Expecting a 6-figure death toll in the US seems reasonable to me.

[customerserviceguy]

32. According to the CDC

a bit more than 2.8 million Americans died in 2017, the last year they have statistics for. Even if you add a six-figure number to that, it won't make that much of a difference. Also factor in the lowered number of people who won't be dying in auto accidents due to reduced travel, that are surely a component of that 2017 figure.

[dalton99a]

42. +1. And people won't be able to pay their bills for long with that big government check

[D_Master81]

6. I expect

It will go back down once the crisis has subsided and there’s a competing narrative to his daily propaganda show. Once people have it thrown in their face how much he bungled early on and how that lead to what it became some will peel off. Yet as I learned in 2004, Americans allow much grace for Republican incompetence as I thought for sure W wouldn’t be re-elected after the debacle that was Iraq and WMDs.

[davekriss]

10. The 538 spread is down to 3.4%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

The spread between Trump approval/disapproval at 538 is down to -3.4% for registered voters. It was almost -10% a week or two ago. I am at a complete loss, devastated that so many of my fellow Americans can be so fully snookered by that orange mash of jello some call Mr. President.

[catsudon]

17. i saw a thread yesterday

of someone from du surprised that their doctor is a trump suppporter....


well, we know that ~49% of the people are trumpster, there are bound to be many people you meet outside of du who are trumpanzees

be vigilant, and don't let your guard down, we want our numbers to be better than when clinton was running!

[Gidney N Cloyd]

41. Only 55% of eligible Americans even voted in '16 and of those only 46% voted for Trump.

[ProfessorGAC]

11. On That Point. (On Edit: Meant As Reply To Post 10)

With major news outlets choosing not to air the briefings live, it may accelerate your expected outcome.

[uponit7771]

12. Bush 2 was at 90% post 911 attack, these numbers are horrible for Trump please keep in perspective

[still_one]

14. Approval ratings do not necessarily translate to votes, and the current polls do not correlate to

that latest gallop approval we hear quoted recently. In fact if you go to 538, you will see that other approval polls seem to counter that gallop poll, where his disapproval exceeds his approval

Approval polls are very subjective, volatile, and represent different things to different people

Your main point that we should not become complacent is very likely important, and the actual election polls seem to support that, because in a few critical swing states Biden verses trump is within the MOE, while in those same critical swing states Sanders verses trump is outside the MOE where trump wins

[Polybius]

33. Today they don't though

538 now has him averaging 46.3. That's the highest he has ever averaged.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

[still_one]

35. If you want to look at it that way fine. It still indicates 54% disaprove. What does that say

I still stand by the argument that approval ratings do not necessarily translate to general election polls

[Polybius]

37. No, there are a few undecideds, so it's closer than an 8 point spread

I prefer to look at things negatively. Run like you're 10 points behind.

[still_one]

40. Just move down the page of the link you supplied, and the number of disapproval contradict what you

just said

regardless, approval does not translate to votes

It sure didn't help Sanders, and his approval ratings were actually above 50%

I do not like approval polls, because they are too volatile and mean different things to different people

State polls for the general election are what I look at, and I do agree you have to run with those polls as though you are 10 points behind

Approval polls to me are nonesense

[ck4829]

16. You're right. In a time of crisis, there are fools who want someone else to do the thinking for them

This is what we are seeing today.

[Grasswire2]

19. sorry, but his approval "rising" is simply slight and anecdotal. Within margin of error.

Eleven out of the top current polls show his DISAPPROVAL higher.

Only the one ABC poll shows approval. And only by 2 %.

The most recent Rasmussen poll, which usually favors Republicans, shows him 6% DOWN.


Look for yourself.


[link:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/|

[Grasswire2]

23. and the Rasmussen poll is LIKELY VOTERS..

...while the ABC poll is ALL VOTERS.

Significant.

[Polybius]

34. If we discount Rasmussen when it's too high, we must always discount it

538 has him at 46.3. That's his average. The shy is indeed falling.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

[Jirel]

43. This.

We have to look at all the polls and the context of the polling. Not going to light my hair on fire over the ABC poll.

[sarisataka]

24. It is so much easier on my view of the world

To discount or ignore anything which contradicts my own viewpoint while accepting without question everything that supports what I believe.

The world is always rosey, at least until it goes sideways

[ooky]

25. You couldn't stop me from voting in November

if I'm still alive. I don't believe for one second that he is getting more popular in the middle of this shitshow.

[stillcool]

26. you want to worry about november?

go for it. I'm not sticking my fingers in my ears, but I don't give a good god damn about what some polls say in flipping March. Trump lost in 2016, and if people can vote, and the votes are counted he will lose again. I hate b.s. that tries to create a perception that in no way equals reality.

[CrispyQ]

27. I agree we need to be vigilant, but when the bodies start piling up, they won't be able to hide it.

"They" being the GOP and the media. The red states can refuse to report the number of COVID cases and the number of unemployed all they want, but we are headed down a dark path and soon everyone is going to see the darkness, in spite of the lies the Con tries to shine on it.

