These polls have been GREAT, but

[Proud liberal 80]

We all know the race is probably more like 50%-45% in favor of Biden. So in a couple of weeks when the polls reflect the reality, then I am bracing myself for the inevitable "Trump is surging", "The race is tightening", "Biden is losing support among ____ demographic" MSM narrative.

[MFM008]

1. Not especially

A minimum of 7 points maximum 10.
Thats my calculation.

[Proud liberal 80]

7. yeah

I actually think it is probably 52-45, but I was giving a conservative estimate on what I believe the polls and their "likely" voter models will say in a couple weeks

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

2. There is absolutely nothing to suggest it's a 5 point race.

Whatsoever. Never has been, never will be.

[secondwind]

3. Stay positive, there's no point in posting things like this.

[Proud liberal 80]

6. actually

this is a way I am staying positive instead of having a freakout in a couple weeks

[secondwind]

11. Aww. Everything will be alright, you will see!

[BannonsLiver]

4. Who's we?

[Stallion]

5. Even a a Very Conservative Estimate would be Biden +10

with a high volume of quality polls. Of course, Biden probably needs to win by +2-3% to overcome electoral college

[budkin]

8. No way he "surges" now

That would have already been happening.

[Proud liberal 80]

9. wasn't this the week of the Access Hollywood poll surge?

[budkin]

21. Yeah but it was also the day Wikileaks released the DNC emails

This isn't 2016. It's 2020.

[Proud liberal 80]

10. wasn't this the week of the Access Hollywood poll surge?

[BannonsLiver]

13. What about this feels like Access Hollywood?

You realize there are 211,000 dead people and the WH alone has more cases than several countries?

[calguy]

12. I love the polls but I won't sleep well until the actual vote count reflects the poll numbers.

[Doreen]

14. Are we forgetting foriegn interference?

There is the voter suppression and cheating also. Yeah, for the most part Biden is ahead but so was Hillary until a few hours before the day was over. Yes, Biden has a higher count than Hillary but that might not mean a thing. I am happy Biden is where he is at but those things I mentioned are still a possible factor.

[regnaD kciN]

17. And shy Trump voters! And Republican state legislatures! And SCOTUS! And...

Let’s face it – factor everything in, and Trump’s already won re-election. We just haven’t realized it yet.

[Doreen]

20. OK OK I sound all paranoid but, but, but oh I

don't know. Guess the point is that I do not know.

[Demsrule86]

15. No I don't know that...what is the point of all the doom and gloom?

[Tribetime]

16. I think its about 11 % now

[Laelth]

18. I think 54-43 is more realistic at this time.

I am not expecting to see much tightening. If anything, Biden’s lead will grow.



-Laelth

[Silent3]

19. Exactly how do "we" know this?

Even if polls do tighten, the Biden lead now is the Biden lead now. A poll is a snapshot of the time when it is taken, so even if the polls are closer to 5% on election day, that doesn't mean the gap isn't actually, really, currently a ~10% gap.

And while it's common in many elections, it is not as if poll-tightening is some sort of inevitable rule of physics. Sometimes a candidate simply collapses, and the polling gap widens as election day approaches.

While events in the news can always surprise us and change things, and Trump has obviously surprised us before, that doesn't mean what we see now isn't what is actually happening: a Trump implosion.