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New New Hampshire poll (St. Anselm): Biden +12. Shaheen +14
New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque summarized the results, saying, “This is the first significant movement we’re seen in the presidential race so far, with Joe Biden now preferred by New Hampshire likely voters over Trump by a 12-point margin at 53%- 41%. Until now, Biden’s lead has held steady at between 7 and 8 points, and this represents a 4-point improvement over August, when he held a 51%-43% lead.
“This poll was conducted shortly after the presidential debate and while the news of Trump’s COVID diagnosis was breaking. However, neither of these events seems to have damaged Trump politically: his image and job approval have remained steady throughout the year in the low 40’s. Trump’s current image is at 42%-58% favorable and his job approval is at 44%-56%, right in line with previous polls.
“What has changed is Biden’s image, which has improved from 49%-50% favorable in August to 53%-47% in this poll. With a net positive image in contrast to Trump’s net negative, Biden has begun to assemble enough support to move into a double-digit lead. Democratic and Republican support for their respective candidates has remained steady; Biden’s increased lead has come from swing voters, who have gone from supporting Trump 43%-31% to supporting him 44%-24% since August.
“This is the first real volatility we’ve seen in this race, and while it suggests that Biden has some momentum for now, swing voters can be prone to changing their minds. However, the challenge for Trump is that while Biden has virtually unanimous support among Democrats, only 87% of Republican voters are committed to their party’s nominee. This is a split that has held throughout our polling on this race. Trump will need to solidify his support among Republicans while bringing swing voters back if he is to close the gap over the coming weeks.
“This poll was conducted shortly after the presidential debate and while the news of Trump’s COVID diagnosis was breaking. However, neither of these events seems to have damaged Trump politically: his image and job approval have remained steady throughout the year in the low 40’s. Trump’s current image is at 42%-58% favorable and his job approval is at 44%-56%, right in line with previous polls.
“What has changed is Biden’s image, which has improved from 49%-50% favorable in August to 53%-47% in this poll. With a net positive image in contrast to Trump’s net negative, Biden has begun to assemble enough support to move into a double-digit lead. Democratic and Republican support for their respective candidates has remained steady; Biden’s increased lead has come from swing voters, who have gone from supporting Trump 43%-31% to supporting him 44%-24% since August.
“This is the first real volatility we’ve seen in this race, and while it suggests that Biden has some momentum for now, swing voters can be prone to changing their minds. However, the challenge for Trump is that while Biden has virtually unanimous support among Democrats, only 87% of Republican voters are committed to their party’s nominee. This is a split that has held throughout our polling on this race. Trump will need to solidify his support among Republicans while bringing swing voters back if he is to close the gap over the coming weeks.
https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/NHIOP/Polls/October%202020%20FullResults.pdf
