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Le Roi de Pot

(744 posts)
Tue Oct 6, 2020, 05:52 PM Oct 2020

Those of you in Florida - what is your feeling?

Lots of mixed messages in here in this report

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-joe-biden-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-479aead6cec84af5c2be72f9e3cfaea4


Florida Democrats post wide lead in mail-in ballot requests

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) — No state looms larger in the fight for the White House than Florida, where a loss by President Donald Trump would almost certainly block his path to reelection.

With just over a month until Election Day, Democrats are encouraged by a substantial lead in requests for mail-in ballots. But the party is losing its advantage in registering voters, which could complicate Joe Biden’s push for victory.

The Florida secretary of state’s office shows that 2.4 million Democrats have requested mail-in ballots compared with 1.6 million Republicans — a 767,000 request advantage as the coronavirus pandemic makes some voters leery of entering a polling place. It’s also a sharp change from 2016 when requests — and returned mail-in ballots — were evenly split. Trump narrowly won Florida over Hillary Clinton in 2016, and statewide elections are notoriously tight.

However, Republicans have gained some ground in voter registration. Both parties have about 5 million registered Floridians. Democrats have a 183,000-member advantage, down from 330,000 four years ago.
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MoonlitKnight

(1,584 posts)
2. It's going to be close
Tue Oct 6, 2020, 05:56 PM
Oct 2020

No surprise.

I think we are winning the crucial I-4 corridor.
The break towards Biden among seniors is excellent news.
Turnout is key and mail in voting so far looks promising.

As of today I see it being called for Biden by midnight.

Demsrule86

(68,774 posts)
5. I hope you are right...because that ends his cheating narrative completely.
Tue Oct 6, 2020, 05:58 PM
Oct 2020

And without Florida Trump can't win.

zipplewrath

(16,646 posts)
6. It's a mix
Tue Oct 6, 2020, 05:58 PM
Oct 2020

It's a big state and without knowing what is going on, those numbers are hard to interpret. Alot of losses are often attributed to people choosing to register as independents. I can say in my neck of the woods, where they claim the elections are decided, I'm seeing about a 2 to 1 ratio of Biden to Trump yard signs. Furthermore, I see clusters of Biden signs, but Trump signs tend to "the only one in the neighborhood".

OrlandoDem2

(2,072 posts)
7. Democrats has an overall edge in early voting in FL in 2018 but Republicans
Tue Oct 6, 2020, 06:00 PM
Oct 2020

came out of the woodwork on Election Day. The rest is history.

onethatcares

(16,205 posts)
8. there's a lot of Biden voters
Tue Oct 6, 2020, 06:04 PM
Oct 2020

they don't want to stick yard signs, put stickers on their cars or go out of their way to get their homes or vehicles vandalized. The trumpanistas are nucking futz.

So, many of us are quiet(ly) voting Biden/Harris It's the best way IMO.

I will say this though. Today, Tuesday the 6th, I noticed an absence of conman signs and flags on the main streets of Pinellas County.

Its like they aren't there.

csziggy

(34,139 posts)
14. My sister is in north Tampa and has not been able to get a yard sign
Tue Oct 6, 2020, 07:45 PM
Oct 2020

In fact she offered to BUY 100 signs for the local Democratic campaign office so they would have some to hand out and was REFUSED! She told me a week or two ago she went in and paid for the last sign they had, then a couple came in and were disappointed that there weren't any available. She talked to them and their yard is more visible than hers so she gave her sign to them.

She got permission from a property owner on a main road to put a big sign up on it, but she has not been able to get any kind of response from the Democratic office in her part of Hillsborough County to do anything about it. She is SOOOOOO frustrated with them.

She says that in her part of north Tampa there are tons of tRump signs. She would love to see more Biden signs, but apparently that is not an area they are trying to campaign in.

She also told me she participated in some marches that was organized by someone from Pinellas County but that woman told her she cannot drive over to do it in a different county anymore and that someone in Hillsborough County needs to pick up the baton and do their own organizing.

This is a woman who has been an activist since the 1960s, who fought WalMart to a standstill on their plans to build a store down the street from her, and who knows how to get things done. The only volunteer offer they gave her was to make calls, which she will not do since she gets lots of calls from the Democrats and HATES the calls. She would buy signs and hand them out, go door to door even now, and work her ass off, but they are not interested.

This reminds me of when I volunteered for the Kerry campaign and the Leon Democratic Party was only doing calls, had few signs, and didn't do much at all.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
9. I don't believe any poll with a high margin in Florida
Tue Oct 6, 2020, 06:08 PM
Oct 2020

I sense Biden leads narrowly. I'd be surprised if it's beyond 2 or 2.5 points. If that.

Florida has so many conflicting variables and demographics. They tend to shift in opposite directions to create a tight outcome, no matter the national climate. I see no reason to believe it will be different this time. Seniors are moving toward Biden but Hispanics are moving toward the incumbent.

One of the reasons Trump had reason to grow in Florida is that first time voters did not break for him as heavily in 2016 as in other states, and the GOP did not find as many of those white working class voters as in other states. But the GOP devoted the subsequent 4 years to doing exactly that. As I've mentioned here countless times they canvas all year long in Florida. All year every year. Outreach is persistent. They contact me relentlessly despite my Democratic registration. It is the reason the 2018 Florida outcomes didn't match the polling. It is also the reason for the tightening of the registration numbers. We get outworked in Florida. The cynical types somehow don't want to accept that.

As always, the Steve Schale twitter feed is the place to be early on election night. He'll dissect every county and point toward the outcome

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
11. I don't see the outward enthusiasm for Trump among republican voters that I saw in 2016.
Tue Oct 6, 2020, 06:56 PM
Oct 2020

I 2016, I couldn’t drive anywhere without seeing lots of Trump stickers on vehicles, now, I see one every once in a while.

It is going to boil down to turnout.

I am waiting to see what the in person early voting numbers look like, if Biden open up a sizable margin during that period, I believe he wins.

In 2016 early voting underperformed for Hillary, especially among African Americans. She didn’t build up a big enough buffer.

One wild card this time around are seniors. They are normally a reliable republican block, but with Trump all but saying that they should be sacrificed to COVID19, my guess is Biden does a lot better among them than Hillary did in 2016.

tavernier

(12,413 posts)
13. Here in the Keys I'm very disappointed with the DNC
Tue Oct 6, 2020, 07:40 PM
Oct 2020

or whoever it is that is responsible for PR. Hundreds of Trump signs and flags and shops everywhere and even a huge bus selling crap. I’ve seen six Biden signs total.

I have volunteered to deliver signs and/or put them out on the highway and left my name and number with several people.

It is really disgusting to drive down the highway and see sign after sign after sign and a few mini billboards with that ugly name, and nothing for our guy. Although John Landau, film producer of Avatar, is a neighbor, and I was tickled to see a Biden sign on his property.

lpbk2713

(42,772 posts)
15. If yard signs count for much then Joe has the edge.
Tue Oct 6, 2020, 07:48 PM
Oct 2020


Where I live (Polk County) usually goes red. But it looks like not that many people want to show their support for the asshole.

mcar

(42,452 posts)
16. As an active Florida Democrat in a red county
Tue Oct 6, 2020, 07:49 PM
Oct 2020

I am cautiously optimistic. These numbers are so far beyond what we got in '16 and '18 that it's very hopeful.

The FL Democratic party has done amazing work in increasing the #s of vote by mail applications among registered Democrats - and remember - VBM is one of the things we do right here.

Still, it's Florida.

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