CA 25 (Katie Hill's District) Moves from Lean Democratic To Toss Up

[jorgevlorgan]

Christy Smith is a great candidate, but could very well lose to Navy Vet Mike Garcia. If you can spare some change or time, I'm sure it would help.

California, during a pandemic, would be an unlikely place and time for a GOP upset. After all, Republicans haven't picked up a seat in the state since 1998 and most voters aren't enamored with President Trump's handling of the crisis. In fact, Trump's approval rating has barely budged since November 2018, when Democrat Katie Hill ousted GOP Rep. Steve Knight by seven points in California's 25th district.

But a month out from the May 12 all vote-by-mail special election to replace Hill, both parties view the race between Democratic state Assemblywoman Christy Smith and Republican former Navy fighter pilot Mike Garcia as a nailbiter.

This is a rare case in which both parties ended up with solid, impressive candidates who are straight out of central casting for the district. The 25th CD takes in northern Los Angeles County, including Santa Clarita, and has recently trended blue: four years after voting for Mitt Romney, it voted for Hillary Clinton 50 percent to 43 percent and registered Democrats now outnumber Republicans 38 percent to 32 percent.

To put Garcia's challenge in perspective, Republicans don't hold a single House seat in the country where Clinton received an absolute majority of the vote. But the 25th CD, with its reputation as a bedroom community for police and firefighters, has an independent streak and a considerable defense/aerospace industry. And so far, Garcia's biography appears to be resonating beyond the GOP base.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/california-house/ca-25-race-replace-katie-hill-moves-lean-democratic-toss

[msongs]

1. police + firefighters. bad demographics for progressive nt

[jorgevlorgan]

2. a 6 point registration advantage, and a district clinton won handily

Tells another story. But it wont be easy, just as it wasn't last time.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I'm in Brad Sherman's district, the district next door. CA 25 is more conservative

But not conservative enough to help Garcia. The election is on 5/12. Trump's approval will be even lower than it is now and that will hurt Garcia.

I'm not worried.

[jorgevlorgan]

4. I'm in CA 25, and we are being bombarded with anti Christy Smith ads on every commercial break and .

online. You might be too... For every pro Smith, there are 3 or 4 anti Smith ads -often back to back.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. She needs to make Donald Trump that clown's running mate.

[jorgevlorgan]

6. agreed

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. The LA times did a poll of LA County residents and only 38% of them approved of his rona approach.

I know some of CA25 is Ventura County but we should win this.

[jorgevlorgan]

8. Even if we lose it in May, I think there will be a good chance she can pull off a win in November.

But yeah, witihin the last few years, a lot more LA folks like myself have moved to this district for the more affordable housing, making it more liberal. Kinda like the IE.

[Xolodno]

9. She's being hammered by adds from the GOP...

...and wait for it, painting her as being against teachers and schools, etc. Basically not a Democrat. And the odd thing is, Mike Garcia isn't even mentioned.

Sounds like they are just trying to put her in a very negative light so you default to the Republican.

[jorgevlorgan]

10. I noticed that too.

The actual substance of the ads though, like her voting for AB5, just makes me want to support her more...