Found COVID false negative testing information (relates to Biden test results)

[Statistical]

"Over the 4 days of infection before the typical time of symptom onset (day 5), the probability of a false-negative result in an infected person decreases from 100% (95% CI, 100% to 100%) on day 1 to 67% (CI, 27% to 94%) on day 4. On the day of symptom onset, the median false-negative rate was 38% (CI, 18% to 65%). This decreased to 20% (CI, 12% to 30%) on day 8 (3 days after symptom onset) then began to increase again, from 21% (CI, 13% to 31%) on day 9 to 66% (CI, 54% to 77%) on day 21."

"Variation in False-Negative Rate of Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction–Based SARS-CoV-2 Tests by Time Since Exposure"

If Biden was exposed on Tuesday then day 4 would be Saturday evening but he gets tested in the morning so say Sunday morning. The expected median false negative rates would be 67% on Sunday, 38% on Monday, and falling to 20% by Thursday.

So if Biden doesn't develop symptoms or test positive by Monday he likely (80%+) doesn't have the disease. Either he never got infected or his body killed off any small viral load before it could replicate. By next Wednesday it is almost guaranteed (>99%) he doesn't have the disease if still symptom free with all negative tests.

[Squinch]

1. Informative and terrifying.

[soothsayer]

2. Joe will be fine.

[agingdem]

3. my grandson and his frat brother were both rapid tested a few weeks ago...

both came back negative but that evening the friend received a call from the doctor's office informing him that his negative was a false negative and yes he had it...so Joe would know today as well...

[Siwsan]

4. Joe said he was tested twice, today

Both came back as negative. No doubt he'll be tested pretty constantly for the duration of the danger period.

[Jarqui]

5. Good post.

Fingers crossed for Joe, his family and his team.

It also applies to the WH staff, Trump's family and all those who attended his recent campaign/fundraiser events, flew with him on AF 1, debate prepped Trump, and the 230 who attended the nomination of Amy Barrett in the Rose Garden (most without masks).

Due to their reckless, irresponsible behavior, in a few weeks, some who attended those events will have about as much to say about them as Herman Cain would now have to say about the Tulsa campaign event.