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Massacure

(7,517 posts)
1. I want that doctor's crystal ball
Mon Apr 6, 2020, 11:06 PM
Apr 2020

Don't get me wrong, it's entirely possible COVID-19 will still be around in 18 months; but right now there are more unknowns than knowns.

OAITW r.2.0

(24,446 posts)
3. 18 months sounds right.
Mon Apr 6, 2020, 11:07 PM
Apr 2020

Unless we get serious and surrender to superior medical intelligence. It is that simple.

dchill

(38,467 posts)
5. It could easily be longer...
Mon Apr 6, 2020, 11:15 PM
Apr 2020

...as long as our federal government is converted into a deliberate death merchant.

SWBTATTReg

(22,100 posts)
4. Oh yeah, this is not surprising...some are predicting that this will become something like the ...
Mon Apr 6, 2020, 11:08 PM
Apr 2020

annual flu that hits every year. I hope not. Perhaps if we can change the steepness of the upwards trend of the CV cases, we can get a break and during the duration between breaks (or relatively smaller outbreaks, regional in nature), we can develop vaccines etc. to deal w/.

 

smirkymonkey

(63,221 posts)
7. Noooo!
Mon Apr 6, 2020, 11:26 PM
Apr 2020

How can we go on like this? We can't see family or friends for over a year? Mine aren't local so I have to travel. That's a little hard to take.

pnwmom

(108,973 posts)
10. That's what they've always said -- that the outbreak may finally end only
Mon Apr 6, 2020, 11:43 PM
Apr 2020

with the use of a vaccine, which could take 18 months at a minimum.

pat_k

(9,313 posts)
11. Yes, there will likely be "waves" after this one, but unlike this, which we were...
Mon Apr 6, 2020, 11:46 PM
Apr 2020

... completely unprepared for -- and were incredibly slow to do anything about -- by the time we face the possible (likely) next wave, we will have a testing infrastructure for identifying cases, tracing, and more targeted quarantine, we'll have learned a lot and be able to treat with more success. In all likelihood, we will have the means to test for antibodies, so will know who is immune, and who can donate "convalescent plasma" to treat those who become seriously ill. PPE will be far more readily available. We'll have more ventilators and ICU beds in place. On and on.

He probably said 18 months because that is the timeline for a vaccine. In the meantime, there are other treatments, with convalescent plasma being the most promising (if an infrastructure is set up that makes enough available -- and I believe it can be).

Don't freak.



dugog55

(296 posts)
12. I would say the only thing that is going to stop
Mon Apr 6, 2020, 11:51 PM
Apr 2020

this virus from having flare ups for a couple of years is a vaccine. Until people can be inoculated to become immune, it will only take a handful of infected people to start the roller coaster again. They are already talking about a second wave. Until we know that everyone is immune, lifting social distancing or quarantines, we will be subject to wave after wave.

crickets

(25,960 posts)
13. 18 months has been the very optimistic timeline estimate for a vaccine.
Mon Apr 6, 2020, 11:52 PM
Apr 2020

The virus itself may have other plans. Or not, depending on how we handle it.

Moostache

(9,895 posts)
14. Did anyone think social distancing would STOP this?
Tue Apr 7, 2020, 12:05 AM
Apr 2020

Social distancing and lock down isolation only slows the SPREAD to avoid over-running the entire healthcare system at once...the transmission of the virus, its lethality and the rate it moves through exposed populations is unchanged by the current path...

We are not beating the virus right now, we are doing two things - trying to save lives by saving the healthcare system (or what is going to be left of it in large urban areas and small rural ones) and hoping to gain enough herd immunity to make the outbreaks serious but not existential threats to society...

That's it...and the price is excruciating already with worse yet to come...and an evil, demented clown in charge to boot.

This thing is going to break on us like waves on a beach...we are merely hoping to have enough survive and become immune to be the rocks on that beach and not the sand, easily pulled out to sea. Elevated risk is a permanent part of the human condition and this is not the last emerging virus out there, which really scares me even more (I thought the limits were in sight, turns out I was being optimistic...

dalton99a

(81,433 posts)
15. Wuhan - where it all began - is supposed to lift their lockdown on Wednesday April 8
Tue Apr 7, 2020, 12:17 AM
Apr 2020

Pretty sure there will be flare-ups, which will be brutally suppressed


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