He probably is both sicker than they say, but has a much better chance at rapid recovery than most

[andym]

Hi is probably sicker based on the information coming out on what they are treating him with, as well as his known risk factors: age and obesity.

Why? He is getting treatment not generally available. He got the Regeneron antibody treatment which confers the equivalent humoral immune response to someone who made very high affinity neutralizing antibodies after three weeks of infection. That by itself should help immensely, because newly replicated and secreted virus particles trying to infect new cells will be neutralized by the antibodies and removed. Many in the biomedical community believe that Regeneron's and Lilly's antibody treatments will be game changers (expensive game changers). They are still in trials, but about 1 million doses might be ready by the end of the year.

That said, once Covid activates the body's own immune defenses, it it likely that the body will continue to fight and actually damage itself in the process by killing infected cells and their neighbors. That is why they have to give dexamethasone-- which is an immune suppressant. That is why Trump is still at some risk.

[Eliot Rosewater]

1. Yes, we wont get this treatment but the worst human on earth per earth, does.

[crimycarny]

2. And a human who wants to deny treatment from others

That’s what enrages me. The President will continue his battle to yank medical care away from everyone else. His experience with COVID won’t change that one bit. He’s literally incapable of empathy. Mentally ill.

[Eliot Rosewater]

8. YES and what most out there dont understand, ACA applies to EVERY SINGLE HEALTH INSURANCE

policy IN AMERICA other than Medicare and Medicaid.

So ALL OF YOU will LOSE coverage for COVID when preexisting is put back on as it will be considered such for everyone. Maybe not, but if left up to the FOR PROFIT insurance company, what do you THINK they will do

The GOP knows for every 10 Americans you kill or imprison or deport, 4 will always vote against them, 2 - 3 will and the rest dont vote.

NOT COMPLICATED

[Hortensis]

15. "In early July, Regeneron and the Trump administration signed a $450 million

pact for U.S. supply of the cocktail. As part of the deal, Regeneron agreed to ramp up manufacturing to 1.6 million doses of the therapy as early as the end of summer.

The drugmaker said the order covered anywhere between 70,000 to 300,000 treatment doses and 420,000 to 1.3 million preventive doses. Regeneron agreed to provide bulk and unfinished lots of the cocktail as well as finished doses through 2020.

If the FDA eventually grants an emergency authorization for either use, the government would make doses available at no cost and handle distribution."

https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/roche-regeneron-join-forces-to-more-than-triple-manufacturing-covid-19-antibody

This was as of August 19. Regeneron has also teamed up with Roche to meet huge production goals.

Obviously by July Trump understood that the Republican-advanced pandemic threatened to make him a private citizen.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

3. Yet when he recovers, he'll be spewing a lot of hateful nonsense about how getting the disease is

no big deal. People who die from it or suffer long term consequences are just suckers and losers.

God damn him and every single one of his enablers.

[BusyBeingBest]

5. The rest of us--workers, people with kids in school, people trying to live

their lives, some without health insurance or the savings to pay copays and deductibles--aren't going to get free top-notch treatment. It's recovery for his careless irresponsible ass, but medical darwinism for the rest of us.

[abqtommy]

4. It's my understanding that nobody who survives this virus has a "rapid recovery". They survive

but can expect major health problems for the rest of their lives.

[andym]

6. No, there are many who have a rapid recovery

many others might have major health problems like damage to the heart, etc.
It really depends how much damage the virus is able to do before the body gets it under control and how much collateral damage occurs.

See for example this
https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200603.471204/full/
Why Do Some Recover From COVID-19 Quickly, While Others Seem Likely To Face Long-Term Disability?

[EarlG]

7. The thing about those photos yesterday of him pretending to work

is that they've kinda set the expectation now that we should see more of them.

If he's doing as great as the docs said, then we should see new photos of him signing blank pieces of paper today.

If they can't even manage to stage a couple of photos for public release, that might say a lot.

[andym]

10. Yes-- they are creating a very rosy narrative

that will set expectations high. Reality, and the idiosyncrasies of a person's immune response to SARS-CoV-2 may interfere with their plans.

[crickets]

12. Yep. I think they may have pumped out most of the propaganda early, hoping for the best.

After this, there may be no more happy, busy pictures left and certainly no video. The lack of tweets alone is telling.

[octoberlib]

9. He's 74. Remisdivir doesn't work on everybody and monoclonal antibodies

have had no clinical effect on outcomes in the 100 people it's been tested on. Trump is good friends with the CEO of the company that makes it. Yes, the care he's getting might make for a better outcome but doctors aren't magicians so anything could happen at this point.

