Trump is enjoying the "highest" approval ratings of his term from the "rally around the flag effect:

[OnDoutside]

@RachelBitecofer

Trump is enjoying the "highest" approval ratings of his term from the "rally around the flag effect: BUT they are in still in the high 40s, lets be really generous and say is Trump's COVID19 R.A.T.F. peak approval average is gonna come in at 48%.

Link to tweet

One thing you should know is that we are at the very beginning of the infection crisis here in the U.S., even in NYC. We should be hitting peak shitshow in mid-April, about the time DT thought we'd be repacking pews but we really don't know bc even though we now lead the world in infections, we still not able to do widespread testing, so we aren't sure if our cool spots are actually cool spots or just spots being under tested. It is STILL not the case that anyone can get a test and many who have taken a test are waiting 10 days or more for results.

In addition, the damage to the economy, at this point is abstract. I won't call it theoretical, bc its not, it is tangible, but for many people, it is still abstract. One month from now, it will be tangible. As will be reports of the key decisions made by Trump & the Admin such the decision to not respond aggressively in Jan. and the continued refusal to invoke the Defense Production Act w would allow the Fed gov to direct companies to produce PPEs, vents, and other critical care materials, bypass patents (which is holding back the voluntary effort) & perhaps even more imp, take over the country's supply chain of PPEs and vents and other critical care products which would allow them to be distributed where they are needed, when they are needed, in a way that maximizes the number of people who can be saved. Currently, vents are sitting unused in some places while in others, like NYC, doctors are attempting to keep multiple patients alive on 1 vent, something only seen in mass casualty events. States are forced into bidding wars w each other & w the fed gov for supplies. The DPA simply MUST BE invoked.

Not invoking it is negligent. I can't imagine any other POTUS not doing this when they know people will die bc of a lack of access to these machines. But, he seems hellbent to do it this way, forcing the states into some crazy Darwin "survival of the fittest" system.
Let's take a look at just how weak Trump's "rally around the flag" effect really is. Here is GWB's after 9/11 & here is some imp context, Bush was VERY contentious up until that Sept morning bc of the issue in the 2000 election & the way the election was decided. As I said in an earlier thread, had 9/11 never happened, it is my belief that the 2002 midterms would have produced a significant negative partisanship effect, and of course, the entire context of the 2004 prez election would have been diff. But Bush showed tremendous leadership & no matter what you might think of his actions 3 months later, those 1st 3 months he did an excellent job of directing the nation through its national grief.

Too be fair, as I've pointed out numerous times, mass polarization was just beginning to register in 2001, so there was more elasticity in public opinion back then too, but if I was to handicap it down to 2020 polarization leves- Bush is still hitting the 80s on approval right after 9/11. I have, many times, tried to remind people that the POTUS Trump most emulates is Carter, bc other than Carter, Trump is the most disliked prez to ever run for reelection. Johnson was that disliked but had the good sense to quit. But not Carter & not Trump. But looking at this graph, in the sunset of 79', the Iran Hostage crisis actually gave Carter reason to hope- giving him a more than 20pt RATF effect!

But, as you can see, that RATF effect was temp, it wore off, bc the event happened, and then Carter had to deal w it. Right now for Trump we're just getting through the 1st quarter of the event happening. This will be a slo-mo train wreck, and like usual, he has set himself up in the very worst way possible by telling everyone that it will all be magically over before it even fully begins. Just like he told all of us the 31 cases would go to 15 and then to 0 bc the virus would magically disappear. Trump is not a strategic man, if he was, he'd manage expectations in such a way as to not ensure no matter what happens, it will always be worse than what he said would happen.

Likely, it's going to be a lot worse. Eventually, average Americans, the ones who aren't following news, who don't understand what he should be doing but isn't, those people WILL catch up. That said, just like the RATF effect was fairly inelastic, I expect its erosion will be too. In the end Trump's likely to come out of this, in summer say, worse off politically than he was pre-crisis, but not as bad as the eco fundamental models will estimate bc hyperpartisnahip & polarization should help him maintain a pretty robust floor. Like I said in the forecast, watch for erosion of support among Rs, who have consistently come in at 90/10 approve. Until & unless that breakdown starts to erode, Trump's floor is 43.

