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Amishman

(5,523 posts)
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 07:52 AM Apr 2020

How much longer can we keep things shut down?

I'm starting to see stay at home orders extended into May, and new infections do not seem to be declining.

Some businesses are putting together contingency plans for this running well into summer or fall. I don't think we can extend the lockdowns that far without economic collapse that no amount of stimulus will resolve.

I am starting to think the only way to get out of this is about six more weeks of stay at home. During that time we need more improvised hospitals, mass production of vents and protective equipment, crash training of additional medical staff, large scale coordinated trials of every proposed vaccine or treatment, public training on proper use of masks and gloves.

Then we open back up, with masks mandated in public.

The problem is the 'moon program' needed in the remaining shutdown needs a strong hand to do it, and we have a citrus fruit for a president.

24 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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How much longer can we keep things shut down? (Original Post) Amishman Apr 2020 OP
im resolved that this will last until the election at least samnsara Apr 2020 #1
If we did what S Korea did would could be BigmanPigman Apr 2020 #2
most likely thru summer if not fall, early winter beachbumbob Apr 2020 #3
I think we are looking at 12-18 months - this will be a US life paradigm shift NRaleighLiberal Apr 2020 #4
There's no way we continue what we are doing right now for 12-18 months. Ace Rothstein Apr 2020 #11
cure worse than the disease? stillcool Apr 2020 #12
There is a definitely a point where you'll be able to say the cure is worse than the disease. Ace Rothstein Apr 2020 #13
Exactly Calculating Apr 2020 #17
A month or two more at the most madville Apr 2020 #5
When DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2020 #14
So do we just keep the country closed for a year? Calculating Apr 2020 #18
The answer to that is beyond my ken. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2020 #20
This isn't going to obey our whims of "six more weeks." It will take what it takes. Squinch Apr 2020 #6
A lot of places will be peaking in six weeks. TwilightZone Apr 2020 #7
Realistically? Generic Brad Apr 2020 #8
There has to be a blood test for the antibodies MacKasey Apr 2020 #9
Friend in Australia says their PM says minimum of 6 months. sinkingfeeling Apr 2020 #10
We're going to have to clear the peaks in the hospitals greenjar_01 Apr 2020 #15
Italy and Spain are actually showing some positive signs, in terms of flattening the curves bullwinkle428 Apr 2020 #16
I'd say we can handle another month or two Calculating Apr 2020 #19
The virus is in charge of that, nothing WE do will change its course, it will burn through hosts Baclava Apr 2020 #21
It killed my maternal grandfather at 35. My mom was nine months old. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2020 #22
This message was self-deleted by its author librechik Apr 2020 #23
Yep customerserviceguy Apr 2020 #24

BigmanPigman

(51,250 posts)
2. If we did what S Korea did would could be
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 07:59 AM
Apr 2020

easing up by the summer but the moron won't do it. He is prolonging it, making it much worse in the end.

Ace Rothstein

(3,081 posts)
11. There's no way we continue what we are doing right now for 12-18 months.
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 09:59 AM
Apr 2020

The amount of death due to violence and economics would dwarf the disease at that point.

stillcool

(32,626 posts)
12. cure worse than the disease?
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 10:08 AM
Apr 2020

we'll be dead anyway, might as well make some money if you don't have to mingle among the diseased masses.

Ace Rothstein

(3,081 posts)
13. There is a definitely a point where you'll be able to say the cure is worse than the disease.
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 10:15 AM
Apr 2020

I just have no idea when that is and I'm glad I'm not making the call. I also don't trust the dipshit in charge to make the call at the right point. Him saying the cure is worse than the disease at the beginning of this thing was completely moronic but not unexpected.

