i think i finally understand pelosi's push for the 25th amendment:

[unblock]

i've struggled to understand pelosi pursuing the 25th amendment for donnie. obviously, he's in need of the boot, but constitutionally, the 25th amendment requires rather more than removal via impeachment, which has already failed.

if pelosi thought we could get pence, half the cabinet, and 2/3rds of both houses to agree, which is what is required for the 25th, then we would have already just removed him via impeachment, which only requires 1/2 the house and 2/3rds of the senate. much easier.

and the same sick political logic that led republicans to block removal via impeachment remains.

until donnie loses in november.

then he simply becomes a madman bent on destroying anything and everything, and republican interests turn to damage control and figuring out how to make best use of the lame duck period.

at that point, donnie becomes virtually all downside and virtually no upside for republicans. they need someone reliable to nominate and approve as many judges as they can in the couple months remaining, and they no longer benefit from all of donnie's chaos. it only represents downside risk for businesses and rich people.


it clicked when i saw this opinion by krugman: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214253445

the lame duck session, once donnie loses, will be a disaster *for republican interests*, not just for america.

at that point, i think republicans would be open to removing him and replacing him with a more stable pence, and the political cover of removing him for medical reasons (25th) would be more palatable than removing him for having done anything wrong (impeachment).

pence would go along with it as he gets to be president. republicans in congress, or at least the senate, might go along with it so they can ensure more judges. the cabinet might still be a problem as they are still loyal to donnie, but part of pelosi's plan may be to replace the cabinet's role in the 25th amendment with a new independent commission, something that is permitted by the 25th amendment.

this would require overriding the inevitable veto from donnie, but if she can wrangle the 2/3rds of each house that she needs to kick donnie out via the 25th anyway, then those same congresspeople are enough to override a veto, enabling them to bypass the cabinet.


so i'm now thinking that the push for the 25th amendment now is not about october electoral politics, it's about kicking donnie out asap after he loses and before he can destroy america out of vengeance for his humiliating defeat.

[Mike 03]

1. This makes a whole lot of sense.

Good work.

[Statistical]

2. I think it is good Pelosi is increasing visibility on this but there is zero chance this passes

certainly not with a veto-proof majority.

This is drawing attention to the issue not a legislative solution.

If Pence goes along it is likely the cabinet will too. That makes Pence acting President for 21 days which at least reduces the damage Trump can do even if not confirmed by Congress.

Of course anyone thinking Pence will do the right thing is just fooling themselves. Trump could start shooting white house staffers in the face on national TV and I have my doubts that Pence would invoke the 25th.

If you had the votes to pass that you would have the votes to simply impeach Trump and that unlike an 25th legislation completely bypasses Pence.

[unblock]

6. this is why i struggled to understand it at first, because it really doesn't help us electorally

it doesn't really increase visibility that he's sick, and it undermines the eventual mandate we win by winning in november.
if donnie is widely seen as medically unfit for office, then a biden victory doesn't have any great meaning. republicans and the media would be able to say he won because donnie was unhealthy or dumb luck of timing of a temporary illneess.

but if the media doesn't over-cover donnie's health, then a biden victory represents a clear rejection of not just donnie as an individual, but of the whole republican party and their hate and contempt for the majority of americans.

and yeah, there's no way in hell republicans will go along with any of this prior to the election.


but as soon as donnie loses, especially if he loses big, the whole dynamic changes. at that point, i think republicans may well prefer pence to serve out the last couple months.

[Statistical]

9. It doesn't matter if republicans prefer it if Pence doesn't.

Pence has zero spine. Pence will not invoke the 25th. People hoping and dreaming Pence will do the right thing are delusional.

In Pence's mind he is going to rally the Trumpers and win the Presidency back in 2024. That won't happen if he uses the 25th against his master.

This bill will not pass and even if it did Pence absolutely will not lift a single finger against his master.

[patricia92243]

8. There is a very real chance that Pence would love being President

if for only 21 days. His pension would be more, get his own presidential library, earn a lot more on speeches when his time is over. etc. etc.

Nobody ever remembers a VP. A President - good or bad - will go down in history forever. Big temptation for Pence.

