It's mind blowing that Trump and Biden are virtually tied in Minn.

[MrScorpio]

At this point, I'm a loss to explain why Trump is being cut so much slack.

This should not be happening at all.

[Cirque du So-What]

1. Which poll?

Perhaps it’s an outlier.

[MrScorpio]

4. This one.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/512976-trump-and-biden-tied-in-minnesota-poll

[uponit7771]

11. That's a C- poll from 538, they over polled 45 - 65 yr old whites by nearly 60%. Biden is slightly

... ahead in that poll which makes me feel better that Biden is competitive among Trumps base

[BannonsLiver]

2. It would be even more amazing if it was true

[lagomorph777]

8. Trafalgar Group is not rated at 538

[PTWB]

3. The MAGATs in MN are really scared at how forcefully we pushed back...

When George Floyd was murdered.

[bookghostwriter]

5. Biden campaign strategy

Yes, it's a reality that we need to face. In 2016, Trump targeted the blue states Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Those will be much tougher for him now, so he is targeting blue states like Minnesota and Nevada. Biden-Harris need to get out there in places like Minnesota and appear in safe, socially-distanced in-person events.

[BumRushDaShow]

22. PA is not a "blue state"

it is a "purple state", where Philly turnout can usually flip it blue. In 2016, many RW loon previous non-voters or first time voters, actually woke up. But they promptly went back to sleep when it came time to re-elect our Democratic governor. The state legislature is (thanks to creative gerrymandering) all-GOP with a Democratic governor and even before that, the legislature was generally split and this state has usually "rotated" parties for governor.

You do get (or maybe not?) that when these people travel, there is a whole cadre (including Secret Service) that have to go.

Trump has ALREADY had multiple Secret Service personnel as well as staffers and surrogates infected with COVID-19 due to those in-person, and more often than not, maskless "events". See Herman Cain as an example.

The issue isn't so much being "socially-distanced" but how an event, if any are even permitted, will have rules and guidelines that vary state by state, or even if such is ALLOWED.

[rurallib]

6. I know what you mean. We sit below Minnesota

and the race is tight here also. This in a state where our farmers have been fucked over six ways to Sunday by the orange asshole. The only thing I can guess is that they are so fearful of a penny rise in their taxes they would vote for Satan himself rather than any Democrat.

And apparently that is what they are about to do

[octoberlib]

20. I grew up in a farming state (Kansas) and you'd be surprised how many of them

vote Republican because everybody in their family always has. They don't research issues , campaign platforms etc and see who would benefit them most. It's "my great- great- great grandfather on down always voted Republican , so, I'm going to, too" . You would think Trump is so vile and has done so much damage to their world, it'd make them change. I'm sure they probably like Trump's racist rhetoric , too.

[uponit7771]

7. That's a C- poll 538 has Biden up outside of MOE in LV polling.

[lagomorph777]

15. Thanks! I couldn't find a rating. Glad to hear it's probably crap.

[maxrandb]

9. Cпасибо за заботу товарищ

[Polybius]

10. Minnesota is extremely unique during presidential elections

Republicans always come close in polls, but they always lose. Even Reagan in 1984.

[frazzled]

12. This map shows why

It's typical of many states, where the urban-rural divide often mirrors the Democratic-Republican split. The Twin Cities are solidly blue, the rest of the state pretty red:

[Blue Owl]

13. I had to drive across the state a few weeks ago

And was disappointed by the large number of Trump signs I saw in rural areas.

For some reason the farmers and small-town folks are proud of their moron, who is nothing like them, probably detests and looks down upon them, has no idea what their daily life is like, and would do anything to avoid speaking to them in person if the occasion would ever present itself.

[Nevilledog]

14. You can delete the "probably"

[Buckeye_Democrat]

17. Yes, but Ben Carson and the MyPillow guy said...

Last edited Fri Aug 21, 2020, 03:06 PM - Edit history (3)

... he was chosen by God to lead us! Not to mention the televangelists!



Edit:
About 65% of all white evangelicals live in the suburbs or rural areas. That's even more significant when you consider the much lower population densities for those areas. (Over 80% of all Americans live in urban areas according to the 2010 census.)

Evangelicals only account for about 10% of all urban dwellers.

https://religionnews.com/2019/07/30/why-do-evangelicals-support-trump-blame-the-suburbs/

Edit2:
Over time, it's become more and more clear to me that many people on DU don't really know much about the rural white evangelicals. Many of them aren't even hateful or racist. They're just "privileged" in the sense that several urban issues don't even cross their minds, so then it comes down to what the preachers tell them -- e.g., that allowing abortion and homosexuality is demonic.

[Demsrule86]

16. Link?

I don't believe it anyway.

[judeling]

18. I'd be worried if the down ballots showed the same.

But people do not understand just how swingy Minnesota really is.

But these last two polls (including the Emerson) are a bit of an outlier because quite frankly the Nasty Omar primary was really all the news and that was all one party. It's over and you can expect Biden to move back into a 10 point lead over the next two weeks.

[Thekaspervote]

19. 538 poll average for MI Biden 5.2

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/minnesota/

[octoberlib]

21. I want a bigger gap between Trump and Biden in PA. I think it was 4 points? Too close for me.

[regnaD kciN]

23. There have been four PA polls in the past ten days...

Two of them Biden+4, the other two Biden+9.

Still, I think we need to disabuse ourselves of the notion this is going to be some yuge blowout. Even with everything going our way, a “big” win is going to probably look like around a 53-46 margin nationally. We have to assume that Trump will win unless we work both hard and with intelligence.

[octoberlib]

24. Agree.