Everybody take a deep breath and calm down

[macwriter]

Last edited Sun Aug 30, 2020, 10:05 AM - Edit history (1)

*****UPDATED TODAY: USC DORNSIFE POLL -- BIDEN LEADS GROWS, TRUMP NUMBER DROPS
AUG 29 - BIDEN 53.53 - TRUMP 39.87

Now here's the MSM narrative: Biden is going to lose Wisconsin because of Kenosha. The race is tightening (because one poll says so). Michael Moore says we are going to repeat 2016.

Stop it, just stop it.

This past week was Trump's week -- for better or worse. He tied up the airwaves just as we did the week before. It's way too early to declare a bounce, a dribble or a gutterball. And it's not relevant because a bounce for either side doesn't last.

I take the temperature of the race once a week at the CBS News Battleground tracker. It updates all 50 states every Sunday. As of aug 23 update, Biden was leading in all battleground states with more then 50% of the votes (52 to 45 in Wisconsin, BTW). And he is at least 50 and leading in Georgia and Iowa. What's more, Ohio is split down the middle 49 - 49.

And in Texas, he's only behind 2 points.

Okay, I don't yet know what tomorrow's report will bring, but Biden isn't going to miraculously drop like a rock because of Trump's scare tactics and bluster.

The other thing I check daily, now, is the USC Dornsife daily national poll. Check it out.It looks like a flatline cardiogram with Biden up as of Aug 28- 52.8 to 40.5. It has hardly deviated since aug 17 when they first started publishing it.

And one more word about 2016 -- when Hillary was leading in the polls, the margins were smaller and she never broke 44 to 46 percent. And what was worse, 18 to 20 people remained undecided almost until election day. THis time there is only 6 percent of the voting population who are undecided. And more than 50 % of all voters have already decided they would NEVER vote for Trump.

In 2020, Trump not only has to pull another inside straight, he has campaign hard and put lots of money in Texas, Iowa and Ohio to hang on to those states to even have a chance to making that inside straight worth anything.

All Biden has to do is win everything Hillary did and get Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and game over. OR he can pick up Arizona and North Carolina, with Pannsylvania, instead. There are a half dozen paths to pick up 38 electoral votes. It's just 38 electoral votes, unless you believe that Biden, more popular than Hillary, won't capture the same states she did in 2016.

So everybody stop being so scared, because when you're scared you are demorlized and defeated. Vote and mobilize like your life and the life of this country depended on it, but don't succumb to fear.

Have faith in Biden and Harris to run a smart campaign. This ain't Joe's first rodeo. He's been in two successful national campaigns and has surrounded himself with great people. He delivered big time at the convention, he'll do it again.

Tune out the Sunday talk shows. It'll on;y make you crazy. I'm planning a walk in the park and curling up with a good book on a park bench -- mask on, of course.

[Thekaspervote]

1. Thx!! Great post, and yes I have a lot of faith in the strength of our campaign

Go Joe..go Kamala...we’ve got your back

[secondwind]

2. Thank you so much for this. I needed it.

[vercetti2021]

3. That's concern for ya

Its mostly because of these protests now. Giving trump the fuel he would need even though it's his own cult starting this mess.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

4. Well said, my dear macwriter!

I think you nailed it. All this worrying is not good for our nerves or our outlook in general.

Thank you!

[Walleye]

5. Joe has never lost in a general election

[Jirel]

6. Boom.

Running around with hair on fire does. nothing.

We have to ORGANIZE, vote, and advertise as if Joe is 10 points behind, and never let up. Getting hysterical or defeatist helps none of that.

[Yavin4]

7. If you're still scared, donate to Joe's campaigm

$5, $10, $20 whatever you can spare. That will make you feel better.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

8. This is refreshing. Too much gloom and doom going on lately.

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are in a good place right now. She is traveling safely to places they need to win. Kamala Harris is not someone to push around or trifled with. Pence and Trump will do that at their own peril because Kamala bites back with strength, conviction, and the facts. She was also magnificent on Thursday in her prebuttal. She got under Trump's skin.

Joe Biden will be out there, in a manner as safe as he can talking with voters about Health Care, Jobs, their financial futures, Social Security, Medicare, and more.. This pandemic has changed a lot of how things are done. Trump will spew his lies and people will believe them. I trust people with the brains to decipher the lies from the truth. The fact MORE Americans watched the DNC than the RNC can decide for themselves who is genuine and who is not.

Trump is lucky to have barely 40% of the electorate. Nor has he expanded his base beyond what he won with in 2016. That has been dwindling over the years. When the August, September, and October Jobs numbers come out to fully reflect how the Economy is doing, account for the millions filing for Unemployment, jobs that are not coming back, or are permanently lost now because this Pandemic is not under control, Trump is going to realize he is fighting a losing battle.

[betsuni]

9. K&R

[SunSeeker]

10. Thank you. nt

[BadgerMom]

11. K & R

Thank you. I agree with your take.

[Granny M]

13. Thank you, macwriter

I so needed to read this today.

[Wanderlust988]

16. Enough Zoom calls. Biden needs to be out talking to folks person to person

This is where he excels. We are in a national crisis. I know he's ahead in the polls, but the times call for him to be out and comforting people and talk about his policies and what he will do. These virtual calls with just supporters isn't going to cut it.

[obamanut2012]

21. "stupid"

nicccccce

[Sherman A1]

17. At this point the die is cast

Beyond voting as early and securely as we can, there isn’t much we really can do. So all the Sunday talk shows, the endless polls and the drivel that fills airtime on cable noise is pretty much irrelevant beyond adding to the stress of what is already a stressful world.

[MFM008]

18. I know

Im sick of the doomsday talk.
There haven't been any debates yet.
even though I don't think it would matter if there were.
I really think the Michael Moore and Susan Sarandon types will be sad if maggot doesn't win.
Just vote and know you have done your part.

[PCIntern]

19. Good post. Well done!

K and r

[shrike3]

20. Bravo. Thank you.

Other posts on here were making me nervous. Appreciate the optimism.

[crickets]

22. Excellent post. Kickin'. nt

[mcar]

23. It appears DU is well into "we're doomed, the Democrats suck" season

Thanks for this OP.

[FakeNoose]

24. I agree - we need to walk away from this

Even Joe Biden is on vacation until after Labor Day. Grain of salt, guys.
We'll survive this, but we need to keep our eyes on the prize.

[ooky]

25. I was looking at 538 last night and it seemed to look pretty good

with Joe leading in all the battleground states. Certainly no reason for anyone to panic. IMHO the main concern we have is GOTV, not the polls, and making sure that Trump's interference with the voting process isn't successful.

I think most people are already locked in at this point. It's all about the turnout now.

[Upward]

26. Moore IS Correct About the Enthusiam Among Trump Voters

It's a necessity that we turn out more.

[2golddogs]

27. 👍🏼

Thank you, I also needed a dose of this today.

[Blue Owl]

28. Let's keep fighting like hell for Joe/Kamala!