[idziak4ever1234]

19. Yeah... Doesn't he think God told him that it was a sure thing?

[Lonestarblue]

22. Pence might go along because he wants to be president.

If Trump is allowed to wreak as much destruction as possible after losing, voters will blame Republicans, and they have a lot of Senate seats up in 2022. Pence will run for president in 2024. He would have a better claim by helping to kick Trump out and preventing the damage. It all depends on the cabinet. Not all would go along. For example, Pompeo will also run for president in 2024. He might refuse just to prevent Pence from becoming president even for a few days.

I’m eager to hear what Pelosi has to say.

[Statistical]

24. Pence needs Trumpers to get the nomination.

Last edited Fri Oct 9, 2020, 10:36 AM - Edit history (1)

Now hardcore Trumpers aren't the entire Republican party but they are a significant portion. At least for the next couple election cycles it is unlikely anyone gets the nomination without appealing to Trumpers.

If Pence boots Trump out of office his political career is over. Now just between you and me Pence's political career is likely over regardless and since that is the case he has little to lose and should invoke the 25th. However Pence strikes me as one of those idiots who think they are the hero of their own story.

Look I will be happy to be proven wrong. Even Pence would be better than Trump in a lame duck session but I don't see it happening.

[BComplex]

53. I think trumpers would rather have Pompeo because of his tough-guy white supremacist line

of attack that pence seems to be softer on.

[COL Mustard]

27. It's Uncharted Territory

That's for sure.

[PJMcK]

3. Good thinking, unblock

All that you wrote makes sense.

Speaker Pelosi is far too savvy to engage in a fool's errand and your point about the Congressional commission being allowed under the 25th is just what I was thinking, too. If she can twist enough Republicans' arms, your scenario seems very plausible.

Enjoy your weekend.

[tanyev]

4. First and foremost, she is bringing it into the public conversation.

The media has been reluctant to 'go there' on Trump so she has to lead them there. Republicans can either twist themselves into knots explaining how Donny's perfectly fit and sane, or they can get on board.

[WhiteTara]

5. Very astute, thanks

[cbdo2007]

7. Maybe true, but I think this action specifically is to get an honest medical evaluation...

via the independent commission. Our leaders need to know the true mental/physical state of the President and that is impossible to determine without an honest evaluation from commission chosen doctors. If Trump doesn't go along with it, that will give them grounds for removal as you direct above.

[localroger]

10. I don't think Pelosi would be doing this without Republican encouragement

I suspect the White House COVID mess and Trump's painfully inappropriate reaction to it have been the last straw for a lot of Republicans who don't dare say so in public -- yet. Pelosi wouldn't be going out on this limb if there were no possible constructive result. As top Dem though she can say what the Republicans aren't supposed to be allowed to think, and start getting the chess pieces lined up in case Donnie tries to burn down the country after a humiliating defeat in the election. The real hope is probably that between electoral defeat, the then public turning of many Republicans, and the Dems waving the 25th, Donnie can be persuaded to pick up his toys and go home to declare victory as he has always done in the past. It doesn't take 1/2 or 2/3 of anybody to accept a resignation.

[Laelth]

11. That's a reasonable theory. n/t

-Laelth

[JI7]

12. I'm not sure how much Republicans would go along with it but I do agree that it has more to do

with AFTER the election and him losing and wanting to destroy everything.

I still question whether Trump has something on Pence also .

[Kitchari]

13. Sounds reasonable

Very helpful theory - thanks!

[Progressive dog]

14. This is about putting the Republicans on record

as supporting a madman. Pelosi knows that there is no possibilty of removing Trump from office, no matter how deranged he obviously is. If he died, they would drag his corpse out for photo ops and claim that he was resting.

[wiggs]

15. would be good for the country and might rehabilitate the gop to a degree, except for

the likely scorched earth tirade from Trump. We know he could burn all his collaborators...they all own each other. He could expose the crimes and the immorality, especially after getting pardons from Pence. Plus, he could threaten to pull the rabid voters off to a new cult party, leaving the gop with nothing.

For this to happen, they'd have to get Trump on board with a few billions in payoff. And if he goes along, he'd likely prefer to resign rather than be removed.