Personally I think the only thing the churches are going to be full of on Easter is coffins. People who haven't been paying attention are going to wake up in their worst nightmare a few weeks from now.

I'm taking a screen shot of case counts/death counts every day from this COVID tracking site:

https://infection2020.com

[wiggs]

28. They are going to lie, cheat, steal their way to higher approval ratings and to

an election close enough to steal.

[JCMach1]

29. Dead cat bounce

[treestar]

36. Being a national poll

We need to find out his approval in the swing states.

[customerserviceguy]

38. Thanks for posting that

There are only three possibilities here:

1) The outcome of the C-19 crisis will be pretty much as expected.

2) The outcome will be significantly worse than almost anywhere in the world, and a lot of underdeveloped nations still have a very small number of cases (and deaths) at this point, so it's hazardous to assume that the US will be the worst off.

3) Even though Trump has done a horrible job of preparing for this, way better people will manage the feat of making the outcome of the crisis considerably better than most people expect.

If #3 happens, you know Trump will claim the credit for it. And even if we get #'s 1 or 2, if the blame can be shifted to China, then Trump might not be blamed as badly as he deserves.

[Brainfodder]

39. He has zero.zero chance in Nov. with the climbing death # that he can not hide?

How many of these ridiculous threads we gonna read every day?

WE here at D.U. need no DOOMSDAY BS convincing, post this crap on Fox News Made Me A Stooge forums?

Now stealing the election somehow, that's a better focus?

[LizBeth]

44. 51% is nothing in a time of crisis, especially a crisis this big. Facts still matter

[pat_k]

45. Please listen!

This crisis is more likely to help DT than hurt him.

His "story" -- that his China ban kept the "Chinese virus" out and saved us from things being FAR worse -- is simple and easy to understand.

However bad it gets, a WHOLE LOT of people -- anyone who buys his story, and that won't just be his steadfast supporters -- will believe DT "saved us" from a worse fate.

The truth is more complex than that (timeline of failures here)

We -- purveyors of the truth -- are at a distinct disadvantage. Our "story" is a lot tougher to get across. A simple lie wins over a complex truth.

We can rail against it. We can explain why the travel ban was doomed from the start until we are blue in the face (no pun intended). Of course, they completely failed to do ONE thing to contain in the first, most critical, 7 weeks. By the time he issued his ban, it was HERE. But because they weren't testing, we have no numbers to PROVE this.

His story has more legs than ours.

And now, when all the precautions keep the numbers down, he'll say

"Look, it wasn't as bad as all those hysterical people said. We could have opened things up FAR earlier. It's the evil Dems in NY, CA, etc., who destroyed our economy with their lockdowns."

We can point at data showing that things were far worse in areas that refused to lockdown early, but once again, that requires some explanation, and you can bet the Republican noise machine with have lies and excuses to discount the data.

We have enough to fight against with their incredibly effective efforts to suppress the vote in "certain" areas through inadequate resources and other measures. If fall for the notion that DT is "toast" because of this, the sense of overconfidence will suppress voter turnout and guarantee his victory. (Just as the overconfidence that there was no way DT could beat Hillary suppressed turnout in 2016.)

Please listen! He is, and will remain, a formidable opponent with a very good chance at winning. It's up to us to turn out our vote in big, big, numbers to stop him.

[Gothmog]

46. No, Trump is not going to suddenly become FDR

Why I am not concerned about trump's meager polling bounce

Link to tweet

First, let’s note that this increase in Trump’s approval is relatively small, given that we’re in the midst of one of the most monumental crises in American history.

In such extraordinary circumstances, the president’s approval would normally be shooting up. At times like these, Americans are looking for comfort. They want to believe that the president and the government are in control.

When Lyndon B. Johnson took over after John F. Kennedy’s assassination, his approval rating was 78 percent, even though he hadn’t done anything yet. Likewise, Gerald Ford had a 71 percent approval upon taking office during Watergate; it didn’t fall until he pardoned Richard M. Nixon. (We’re using Gallup’s historical data.)….

And after 9/11, George W. Bush’s approval soared to 90 percent. This is the historical pattern: In times of crisis, the president’s approval will go up almost regardless of whether he’s doing a good job or not.

So if in the midst of a public health nightmare and a horrific looming recession, Trump’s approval goes up by a few points, it’s not exactly a ringing endorsement of his presidency.

Improvements in Trump’s approval will likely remain relatively constrained compared to those historical standards, because as everyone knows, we’re in a period of intense polarization. There are fewer so-called “real” independents (who don’t actually lean to one party), and nearly all those who do associate with a party will never give thumbs up to a presidential candidate from the other party.....

What’s more, built-in perceptions of Trump will remain. As Aaron Blake notes, the new Post/ABC poll showing Trump’s approval rising also finds a large majority — 58 percent — think Trump reacted too slowly to the crisis. If things go seriously south, then that built-in sense that Trump botched the early response could compound public blame going forward, particularly since he’ll likely keep up with the depraved public spectacles.