Calculating

(2,950 posts)
17. Exactly
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 10:41 AM
Apr 2020

We'd be looking at the greatest depression, and the sheer number of suicides, violent deaths, and ruined lives alone would blow away anything the virus is capable of. This CAN NOT continue for a year or more. We need to get stuff to about 80% of normal again with mandatory orders to wear face masks in public and a huge public awareness campaign. Particularly vulnerable people can stay safe at home if they need to, but the rest of us want to get back to work.

madville

(7,395 posts)
5. A month or two more at the most
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 08:05 AM
Apr 2020

Then some tough decisions will have to be made. I think eventually high-risk people (elderly, immune compromised, etc) will have to observe strict isolation and stay at home orders while the rest of the country goes back to its normal routine the best it can and gets the economy back on its feet. That could be the best way to transition back to normalcy.

I don't think the pressure to reopen everything will come from where we expect either. I think it will be the millions of people on the verge of losing their homes and vehicles and businesses that will demand things reopen before they lose everything.

Building field hospitals isn't a bad idea if there are medical professionals to staff them, that's the biggest problem. You can't produce an ICU nurse in a two week crash course, that takes years of training.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,672 posts)
14. When
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 10:20 AM
Apr 2020

When you add those with diabetes, hypertension, and obesity to the elderly you're literally including nearly half the population. That's a lot of people you're asking to stay home.

Calculating

(2,950 posts)
18. So do we just keep the country closed for a year?
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 10:42 AM
Apr 2020

Because they're saying that a vaccine won't come much sooner than that.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,672 posts)
20. The answer to that is beyond my ken.
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 10:45 AM
Apr 2020

We aren't close to panic yet. That will occur when there are crying children on tv who say ma or pa were "triaged" out of a ventilator.

Squinch

(50,301 posts)
6. This isn't going to obey our whims of "six more weeks." It will take what it takes.
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 08:07 AM
Apr 2020

And your list of what we need for the next six weeks? None of that is going to happen.

We are all on our own. All of us. This will be what it is. It will not follow any rules we put to it. Prepare as well as you can and isolate as well as you can. If you get sick, nurse yourself as well as you can.

That is all we can do. There will be no help. Stop looking for it.

BUT also know this: it was all avoidable. We had the structure in place to deal with this. Filthy Donnie and his acolytes dismantled it, spread the virus, and caused this disaster.

Generic Brad

(14,248 posts)
8. Realistically?
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 08:29 AM
Apr 2020

Through August. Then when we do go back to work, it flares up again a few months later. Until we have a vaccine this cycle will keep repeating.

MacKasey

(964 posts)
9. There has to be a blood test for the antibodies
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 08:47 AM
Apr 2020

Every one gets tested to see if they have already had it

Since the U.S. only started testing in March, who knows how many people were sick and have recovered or have died from it

 

greenjar_01

(6,477 posts)
15. We're going to have to clear the peaks in the hospitals
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 10:23 AM
Apr 2020

May 15 for areas now hard hit, later for other areas. Or, roll the dice with a million dead, some just laid out in the street.

Your choice.

Calculating

(2,950 posts)
19. I'd say we can handle another month or two
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 10:44 AM
Apr 2020

After that, things will start to get VERY bad in a hurry. I'm talking violence, riots, mass suicides and domestic violence, great depression 2.0 level bad. People cannot take this much longer, economically OR mentally.

 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
21. The virus is in charge of that, nothing WE do will change its course, it will burn through hosts
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 10:46 AM
Apr 2020

Just like the 1918 flu, it came out of nowhere and killed 550,000 Americans in 10 months then disappeared. That one killed the most in the 21-29 age group though, those with strongest immune responses were killed fastest, unlike this one. But we have many more old an sick being targeted now, no telling how long it will take.

Did U watch the PBS show on the 1918 flu? Nothing they did stopped it, it spread like wildfire and nothing they tried mattered, masks didn't matter, big cities hit the hardest, government in denial the whole time, from the beginning, eerily similar. Herd immunity finally ended it they said.

'I had a little bird, it's name was Enza
I opened up the window and in flew Enza'

Children's playground song - 1918


Response to Amishman (Original post)

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