[andym]

11. Regeneron has positive preliminary clinical data for their treatment

https://investor.regeneron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regenerons-regn-cov2-antibody-cocktail-reduced-viral-levels-and



Regeneron's therapy is based on cell-synthesized polyclonocal antibodies btw.
September 29, 2020 at 4:01 PM EDT
Back
REGENERON'S REGN-COV2 ANTIBODY COCKTAIL REDUCED VIRAL LEVELS AND IMPROVED SYMPTOMS IN NON-HOSPITALIZED COVID-19 PATIENTS
TARRYTOWN, N.Y., Sept. 29, 2020 /PRNewswire/ --

Greatest improvements in patients who had not mounted their own effective immune response prior to treatment
more slowly in the absence of treatment.

Serological status at baseline also predicted how rapidly patients had alleviation of their COVID-19 clinical symptoms. In the untreated (placebo) patients, seropositive patients had a median time to alleviation of symptoms of 7 days, compared to seronegative patients who had a median time to alleviation of symptoms of 13 days.
REGN-COV2 rapidly reduced viral load through Day 7 in seronegative patients (key virologic endpoint). The mean time-weighted-average change from baseline nasopharyngeal (NP) viral load through Day 7 in the seronegative group was a 0.60 log10 copies/mL greater reduction (p=0.03) in patients treated with high dose, and a 0.51 log10 copies/mL greater reduction (p=0.06) in patients treated with low dose, compared to placebo. In the overall population, there was a 0.51 log10 copies/mL greater reduction (p=0.0049) in patients treated with high dose, and a 0.23 log10 copies/mL greater reduction (p= 0.20) in patients treated with low dose, compared to placebo.
Patients with increasingly higher baseline viral levels had correspondingly greater reductions in viral load at Day 7 with REGN-COV2 treatment. The mean log10 copies/mL reduction in viral load compared to placebo were as follows:
- Viral load higher than 105 copies/mL: high dose (-0.93); low dose (-0.86) (p=0.03 for both); approximately 50-60% reduction compared to placebo
- Viral load higher than 106 copies/mL: high dose (-1.55); low dose (-1.65) (p

[octoberlib]

16. Not according to epidemiologist Dr. Feigl-Ding

Link to tweet

?s=20

Link to tweet

?s=20

Link to tweet

?s=20







He has a better chance of recovery because of his exceptional medical care and access to drugs but none of these are wonder drugs. 1 in 4 patients on dexamethasone died in the UK RECOVERY trial.

[andym]

17. He is technically correct: so far no clinical statistical significance. Not the whole story

Though there is a very good looking "trend" the p values of 0.13 to 0.2293, do not meet the gold standard of being less than 0.05. But that doesn't mean they won't if the population group were larger-- more patients would be needed to be sure. If they were better they could seek immediate approval. So the "unproven" claim is correct, but somewhat disingenuous. It certainly DOES NOT MEAN it doesn't work.

That's why Regeneron posited that their results are very promising, but didn't move forward to immediately approve. This kind of data is very common in drug development.


The data for reducing viral load are better.


Look in this document where Dr. Feigl-Ding got his twitter data image from: https://investor.regeneron.com/static-files/a596a85e-e72d-4529-8eb5-d52d87a99070

The data for viral load production does reach statistical significance for the 8g but not he 2.4 g dose.
Look at the tables called NOMINALLY SIGNIFICANT 0.6 LOG REDUCTION IN VIRAL LOAD THROUGH DAY 7 (HIGH
DOSE VS. PBO) IN SERONEGATIVE POPULATION
and
NOMINALLY SIGNIFICANT 0.5 LOG REDUCTION IN VIRAL LOAD THROUGH DAY 7 (HIGH
DOSE VS. PBO) IN OVERALL POPULATION - IRRESPECTIVE OF BASELINE SEROSTATUS
There the p values for 8g dose are less than 0.05, which means they look statistically signficant.

So it reduces the viral load, which HAS to be a good thing. Keep in mind that the data are preliminary-- the more people in the trial the better the data will be.


Btw, there is the answer for Dr. Feigl-Ding's why they used the 8g dose-- it did reach "nominal" statistical significance in reducing viral load while 2.4g didn't, though clinically the 2.4g dose trended better.



ps-- the optimal drug dose may be 2.4g, but the drug did appear safe within statistical significance, his docs went with the higher dose because it was more "proven" (terrible word really when it comes to stats) than 2.4g in reducing viral load.

[octoberlib]

18. Thanks for the info! Reducing viral load is never bad.

[CrispyQ]

14. That's what I think, too.

However, I highly doubt he'll have a full recovery any time soon, if at all. I don't see him campaigning except maybe virtually, & it will be brief video, very brief. I wonder what kind of cocktail they had to give him to get him made up, dressed, & to prop him up at that desk with a pen in his hand this morning? I think very soon it will be apparent that he isn't even up to his usual schedule of tweeting and golfing.

In the meantime, didn't I read yesterday that Barr & Pompeo are searching for ways to get around that pesky succession line & just jump over Pence, Pelosi, & Grassley?