WaPo: Why Joe Biden needs Elizabeth Warren

[whathehell]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/20/joe-biden-is-undistinguished-he-needs-elizabeth-warren-level-up/

[Dem4Life1102]

1. While she would help attract progressives

to the ticket, she won’t help flip any swing states or help to energize the African American vote.

[kcr]

2. Not according to some latest polls

Even Michigan and Wisconsin. https://www.axios.com/vice-president-women-color-warren-poll-biden-c75d2901-aead-424c-a5b1-a987ab312c6c.html

The media has been on fire over Warren lately, praising her as Biden's must-pick, particularly since she emphatically said she'd accept his offer. She's Biden's clear choice.

[Celerity]

5. here is the graphic

[Dem4Life1102]

8. Not what those polls

They are just a VP preference polls and Biden is already polling well in both of those states. What about Florida? What about North Carolina? What about Virginia? Michigan and Wisconsin won’t make a difference if Biden loses all of the other three.

[thesquanderer]

21. Biden is polling much better in Virginia than in Michigan or Wisconsin.

And as for "Michigan and Wisconsin won’t make a difference if Biden loses all of the other three," Hillary won Virginia but she really could have used a boost in Michigan and Wisconsin.

I think our biggest focus needs to be MI, WI, PA, because I think all the Hillary 2016 states are almost a given for Biden, and those are potentially the three easiest to swing back.

[Dem4Life1102]

22. One point better

In Virginia he is up by 10 and Michigan by 9 point.

Wisconsin has 10 electoral vote. Pennsylvania 20. Michigan 16. That is a total of 46.

Florida has 29. North Carolina has 15 and Virginia 13. Total of 57.

So in what world does 46 beat 57?

[thesquanderer]

23. I'm seeing different numbers.

RCP average, Biden is only up by 4.4, not by 9.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html

re: "So in what world does 46 beat 57?"

46 and 57 are not important numbers. The only important number is 270. All Hillary's states plus Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania wins the presidency, even without Florida or North carolina, and would probably be the path of least resistance.

Or to put it differently, 46 can beat 57, if you can actually get the 46 with more certainty than you can get the 57. As long as the 46 is still enough to get you to the 270 mark.

[Dem4Life1102]

24. You should look at this

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/

All of Clinton's states plus Florida and North Carolina gets to 276. And if you want to energize the African American vote in places like Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee plus help flip Florida and North Carolina; there are better choices.

[thesquanderer]

25. I think that 538 page doesn't mean what you think it does.

A *single* poll shows that 9 point advantage.

It doesn't matter that it's the most recent one, a single recent poll is not as good as an aggregate of recent polls. So if you're going to direct to that 9 point lead in the most recent poll, you have to do it at least in the context of the fact that the other polls this month (on that same page) show a zero point lead and a 3 point lead (with the latter being from the most highly rated of the polls). So it would be a mistake to conclude Biden is actually leading by 9 points based on that page.

re:

All of Clinton's states plus Florida and North Carolina gets to 276

227+29+15 = 271, not 276.

All of Clinton's states plus Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania comes to 273.

Either combination hits 270 and wins. Which path do you think will be easier to achieve? I would say the latter, because that's where the margins were most razor thin last time.

[Dem4Life1102]

26. The path that wins as many states as possible

Which is why African Americans need to come out in the same numbers that they did for Obama.

[thesquanderer]

27. re: "The path that wins as many states as possible"

Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (3) is more states than Florida and NC (2).

And yes, there is an argument that more states is better, if it means coattail victories in 3 states rather than 2.

But my own metric is to focus on the states that most likely, most easily get you to the 270 threshold. The number of states you take to do it is secondary. But sure, once you've got the 270, the more states, the better!

[Dem4Life1102]

28. And if you want to win those states

Last edited Wed Apr 22, 2020, 07:49 AM - Edit history (1)

African Americans will need to come out in Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh in the same numbers that they did for Obama.

[dugog55]

3. I know for a fact there are thousands if not

millions of young progressive Democrats that are totally pissed at the DNC for what they think is the second railroading of Bernie Sanders. They may not vote at all and some of them will vote for Trump as they are that angry at the DNC. I really think Biden needs a true progressive as a running mate.

