Biden now has a 83% chance of winning according to 538

[Jamesyu]

A slew of great polls for Biden yesterday, I wouldn't be surprised if Biden's chance of winning goes up to 90% by election day.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[Johnny2X2X]

1. If the election were tomorrow Biden might be at 99%

He's way ahead and the 83% not being higher is a reflection of there still being enough time for some things to change.

And the trend right now is a growing lead, so that 83% could be 90% very soon.

And Nate Silver's model is more cautious than other ones out there. It's why I'm watching it, there are other models that already have Biden in the mid 90s.

[mucifer]

2. I'm forgetting what the 2016 numbers were at election time do you know that?

[Demsrule86]

3. The important number is that Hillary was never over 50%.

But Biden's numbers overall are better.

[obamanut2012]

4. Hillary was 71.6 on Election Day

She had been much higher before the Comey thing.

[mucifer]

5. I wonder if she was at 83 around now. But I do think people are very fed up

[Johnny2X2X]

6. Today is the anniversary of the Access Hollywood tape being released

Hillary would be in the mid to high 80s in a week or so, but then the Comey election interference happened.

2020 is not 2016. There is no Gary Johnson first and foremost, Johnson was still polling at 7% at this time in 2016, but he would get only 3%, that 4% was hidden Trump support as they all voted for Trump on election day, the models didn't take that into account. The race was virtually tied in 2016 27 days out because of this.

And yes, Hillary was 71.1% on election day, better than a 2-1 favorite. However, it's apples to oranges, the models have changed, the polling methods have improved, and Joe's lead is steadier than hers ever was and he's over 50% in every poll now.

Basically people corrected things and Joe is still at 83% which might translate to 95% in the old model. Joe is up 9.0 in the composite, Hillary had a brief 6.6 point lead, but there was still a Gary Johnson poll support that hid Trump voters in it.

For the record, I love the apprehension and skepticism, there were millions of people who stayed home in 2016 because they thought Hillary would win no matter what. That will not happen this time.

[mucifer]

8. wow thanks for all that info Johnny!

[malaise]

7. It will be 95% by Halloween

[USALiberal]

9. +1000! nt

[durablend]

10. Is 538 accounting for the Titanic cheating you know Trump is doing?