Trump Has Just a 2% Chance of Winning Most Votes, 10% Chance of Winning Electoral College
An election forecast updated Friday by The Economist said President Donald Trump has a 10 percent chance of winning more electoral votes than presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election.
The forecast also estimated Trump has a 2 percent chance of winning more of the popular vote than Biden. According to Friday's projections, Trump will win an estimated 45.5 percent of the popular vote on November 3.
The paper's forecast is updated daily with information compiled from national polls, state polls and other factors that demonstrate how much support each politician has and how developing situations impact those support levels. It was created in collaboration with political scientists Andrew Gelman and Merlin Heidemanns of Columbia University. According to the paper, the Electoral College simulation built into its forecast maps out thousands of election scenarios in an effort to improve the overall predictions.
The forecast updated Friday predicted Biden will win between 222 and 434 electoral votes, while Trump will win between 104 and 316. With 270 votes needed to win, The Economist's model said there is less than a 1 percent chance that Biden and Trump will reach an Electoral College tie.
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