Trump's Re-Election Chances Are Dwindling

[babylonsister]

https://politicalwire.com/2020/06/02/trumps-re-election-chances-are-dwindling/

Trump’s Re-Election Chances Are Dwindling
June 2, 2020 at 8:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard

Jonathan Bernstein: “After a month of bad news, President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have taken another hit. He’s in serious trouble for re-election.”

“Most of the damage is on the disapproval side. On May 1, Trump was at 43.3% approval and 50.7% disapproval, according to the estimate at FiveThirtyEight, which is based on an adjusted average of all the polls out there. Now? Although his approval is down just a bit, to 42.9%, his disapproval is up another three percentage points and sits at 53.6%. Two months ago, Trump was getting his best approval numbers since his brief honeymoon; now, he’s lost all of that and is back to where he’s been for most of the past two years.”

“As was the case last month, that means that his numbers resemble those of the last two elected presidents to be defeated for a second term, George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter. He’s solidly behind Barack Obama and George W. Bush, both of whom won re-election in reasonably contested efforts, and far behind landslide winners Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.”

[underpants]

1. But he STRONG

Yesterday he show strong. Manly. Not bunker boy like everyone saying.

[global1]

2. With Re-Election Hopes Fading What Would Trump Stoop To .....

doing to get those numbers to turn around? How desperate is he and the Repugs? The Repugs have been pretty silent during this whole Floyd murder incident. Very few comments by them of Trump's handling of situation. Circling the wagons again? Hmmmm.....

[SoonerPride]

3. He is scared and cornered. They know they are going down and are freakign out

All the republicans see the writing on the wall.

Their reign of terror is coming to an end.

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

4. If the current polling continues, an intelligent Republican would abandon Trump

Any high-profile GOP figure to turn on Trump now will be in a good position for the Presidency in 2024. Of course they shouldn’t be, having endorsed his behaviour up to this point, but the general public has a short memory when it comes to depraved Republican politicians.

I don’t want to come over all conspiratorial, but I’ll worry about what they’re cooking up if the polling continues to look as it does today and none of them abandon ship.

[empedocles]

5. That 42.9 or 40% needs to come down - then some more progress will be made

[Blasphemer]

8. I agree.

With him holding support in the low 40s, the GOP's ability to hold onto the Senate depends on not pissing his true believers off. They won't abandon him until that number craters significantly. Plus, I can imagine that there are voters who won't vote for Trump but will vote for down ticket republicans.

[moose65]

7. I've thought about that a lot

You'd think there would be some opportunistic Republican asshole who would realize that they could "save" their sorry party by coming forward to be the anti-Trump. That person would certainly generate a lot of buzz and the press would probably fawn all over them. Romney has tried to test the waters, but he hasn't gone full anti-Trump yet, even though I don't think it would hurt him. Utah is one of the states where Trump isn't as popular among Republicans - Mormons don't have a lot of tolerance for sinners like Trump.

I hope that this doesn't happen, though, and that the majority of Republicans follow Trump off a cliff. I will never forgive them for enabling Trump and then doing nothing to put a check on him.

[Amishman]

6. I've been enjoying watching the betting markets swing on PredictIt

up $1000 right now Thank you Joe Biden!

[sarisataka]

9. He has gone all-in holding a pair of 9s

Can he win? Definitely, if the cards go his way but it isn't the strongest hand.

His bet is that by claiming law and order, if the civil unrest stops he can claim credit (regardless of what he actually does to stop it) a say he is the savior of the country. If the violence continues far into the election cycle, his position continually erodes.

In a way he has almost made Biden irrelevant. He is betting his re-election on this one issue. There will me more points and debates of course, foreign policy, economy, etc, but law and order will be the deciding factor.

Ironically he now has the Democratic mayors and Governors working for him. As they quell the violence (which they cannot ignore) it improves his position as the person who pushed these "weak" leaders to action.

The wild card in the deck- does he push his threats of using the military too far that the rumbling of GOP leadership turn to opposition. If so that could cause a split within the party. Recent history indicates that is unlikely.