Between Jan 1st, 2016 and Aug 12, 2016, Trump led Hillary in 15 national polls.
Without a doubt, Hillary was the favorite four years ago, but there was a clear sign Trump could win - in fact, 15 national polls had him up in that span. Yes, national polls are irrelevant and Hillary won the popular vote. However, it shows there was an appetite for Trump, no matter how narrow, and that he was at least a threat.
Since January 1st, Trump has led Biden nationally in one poll - an Emerson poll from February.
That to me is the biggest indicator that this isn't 2016. Trump has not proven at all in 2020 that he's capable of garnering that level of support he saw in 2016. 15 polls told us there was at least a decent level of appeal for Trump four years ago.
Only one poll, all the way back in February, tells us that this go around.
Does this mean this election is a given? No. Work like hell to make sure it happens.
But Trump is an incumbent now. His brand is more known today than four years ago. It's much harder for an incumbent to change their perception than a challenger. There has been no level of evidence that shows Trump has been able to change that perception. In 2016, that perception for both candidates seemed to change by the week.
In fact, 2020 is proving right now to be the most consistent campaign in terms of polling advantage since Bill Clinton's reelection in 1996.
That's pretty significant.
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