So I see a golden parachute resignation before a 25th amendment removal. But perhaps that wouldn't stop nancy from dutifully trying the 25th, since it's a worthy, just effort. Lots of good testimony from generals, mental health professionals, former cabinet members, former biographers, his niece.

But we aren't past November 3 yet and they will do whatever they can to avoid getting there.

[LuckyCharms]

16. Good analysis. Thank you. n/t

[2naSalit]

17. That's very much like...

What I concluded last night. She's making preparations within the parameters of her authority for the post election crazy. November 10th or near then could be when he is dealt with in some way.

[lostnfound]

18. Once she has a viable threat of doing so, the game changes.

There is a real risk that the drug addled and angry Donny will take devastating, global-peace-disrupting actions out of spite. Some of the GOP would rather not have the unpredictability of those scenarios.

But also, the real possibility of both Pres and VP becoming incapacitated at the same time in an unclear manner and leaving the supremely corrupt Jarad (playing the role of Wilson’s wife) might be too much for even some of the GOP.

[George II]

20. She's not trying to invoke the 25th Amendment, she's introducing a bill that would enable....

....Congress to have a say in invoking it in the future.

A lot of people think she's going to try to take some action against trump, but that's not true. She just wants to give Congress a role in future situations like this.

[SlogginThroughIt]

21. It has always been about keeping it in focus.

[getagrip_already]

23. In the end, this is an impeachable cause.....

The potus can be removed for incompetency through impeachment. To frame it, a lot of legwork needs to be done.

Pelosi needs to try to get pence to do it via the 25th first for political reasons. Once that fails, she can play the "this is the only path left to us" card. The hearings in the house would be brutal.

Yes, it failed before. But as you noted, post election will be a much different world assuming he loses and the senate flips. You could see horse trading going on behind the scenes- "Ok, we will remove him, but you have to agree to not pack the court or prosecute republicans who broke laws"....

Politics always comes with a price tag, at least where republicans are concerned.

[stopbush]

25. Not gonna read a post that can't be bothered to follow standard rules for capitalization.

Lazy ass bs.

[groundloop]

30. Here, I've translated it for you :

I've struggled to understand pelosi pursuing the 25th amendment for donnie. Obviously, he's in need of the boot, but constitutionally, the 25th amendment requires rather more than removal via impeachment, which has already failed.

If Pelosi thought we could get Pence, half the cabinet, and 2/3rds of both houses to agree, which is what is required for the 25th, then we would have already just removed him via impeachment, which only requires 1/2 the house and 2/3rds of the senate. Much easier.

And the same sick political logic that led republicans to block removal via impeachment remains.

Until Donnie loses in November.

Then he simply becomes a madman bent on destroying anything and everything, and republican interests turn to damage control and figuring out how to make best use of the lame duck period.

At that point, Donnie becomes virtually all downside and virtually no upside for republicans. They need someone reliable to nominate and approve as many judges as they can in the couple months remaining, and they no longer benefit from all of Donnie's chaos. It only represents downside risk for businesses and rich people.


It clicked when i saw this opinion by Krugman: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214253445

The lame duck session, once Donnie loses, will be a disaster *for republican interests*, not just for America.

At that point, I think republicans would be open to removing him and replacing him with a more stable Pence, and the political cover of removing him for medical reasons (25th) would be more palatable than removing him for having done anything wrong (impeachment).

Pence would go along with it as he gets to be President. republicans in Congress, or at least the Senate, might go along with it so they can ensure more judges. The cabinet might still be a problem as they are still loyal to Donnie, but part of Pelosi's plan may be to replace the cabinet's role in the 25th amendment with a new independent commission, something that is permitted by the 25th amendment.

This would require overriding the inevitable veto from Donnie, but if she can wrangle the 2/3rds of each house that she needs to kick Donnie out via the 25th anyway, then those same Congresspeople are enough to override a veto, enabling them to bypass the cabinet.


So I'm now thinking that the push for the 25th amendment now is not about October electoral politics, it's about kicking Donnie out asap after he loses and before he can destroy america out of vengeance for his humiliating defeat.
45

[unblock]

42. Yeah, because when it comes to matters like removal of a president, capital letters are important.

I'm sure e.e.cummings would agree as well.

