If you believe in the wisdom of the crowd theory Susan Rice has pulled into the lead at predictit

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5883/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-vice-presidential-nomination

[50 Shades Of Blue]

1. I hope not.

[rurallib]

2. I am with you - we need someone who has at least been elected to something

[50 Shades Of Blue]

8. Yes - and that's only one of her minuses AFAIC.

I know they all have pluses and minuses, but IMO her minuses are insurmountable.

[USALiberal]

16. List 3 or 4! nt

[50 Shades Of Blue]

22. Nahh

[USALiberal]

23. I figured that! nt

[50 Shades Of Blue]

24. Go try to bait somebody else.

[Clash City Rocker]

3. She'd be strong on foreign policy

[Fiendish Thingy]

7. And unfortunately a target for GOP attacks on Benghazi

As wrong as they are, it’s a distinct vulnerability along with Rice’s lack of elected office experience.

The VP’s number one function is to help the ticket win. Rice, despite her numerous qualifications, is not the strongest candidate to push the Dems over the top.

[lostnfound]

14. F*** Benghazi

Another example of GOP overselling a distorted story.
My first choice is Elizabeth Warren for the sake of the economy and overall diverse experience, but my second choice is Susan Rice because she is tough and smart as hell, and had Obama’s trust, and as an African American woman on the ticket she would reward our most loyal voters— black women — for their loyalty.

[Trumpocalypse]

17. Unfortunately the reality is

that Benghazi is a negative for Rice. She went on all the Sunday morning shows to say it was caused by a video. That turned out to be untrue. This was the sole reason she couldn’t be confirmed as Secretary of State.

[redstateblues]

4. Not in my book. Except for political junkies she is an unknown.

[4now]

5. She would be a great vice-president

[nolabear]

6. I noticed her presence in Jordan's little propaganda video.

Made me wonder if they weren’t trying to make a preemptive strike, just in case.

[barbtries]

9. Good news, she's my top choice.

I want Harris for AG and Warren for Senate Majority Leader.

of course I want a lot. I'll settle for a Biden win.

[lostnfound]

15. Omg I never thought of that -- Warren for SML.

That might be a great option. But I don’t know how that would happen. It’s not a political pick, it’s elected by the democratic senate caucus, correct?

[barbtries]

27. i think so.

We have to win the Senate for it to happen, and I think but am not certain that she has to run for it.

[Trumpocalypse]

20. Are Schumer and Durbin retiring?

If they aren’t there is no chance Warren will be Majority Leader.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Always difficult for me to evaluate shifts within this type of market

They happen abruptly via a handful of investors as opposed to public swarming.

In sports I normally know where the inside information came from. I have enough connections in Las Vegas who find out and relay to me. This I have no idea.

I hope it is accurate. I can rationalize Kamala Harris. I'd be overjoyed with Susan Rice. It would almost like we've turned the corner in terms of fearlessness and clarity. Harris would feel like scared and strategic.

[2naSalit]

11. Cool!

I hope she is the VP pick. She already knows what needs to be done to stop the bleeding. I couldn't care less whether she has held elected office or not, she has the qualifications, diplomatic skills and demeanor to hold any office and I hope she runs and wins in 2024.

Anyone who doesn't know about her should pay attention more.

[Laelth]

12. Wow!

At 7 cents, Karen Bass is a really good buy.

-Laelth

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Bass really dropped as Rice jumped

That seems to indicate some so-called wise guys unloaded their Bass shares and switched the money to Rice.

I always prefer predicting results to predicting somebody's opinion. That's all this is. I'm rooting for Rice but I'm not investing in it.

[Laelth]

29. Kamala is now trading at 51 cents.

Evidently the wise guys think they know something.



-Laelth

[Awsi Dooger]

30. Something about a peak at Biden's notes with Harris' name on top

That topic is all over the latest comments in that thread.

I always do best on Predictit when I ignore the comments. There are sharp guys there but tons of jackass right wingers

[Laelth]

31. Fascinating.

I have made that exact same error before. I predicted the person at the top of the list, after having seen the list, but I lost, big time, because the person at the top of the list WAS NOT the person with a check by their name.



-Laelth

[Laelth]

32. Kamala is now trading at 65 cents.

I say Karen Bass is a steal at 6 cents.

This market seems extraordinarily volatile to me.



-Laelth

[DFW]

18. If I believed in that, Biden would now be....

Supporting President Clinton’s re-election

[Awsi Dooger]

19. Harris is now the favorite again

Great reminder toward why I stay away from markets like that. I don't have a cheat sheet advantage like the ideological percentages.

These are great markets only if you can anticipate major price swings and lock up a profit no matter who is picked. I had friends in Las Vegas who specialized in that type of thing. Their theory was to continually make great bets based on the odds, whether you liked the team or not. I really should have done more of that. When I did it was successful. Tons of guys on Predictit operate that way. They take advantage of the overreaction and don't really care about the result. I remember the day Kavanuagh and his accuser testified the numbers were moving 30 and 40 cents from morning to afternoon.

[StevieM]

21. Apparently Kamala just pulled back into the lead.

I did see where Rice was briefly ahead.

It definitely seems like those two are the runaway favorites at this point.

[Awsi Dooger]

26. Harris jumped back ahead because of a Politico pre-write

Politico had a pre-written blurb dated August 1 with quotes from Biden on why he selected Harris. This is very standard procedure. It's just like obituaries of prominent people written well in advance, so it's plug and play once the news breaks.

But the wagering geniuses on Predictit don't know anything about pre-writes so they used the Politico blurb as if it were an actual leak. That's why the price shifted. Read all the comments below the price table and you can see the hilarity within.

Those sites are not nearly as sophisticated as the sports betting realm I am accustomed to. Nate Silver made a wisecrack tweet two days ago about the political markets being out of whack. But that's the beauty of it because there are many bargains.

[totodeinhere]

25. She has not held elective office before as far as I know.

The Biden campaign is going to emphasize that the ticket has necessary experience, unlike Trump who never held elective office before. I think that the VP will be a senator or a governor.

[Demsrule86]

28. Val Demmings will be the one because she helps with Florida.

[muriel_volestrangler]

33. Well, that's now totally changed - I don't think there's any wisdom of a crowd there

Harris 62, Rice 24, Warren 6, Bass 6, Demings 5, Duckworth 4.

Anything that changeable must be just a few punters messing around with no idea apart from social media.