Alan Lichtman has spoken

[mitch96]

This history professor from DC has predicted presidential wins since 1984.
Spoiler alert...... Biden wins.. Previous predictions is no guarantee of future performance but his track record is pretty good
YMMV
m

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/05/opinion/2020-election-prediction-allan-lichtman.html?surface=most-popular&fellback=false&req_id=132427065&algo=top_conversion&imp_id=244957957

[Sherman A1]

1. Good news

I hope it comes to pass.

[CaptYossarian]

2. In spite of Vlad and the Diebold voting machines.

On a level playing field, which state would Trump win?

[mercuryblues]

3. I'm waiting on the Chia Pet poll

[bucolic_frolic]

4. Gurus on a roll make me nervous

but what do I know? I don't see Biden as uncharismatic. I see him as competent, patriotic, the essence of American government. His record has very few off-key moments, and his staff has consistently messaged middle of the road to the point where you just say "he's normal". In that respect he's like Pelosi and Hoyer - long term incumbents who truly understand their job, constituents, the system. These are icons of good government.

[Jillgirl]

5. Good news!

But Lichtman also warned that his system does not take cheating into account.

We are still deep in the woods.