We all have our writing style and mine includes generally ignoring the shift key. I happen to be on my iPhone now so it does what it does, whatever, I don't care.

Personally, I think capital letters are generally useless at best and convey negative emotions at worst.

But to each his/her own, I have no problem with your writing style or pretty much anyone else's. I'm more interested in the ideas conveyed.

[OnDoutside]

49. Capital Punishment ?

[unblock]

51. In a manner of speaking, yes!

[Wash. state Desk Jet]

60. your view is well written , content is what matters, call it rough draft if you must to

satisfy those who are compelled to correct and serve ! Grammar police !

[Fiendish Thingy]

26. The VP and cabinet can suspend the prez in 21 day segments without congress

The first 21 day segment, if timed sometime next week, would remove Trump from power through the election, ensuring his defeat. If they couldn’t get 2/3 of congress to support removing him for the remainder of his term, Pence and cabinet could reassert the president’s unfitness in a new letter to the senate...lather, rinse, repeat in 21 day chunks until Jan 20. If Trump’s unfitness wasn’t apparent the first suspension, it would become increasingly apparent in following attempts, as he melts down in real time for all to see.

[Celerity]

59. can they just keep redoing the VP/Cabinet suspension letter gambit over and over?

[Fiendish Thingy]

65. I don't see anything in the Constitution that prohibits it

A president might argue that each 21 day suspension must be for a separate incapacity, not a continuance of the original issue/incident, but there is no precedent, because that clause of the 25th has never been invoked before.

To get to Inauguration Day, it would take 4-5 21 day suspensions, although after the first, Trump might be so unhinged and damaged, the Congress just might reach 2/3 support.

[Celerity]

66. let us all hope it doesn't come to that, and if it does, then the world will be on tenterhooks

A nuclear event is at least somewhat remotely possible with a truly deranged Trump breaking down into a raw lather of psychosis.

[oregonjen]

28. Under the 25th, would a pardon be off the table, if Pence takes over?

I want to see drumpf prosecuted for his crimes.

[unblock]

29. No. Pence could pardon Donnie for any federal crimes.

Of course, I fully expect Donnie to pet pence be president for a few hours on January 20 anyway precisely for this.

[Cozmo]

31. What happened to the press event that was scheduled for today about the 25th Amendment?

Nancy inferred that it was to take place today at 10:15 ET

[True Blue American]

37. Cspan 1

Covered the whole thing. Cable did not.

[JCMach1]

32. Only add legit issue of Covid and nuclear codes.

I am on same meds 7 Days out of hospital. I can assure you they are lying and dangerously covering up his disability.

[shanti]

62. Hope you're feeling better!

[themaguffin]

33. It ain't happening. Yes, with a loss & election done, some Rs might be brave, but not nearly enough

[Sherman A1]

35. Agreed

[yaesu]

34. MSNBC just basically wrote it off as political & took the side of McTurtle, remember, this corporate

network is no friend to the left.

[themaguffin]

44. It's not happening. Period. Don't blame MSNBC for that.

[Silent3]

36. Even with Trump losing, however, Republicans will want chaos and destruction

Not just being vengeful, they will want Biden to inherit the worst wreck possible. They will do anything to make sure that no matter what Biden can manage to do, the public will be unhappy with the results, and put Republicans back in power in 2022. At which point Republicans will block all further progress for the next two years.

And, unfortunately, the American public has proven they're capable of that level of political amnesia time and again, and would be likely to reward Republicans for using such tactics.

[LymphocyteLover]

41. possible-- unless Repubs wake the fuck up from their delusions and put country first

I think it depends on just on how much damage they see and how much it hurts them

[Silent3]

43. I've grown way too cynical to expect that

No, the only hope I can see for Republicans working for the public good is that doing the right thing to help the country has a self-serving side to it that I'm not seeing yet.

[LymphocyteLover]

45. Agree--- they would only do it if their own self-interest

was really negatively impacted. They might feel it more if Trump gets absolutely blown out in the election.