The young people are not wrong a number of accounts. First and most important is Climate Change which has to be met full force in the next Administration. We have been kicking that can down the road for 25 years and the need to act is now. No half measures, full blown new green deal if we are to have any semblance of a planet left in 20 or thirty years. The writing is on the wall.

Also, income inequality, decent paying jobs with benefits, stronger social safety net, medicare for all and some sort of financial relief for student loan debt. My son went to Veterinary School starting in 2006 at about $40K a year. Some of his loans were over 8%. He had a hard time just paying off the interest, and now owes over $200K. I am not in a good position to help, and getting an education should not place one in debtors prison for the rest of their life. That would apply to anyone that goes to school for a Doctorate, Lawyer or other profession that requires additional schooling.

I think Biden and the DNC is making a huge mistake not going after the next two generations of Democrats with a progressive Vice President. Biden is a solid choice, but he still thinks he can work with Republicans and get things done. Eight years of Obama should have proven that completely wrong.

[Dem4Life1102]

9. If they don't vote or vote for Trump

they lose the right to call themselves progressives. They will have proven that they don’t really care about any of the issues you mentioned. And that they just want to sit on their high horse and feel superior.

[whathehell]

12. Warren is a progressive.

and the closest candidate to Bernie in the entire presidential lineup. Bernie supporters who object to her as a VP pick have a lot of explaining to do.

[Happy Hoosier]

17. And yet, the ones who won't vote for Biden....

... are the ones who called Warren a snake. Some people are idiots and cannot be reasoned with.

[whathehell]

18. I take your word for it on the first statement...

and agree wholeheartedly with you on the second.

[The Magistrate]

19. One Problem Among Many With This Line, Sir

Is the idea that how people think and vote in their twenties is the same as how they will think and vote in their forties.

Usually they do not. With the exception of mental fossils like Sanders, who does remain largely stuck in his campus Marxist mindset, people grow and develop. They have marriages, children, careers. They reach mature understanding of the world and their place in it. They come to have something to lose.

The people you refer to as the next generations of the Party's voters are not going to change the Democratic Party into some 'further left' agglomeration. They are going to be, twenty, thirty years on, looking at youths posturing as radicals, and shaking their heads and saying, 'Kid, grow the fuck up....'

The calculus remains the same. Anyone who does not vote against the christo-fascist right prevents any possibility of progress in a left direction, and puts at risk all progress ever achieved in a left direction since Roosevelt's New Deal itself. People who cannot see this, or refuse to see this, constitute a left auxiliary of the Republican Party.


"Defeat of a hated enemy is something to be for."

[jaysunb]

4. Pick her and we get a Republican replacement. Nt

[Celerity]

6. only for a few months, unless you think Baker runs for Senate (and that is not a sure thing from any

angle.) The loser of the Kennedy/Markey race would be the odds-on favourite to win her seat.

[jaysunb]

7. Okay. Nt

[LakeArenal]

10. I disagree.

[whistler162]

13. Well it is about the only way Trump

will win reelection!

<SARCASN> Hey... I have a great idea! Let us run two septuagenarians for the highest office in the middle of a health crisis!</SARCASM>

[McCamy Taylor]

14. She is a great speaker. Agree!

She is all about "positivism" like Joe, but she has the ability to criticize Trump as well. I also like Kamala Harris for the job, however I am afraid that she comes across as a prosecutor which is less "positive". Warren comes across as a "can do" school principle--the one that never left a student behind. She would be "mom" to Joe's "dad".

[DFW]

15. This article is just one in a series, not a news article or the Post's opinion.

It could just as well be about "why chocaholics need chocolate," or "why beef lovers need Lawry's."

[whathehell]

16. So what if it's 'one in a series'?

Since when does that make it a non-article or anything as absurdly unrelated as "chocolate and chocaholics"?

You're free to disagre with the opinion expressed, but in the future, you may want to stay on topic -- Just a thought.

[DFW]

20. Here's what

They are running similar articles promoting Klobuchar, Harris, and a few etc. It carries no more weight than any of the others except with angry people who are promoting one VP choice or another.

[whathehell]

29. Yes, that's stated,

Last edited Wed Apr 22, 2020, 04:51 AM - Edit history (1)

and again, so what?

The series describes the perceived advantages to Biden of each of the contenders.

Why would anyone need to be "angry" to express a preference for one or another? The only one angry here seems to be you.