Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Midnightwalk

(3,131 posts)
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 04:52 PM Mar 2020

What does post peak look like?

Is there anything good to read about that?

I’m not going to second guess what epidemiologists think. I have read there is a range of estimates and am guessing that peak will occur at different times. I’m curious about thing like

What does the other side of the peak look like? We were slow to lock down and people have been tightening up their isolation. Is it likely to be a slow decline or match the build up or something else?

What makes it the peak? How much does isolation vs immunity vs other factors play in stopping the increase?

At some point scientists will say it’s ok to go out at least in some communities. What’s needed in terms of random testing or other triggers that would cause us to quickly go back to lock down. I’ve read there could be multiple waves

What are the next best steps and what is needed? If we had antibody and infection tests readily available how would those be used? For example, if i knew I was immune and not infectious would that mean it’s ok to be around or would that just make others more likely to inappropriately end isolation?

We are fortunate enough to be working from home. We’re going to be very slow in ending isolation not just to avoid infection but to not risk infecting others.

14 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
What does post peak look like? (Original Post) Midnightwalk Mar 2020 OP
Hearing too many stories about test delays gibraltar72 Mar 2020 #1
Seems like testing is critical Midnightwalk Mar 2020 #4
Looking at Wuhan it looks like people afraid of going outside uponit7771 Mar 2020 #2
That's where I think I'll be for quite a while Midnightwalk Mar 2020 #5
+1, this will take months ... wait till it gets above 500,000 cases uponit7771 Mar 2020 #6
Got about a month to go before that becomes clearer, still climbing that wave Baclava Mar 2020 #3
Agree partially Midnightwalk Mar 2020 #8
Post peak there are likely to be waves. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #7
If we end lockdown what do we look for Midnightwalk Mar 2020 #9
Here's a good source Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #10
Thank you. Good information nt Midnightwalk Mar 2020 #13
Post peak is when the number of infected starts to decline Marrah_Goodman Mar 2020 #11
Here are some projections (assuming precautions remain in place) pat_k Mar 2020 #12
Thank you! StarryNite Mar 2020 #14

gibraltar72

(7,506 posts)
1. Hearing too many stories about test delays
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 04:57 PM
Mar 2020

where someone went back to work awaiting test. Anecdotal but in my little burg they say an employee of biggest employer was sick enough to get test, but went back to work before results. Tests are showing us where we were. Not where we are.

Midnightwalk

(3,131 posts)
4. Seems like testing is critical
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:18 PM
Mar 2020

But this is the type of that that is easy for amateurs like me to get wrong.

It’d be nice to start with what experts say.

Midnightwalk

(3,131 posts)
5. That's where I think I'll be for quite a while
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:20 PM
Mar 2020

Unless say there’s testing available that says I’m likely already immune and also can’t infect anyone else.

Midnightwalk

(3,131 posts)
8. Agree partially
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:27 PM
Mar 2020

Clearly all the experts can do is project.

I believe nothing the whitehouse says.

But the experts probably known things like what they’ll be looking for and what testing would help.

For example, if they ordered enough test kits how much would that change the time we need to lock down? That is, the thought process might change what we do today to influence whether we’re locked down say 4 vs 8 weeks after peak.

At least I would he encouraged to know that was being worked on rather than the stupid everything will be fine by easter bs.

People are talking like it’s over at the peak. Knowing what else is involved might clarify that it won’t be.

Midnightwalk

(3,131 posts)
9. If we end lockdown what do we look for
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:33 PM
Mar 2020

Last edited Sat Mar 28, 2020, 07:47 PM - Edit history (1)

Would we need to have enough ongoing testing to detect that lockdown should happen again? Should we lock down again if other communities see infection or hospitalization rates increase?

I’m not in a huge rush to get back out although it would be nice. I’m actually more interested in whether we have the right preparations like tests available when controls start to be lifted. Seems like there is a lot to do now even if that doesn’t happen for say 8 weeks.

My ulterior motive is counter acting the impression that reaching peak means it’s safer.

[link: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf]

Edit to add link from ms toad. Thanks

Marrah_Goodman

(1,586 posts)
11. Post peak is when the number of infected starts to decline
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:40 PM
Mar 2020

However, unless we are testing much much more people we won't really know when that is happening.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»What does post peak look ...