Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows 386,000 additional jobs

[ProSense]

Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows 386,000 additional jobs

by Bill McBride

This morning the BLS released the preliminary annual benchmark revision showing an additional 386,000 payroll jobs as of March 2012. The final revision will be published next February when the January 2012 employment report is released on February 1, 2013. Usually the preliminary estimate is pretty close to the final benchmark estimate.

The annual revision is benchmarked to state tax records. From the BLS:

Establishment survey benchmarking is done on an annual basis to a population derived primarily from the administrative file of employees covered by unemployment insurance (UI). The time required to complete the revision process—from the full collection of the UI population data to publication of the revised industry estimates—is about 10 months. The benchmark adjustment procedure replaces the March sample-based employment estimates with UI-based population counts for March. The benchmark therefore determines the final employment levels ...

Using the preliminary benchmark estimate, this means that payroll employment in March 2012 was 386,000 higher than originally estimated. In February 2013, the payroll numbers will be revised up to reflect this estimate. The number is then "wedged back" to the previous revision (March 2011).

This means the BLS under counted payroll jobs by 386,000 as of March 2012. This preliminary estimate showed an additional 453,000 private sector jobs, but 67,000 fewer government jobs (as of March 2012).

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The following table shows the benchmark revisions since 1979.

- more -

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#1QwGzZbTDHh2YFta.99

[dkf]

1. Why in the world can't we get better real time data?

You would think with all this computerization we would have a better handle on things.

[gcomeau]

2. That would require...

...every company reporting in real time to the government when they hired anyone. Which just doesn't happen.

[dkf]

4. Or a link to state records which is where they are getting data from.

[gcomeau]

9. ..and the state records...

...need to be *real time updated*. Which doesn't happen. Which is why the numbers keep getting revised later.

[ProSense]

3. Yeah, I can't wait

to hear all the complaints about an adjustment that has been done every year for decades, especially when no on complained about the negative adjustments in 2009 and 2010.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. So What Will The Sept and Oct Reports Look Like?

For now that's all that's matters...

[ProSense]

6. I don't know, but

the August report didn't work out as Romney planned.

[ProSense]

7. Wow, good news and

it's like a funeral in here.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. I Bumped It But I'm A Linear Thinker

At the moment I'm only focused on the next two jobs reports.