[DarthDem]

1. Brilliant Analysis

I don't know why everyone is so concerned about Mr. Trump's approval rating, but as Rachel B. points out, it's - very sadly and unfortunately - pretty early in this crisis. Way too early to be concerned about one or two polls.

[hlthe2b]

2. Bullshit.

The bad news for Trump, amid his coronavirus poll bump
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/27/bad-news-trump-amid-his-coronavirus-poll-bump/

On its surface, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll is the latest to offer good news for President Trump. His approval rating has reached a new high — as it has in other polls this week — and the overall view of his handling of the coronavirus outbreak is yet again positive.

But this poll, perhaps more than others, suggests just how temporary that bump might be. --snip--

But the Post-ABC poll asked one very specific question on the coronavirus that doesn’t reflect so favorably on Trump. It asked people whether they thought Trump was too slow to respond to the crisis or whether he reacted with the right speed. Fully 58 percent of people said he was too slow, while just 38 percent said he reacted as quickly as he should have.

So 58 percent say he was too slow, but just 45 percent disapprove of his handling of it. In other words, about 1 in 8 Americans believe Trump failed to recognize and act upon --snip--

The other key point here is that while Trump has gotten a bump, it’s significantly smaller than the kind of bumps we’re used to in these situations. Jimmy Carter, for instance, saw his approval rating jump double digits during the Iran hostage crisis. George W. Bush’s skyrocketed after 9/11. John F. Kennedy also went up double digits during the Cuban missile crisis. Bill Clinton rose by double digits when his scandal came to light in 1998 and then again when he was impeached.

Trump’s bump, by contrast, is in the mid-single digits even in his best polls — and is closer to nil in others. Perhaps that’s partially a symptom of our polarization, but it doesn’t indicate a huge change in fundamentals for him.

And the finding that he was too slow to address the coronavirus threat is also ominous. If that holds, and the situation does get really bad, it won’t be a great logical leap for people to believe that he has made things worse. Ditto his recent call to reopen parts of the economy, which carries massive public health risks, according to Trump’s own top health officials, and comes at a time when polls show a strong majority support drastic measures to combat the virus.

Trump’s handling of this situation has been unsteady and consistently factually challenged. Many people are either not consuming this or are willing to look past it for now. And his most devoted supporters will probably continue to do so regardless of what happens from here on out. But that doesn’t mean it will always be thus for people in the middle. And this poll, for perhaps the first time, speaks to lingering doubts about how up to the task he has been.

[rockfordfile]

5. It sounds like Disney wants a bailout.

[Newest Reality]

3. That settles it...

This can't be my home planet. I must have been abducted from somewhere sane and dropped here as an experiment.

Where's my ship?

[OnDoutside]

8. Wait until the body bags start mounting up.

[CrispyQ]

4. From wikipedia regarding W's approval ratings:

Bush began his presidency with ratings near 60%. In the time of national crisis following the September 11 attacks, polls showed approval ratings of greater than 85%, peaking in at 92%, and a steady 80–90% approval for about four months after the attacks.

That the Con can barely top 50% during an unprecedented crisis is telling. His numbers can't stay this high. By Easter the churches will be filled with coffins.

It's hard not to be outraged at every asshole who voted for this fucker, who thought that a reality TV show con man would know how to run a country.

[Miguelito Loveless]

6. The fact that Trump polls above single digits

is a damning moral indictment of 40% of the country.

[JaneQPublic]

7. Why is it only Dems who "Rally Around the Flag"?

After 9/11, GWBush saw his approval ratings skyrocket to nearly 90 percent, which couldn't have occurred without a huge number of Dems concluding their country needs unity in a time of crisis, and we only have one president to lead.

Can anyone think of a time in recent decades when GOPers set aside partisanship during a war or other national crisis to RATF? I'm thinking of the Clinton years during the war in Cosovo and a leading GOPer (Trent Lott?) made it abundantly clear that supporting the troops does NOT mean you support the president.

[customerserviceguy]

9. That graph looks like

well, never mind...