[True Blue American]

38. Pelosi on MSNBC at 11!

[Thekaspervote]

39. I respect and have full confidence in speaker Pelosi and even if I don't understand I don't question

[LymphocyteLover]

40. that sounds right. I saw some nervous people last night thinking this ploy

could piss off Republicans and centrists and hurt Biden. I don't see it but I guess some people are very worried about it.

[cayugafalls]

46. I want him to go to jail, but I suppose removal for mental reasons is a good start.

Mental weakness might just be what drives him over the edge.

The picture of a drooling, broke, incarcerated trump is so delicious, I won't need dessert for years...

[ThoughtCriminal]

47. Lame Duck Republicans

Are not going to be looking at damage control. They are going to be practicing whatever "Scorched Earth" they can pull off and planning nothing but obstruction in hopes of repeating 2010.

[eggplant]

48. Important Note: This move would make Pence "Acting President", not "President".

Trump would have to drop dead or resign for Pence to get the brass ring. A subtle point, but it means Pence doesn't get to be "46". That honor will go to Biden.

[OnDoutside]

50. Interesting, however, Trump doesn't scare them, it's his nutjob supporters that they are afraid of

losing, and Trump could turn around to land the blame on the GOP.

[unblock]

55. agreed, but donnie had been behaving like a fairly predictable authoritarian

using his power to keep other republicans in line.

the way he's becoming more erratic and his passion for vengeance suggests that after the election he might blame other republicans for not helping him enough, or in any event just try to burn the place down out of spite.

at that point, the interests of republican politicians shifts to just get rid of him, and his illness, treatment, and the 25th give them political cover to say that support him and what he stands for but he's just not medically fit.

as i said, though, those same reasons undermine the meaning and impact of a biden victory,....

[OnDoutside]

56. They could go either way...remember the story that McConnell was waiting to see if Trump had an

upturn by Labor Day, and then they would go their own way without him. That day came and went, and they still haven't jettisoned him....maybe in another week or two ?

[Qutzupalotl]

52. Those are sound reasons, but Pelosi said this was not about Trump.

She said it was for future presidents.

But now that it’s being talked about again, maybe, maybe, they’ll be open to it in the lame duck. God knows his condition is only going to get worse.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

54. I'm thinking that, if it's not, it ought to be, at the very least,

about an already obvious madman, now literally on steroids, in command of our military and the nuclear codes. Ffs.

[Blue Owl]

57. K&R

[eppur_se_muova]

58. Try to be optimistic -- he could lose the election AND die of the virus.

Then Uglicans would have no chance to exculpate themselves of their support of him, and would remain in bad odor w/voters for a decade.

[peggysue2]

64. LOL!!

I like the way you think!

[BainsBane]

61. It's about removing a drugged madman

from office, at least temporarily. Pelosi isn't playing games with the constitution.

[canetoad]

63. You are overthinking

Nancy is:

a) Making a statement about his lack of capabilities for general consumption

b) Reminding the US that a lapdog VP and acting cabinet, in thrall of an authoritarian president, are hardly going to exectute the 25th.

c) Providing a remedy to the above.

[onenote]

67. I think you overestimate republicans

There is no chance the Raskin/Pelosi bill gets passed and implemented during the lame duck. Have you read the bill? It sets up a complex process. It will be the subject of lengthy hearings before it ever comes to a vote. And even if there was enough time for it to be considered by and passed by both the House and even if you were right that there were enough votes in the Senate to overcome a republican filibuster and pass it there, it will be vetoed.

Could Pence and the cabinet start the process without waiting for the medical commission? Sure, but the Raskin/Pelosi bill gives them cover not to do so ... they can say that if this was a situation where the president was unconscious and literally unable to perform the duties of the presidency, they might act, but the question of his mental capacity --- not whether he can perform his duties but whether he can perform them rationally -- is not something they are in a position to decide.

There around 78 days from election day to inauguration day. The likelihood of Republicans helping Pelosi to fast track a bill that she herself has publicly said is not intended to apply to Trump -- zero.

Remember -- the standard under the 25th is whether the president can perform his duties. Disagreeing with what he does or how he does it doesn't mean he's unable to do it.