Sweden had no lockdown but its economy is expected to suffer just as badly as its European neighbors

[Quixote1818]

CNBC
PUBLISHED THU, APR 30 20206:25 AM EDT UPDATED THU, APR 30 20207:31 AM EDT
Holly Ellyatt


Sweden has attracted global attention for not imposing a full lockdown, as seen in most of Europe, to contain the coronavirus pandemic.

Nonetheless, data released from the country’s central bank and a leading Swedish think tank show that the economy will be just as badly hit as its European neighbors, if not worse.

Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, gave two possible scenarios for the economic outlook in 2020, which it said “depend on how long the spread of infection continues and on how long the restrictions implemented to slow it down are in place.” Both possible economic outcomes are bleak.

In the first scenario (scenario A in the chart below), gross domestic product contracts by 6.9% in 2020 before rebounding to grow 4.6% in 2021. In a more negative prediction (scenario B), GDP could contract by 9.7% and a recovery could be slower with the economy growing 1.7% in 2021.

More: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

[Quixote1818]

1. I am also not buying that they are close to 30% herd immunity

With 10 million people in Sweden and this virus seems to kill about .5% who get it, then they would lose around 30,000 people once 60% of the population get it. With less than 3,000 deaths so far, they are probably closer to 8 or 10% of the population being exposed. 60% herd immunity would take them another six 8 to 12 months.

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. The claim about "close to herd immunity" is for the Stockholm region

where most of the deaths have been (1,428), and which has a population of about 2.4 million, and their estimate is that by now about 26% of them have caught it. That would mean about 620,000 in the county have caught it; so the current deaths are 0.23% of that. But deaths happen a couple of weeks after the time when people are infected; so that could be compatible with an eventual 0.5% fatality rate.

For comparison:
Stockholm County pop. 2.38 million; area 2,517 sq. miles; pop. density 940/sq. m.; deaths 1,428; deaths/million 595.
Rhode Island pop. 1.06 milion; area 1,034 sq. miles; pop. density 1021/sq. m.; deaths 296; deaths/million 280
Massachusetts pop. 6.79 million; area 7,800 sq. m.; pop. density 871/sq. m.; deaths 3,716; deaths/million 544